Our Bangkok correspondent H. Numan reports on the latest geopolitical news from the Far East.
China, the clown state
by H. Numan
You’re not going to believe me. Recently new corruption scandals have rocked the People’s Republic of China. The commander of the Chinese Rocket Forces disappeared. A bunch of army, navy and air force top commanders also vanished in Nacht und Nebel. That happened a couple of months ago, but now they are all officially charged with corruption. Not just a bit of corruption. Corruption on a scale that baffles even Russians. China is very busy trying to become a superpower. They have the biggest army in the world, the biggest navy in the Pacific… but… it’s of little or no use. It is all falling apart.
Thailand
Before I continue, two related stories from Thailand. The new Srettha government was planning to allow Chinese police stations in tourist areas. Real People’s Police offices with semi-diplomatic status, where Thai officials would be welcome only on invitation. All to accommodate and support Chinese tourists, of course. What else?
A part of the soft power of China is tourism. Thailand relies heavily — as do many other nations in the region —on Chinese tourists. About one-third of all foreign tourists used to be Chinese. They vanished during and because of the Covid pandemic. Now the pandemic is over, Thailand wants them back. Apparently, at all costs.
That gave the Chinese government a nice opportunity. China is, as we all know, a communist dictatorship. Its citizens cannot freely travel, not in China itself (you need internal passports) and certainly not abroad. Percentage-wise, not that many Chinese can afford to travel abroad, but with +1 billion you have a lot of tourists who can. Most Chinese travel in groups. That’s a pretty common way to travel in Asia anyway, but in China there is another reason. A group is much easier to control than individual travelers. And China can control who gets this pot of gold. Provided they are nice to the Chinese government, that is. For example, micro states in the Pacific who acknowledge Taiwan suddenly didn’t get any tourists. Until they cut formal relations with Taiwan. Then, all of a sudden all ‘problems’ were solved and the flood of tourists came back.
People’s Police stations in Thailand
The Chinese government wanted real Chinese People’s Police stations in Thailand. Once that happened, all restrictions would be lifted. To manage Chinese tourists? Of course! What else? To control Thailand? The very idea! Thailand is an independent country, and proud about it. This created so much of a nationwide outcry that PM Srettha hastily withdrew those plans.
The Kra Canal
We’re not done yet, because China is big. They have more irons in the fire. The next one is ongoing, with a (small) possibility of succeeding. The Kra canal. You all know the most famous canals of the world, being the Panama and Suez canals. Another maritime choke point is the Strait of Malacca. At the moment maritime traffic is at a maximum. Large ships have to make reservations in order to cross it. For China it is of vital importance. All oil and most commerce to and from China has to pass the strait. It’s very easy to block by just about anyone. India, for example, is fortifying the Andaman Isles just to be able to do that. A canal through the narrow part of Thailand in the deep south might solve that problem for China, and give them another route. Which could just as easily be blocked, but now you have two passages to control.
That would be the Kra Canal. That’s a centuries-old dream of Thailand/Siam/Ayutthaya. They always wanted such a canal. However, it’s far more difficult to construct than the Panama canal, so nothing ever happened. Many projects were initiated, but no shovel ever hit the dirt. As long as I have been in Thailand (30 years!) rumors about reviving the Kra canal came and went.
This time the Chinese government is putting a lot of pressure on Thailand to construct one. Money is not an issue. Engineering can be done by the Chinese. We finance it too, on (for China) excellent conditions. Just allow us to build the damn thing!
I doubt very much whether it will ever happen. Singapore isn’t exactly thrilled to see half of their maritime trade sail away. A small state, to be sure, but with a lot of commercial power. America won’t be overjoyed either. Biden or Trump doesn’t matter. A Kra canal is not in the interests of America.
Another problem that will rear its ugly head: the revolting southern muslim provinces. They are located exactly on the other side of the proposed canal. The first problem will be unruly muslims milking the project for all they can. The second problem is that once the canal is there, independence is no longer a pipe dream. Rather something that almost certainly will happen when those provinces are separated by a huge canal from the mainland. A lot of water will flow through the Chao Phraya before it will happen. If at all.