David Boyajian sends this report on the latest instance of Azerbaijani aggression towards Armenia.
Avoiding World War III in the Caucasus
by David Boyajian
August 13, 2020
“The Caucasus is Ground Zero in the New Cold War between the U.S. and Russia.”
I wrote that several years ago, and it’s still true, particularly after Christian Armenia decisively repulsed a mid-July attack by Muslim Azerbaijan.
Perhaps dozens of Azeris died in the battles, including a major-general, colonel, and two majors. Armenia reported far fewer deaths and captured a new defensive position, even though Azerbaijan possesses a bigger arsenal, quadruple the GDP, and more than triple Armenia’s population.
Azerbaijan attacked Armenia’s northeastern border and has done so before. Typically, though, Azerbaijan attacks Artsakh (Karabagh), the de facto-independent Armenian-majority region that voted some thirty years ago for freedom from Azerbaijan, which rejects that vote.
Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin deceitfully annexed Artsakh and the ancient Armenian region of Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan in the 1920s. Far from being ancient itself, Azerbaijan was invented only in 1918.
Why should any of this matter to the rest of the world?
Why It Matters
- Major gas and oil pipelines originate in Azerbaijan. They cross Georgia and NATO member Turkey with fuel bound for Europe and elsewhere. Georgia and Azerbaijan are thereby linked to the West. These pipelines are at risk as they pass only about 12 to 30 miles from the July fighting and from Artsakh.
- The Caucasus is the US/NATO/EU’s doorway (via Turkey) into the energy-rich Caspian Sea Basin and then into Russia’s vulnerable Turkic-Muslim underbelly in Central Asia. Russia regards this as an existential threat.
- Armenia enjoys excellent relations with the US/NATO/EU. But for security reasons it aligns itself with the nearest major Christian power: Russia. In sympathy with its Turkic Azerbaijani ally, Turkey has closed its border with Armenia since 1994. Armenia, therefore, has become the geopolitical pivot point for whoever wishes to dominate the Caucasus.
- Turkey has long threatened Armenia, and has placed itself squarely on Azerbaijan’s side in the recent conflict. That may produce a Turkish confrontation with Russia, in addition to those in Syria and Libya.
- Azerbaijan is threatening to bomb Armenia’s Metsamor nuclear power plant. This would spread deadly radiation to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Turkey, and elsewhere.
Armenian-Western relations go back thousands of years. The US/NATO/EU (we’ll term it the “Western Bloc”) has been very friendly to Armenia and Artsakh and aided them economically for decades.
Landlocked Armenia, however, depends on Russia for most of its gas and weapons. Moscow also controls much of Armenia’s energy network.
Armenia (population 3 million), nevertheless, remains under threat from Azerbaijan (population 10 million) and Turkey (population 82 million) since the USSR’s dissolution in 1991.
Armenia under Siege
Turkey committed genocide against Armenians in 1915-23. The Armenian Highlands and everything else Armenian, particularly in what are now eastern and southern Turkey, were destroyed or confiscated. Azeris joined in that genocide in the Caucasus.
The Armenian Genocide isn’t mere history. The threat of Genocide 2.0 always looms.
Turkey and Azerbaijan (motto: “two countries, one nation”) won’t come to terms with Armenia’s existence. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev says all of Armenia should be part of Azerbaijan — without Armenians, of course.
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