Our Bangkok correspondent H. Numan reports on the latest geopolitical news from the Far East.

China, the clown state

by H. Numan

You’re not going to believe me. Recently new corruption scandals have rocked the People’s Republic of China. The commander of the Chinese Rocket Forces disappeared. A bunch of army, navy and air force top commanders also vanished in Nacht und Nebel. That happened a couple of months ago, but now they are all officially charged with corruption. Not just a bit of corruption. Corruption on a scale that baffles even Russians. China is very busy trying to become a superpower. They have the biggest army in the world, the biggest navy in the Pacific… but… it’s of little or no use. It is all falling apart.

Thailand

Before I continue, two related stories from Thailand. The new Srettha government was planning to allow Chinese police stations in tourist areas. Real People’s Police offices with semi-diplomatic status, where Thai officials would be welcome only on invitation. All to accommodate and support Chinese tourists, of course. What else?

A part of the soft power of China is tourism. Thailand relies heavily — as do many other nations in the region —on Chinese tourists. About one-third of all foreign tourists used to be Chinese. They vanished during and because of the Covid pandemic. Now the pandemic is over, Thailand wants them back. Apparently, at all costs.

That gave the Chinese government a nice opportunity. China is, as we all know, a communist dictatorship. Its citizens cannot freely travel, not in China itself (you need internal passports) and certainly not abroad. Percentage-wise, not that many Chinese can afford to travel abroad, but with +1 billion you have a lot of tourists who can. Most Chinese travel in groups. That’s a pretty common way to travel in Asia anyway, but in China there is another reason. A group is much easier to control than individual travelers. And China can control who gets this pot of gold. Provided they are nice to the Chinese government, that is. For example, micro states in the Pacific who acknowledge Taiwan suddenly didn’t get any tourists. Until they cut formal relations with Taiwan. Then, all of a sudden all ‘problems’ were solved and the flood of tourists came back.

People’s Police stations in Thailand

The Chinese government wanted real Chinese People’s Police stations in Thailand. Once that happened, all restrictions would be lifted. To manage Chinese tourists? Of course! What else? To control Thailand? The very idea! Thailand is an independent country, and proud about it. This created so much of a nationwide outcry that PM Srettha hastily withdrew those plans.

The Kra Canal

We’re not done yet, because China is big. They have more irons in the fire. The next one is ongoing, with a (small) possibility of succeeding. The Kra canal. You all know the most famous canals of the world, being the Panama and Suez canals. Another maritime choke point is the Strait of Malacca. At the moment maritime traffic is at a maximum. Large ships have to make reservations in order to cross it. For China it is of vital importance. All oil and most commerce to and from China has to pass the strait. It’s very easy to block by just about anyone. India, for example, is fortifying the Andaman Isles just to be able to do that. A canal through the narrow part of Thailand in the deep south might solve that problem for China, and give them another route. Which could just as easily be blocked, but now you have two passages to control.

That would be the Kra Canal. That’s a centuries-old dream of Thailand/Siam/Ayutthaya. They always wanted such a canal. However, it’s far more difficult to construct than the Panama canal, so nothing ever happened. Many projects were initiated, but no shovel ever hit the dirt. As long as I have been in Thailand (30 years!) rumors about reviving the Kra canal came and went.

This time the Chinese government is putting a lot of pressure on Thailand to construct one. Money is not an issue. Engineering can be done by the Chinese. We finance it too, on (for China) excellent conditions. Just allow us to build the damn thing!

I doubt very much whether it will ever happen. Singapore isn’t exactly thrilled to see half of their maritime trade sail away. A small state, to be sure, but with a lot of commercial power. America won’t be overjoyed either. Biden or Trump doesn’t matter. A Kra canal is not in the interests of America.

Another problem that will rear its ugly head: the revolting southern muslim provinces. They are located exactly on the other side of the proposed canal. The first problem will be unruly muslims milking the project for all they can. The second problem is that once the canal is there, independence is no longer a pipe dream. Rather something that almost certainly will happen when those provinces are separated by a huge canal from the mainland. A lot of water will flow through the Chao Phraya before it will happen. If at all.

Bring in the clowns!

Now back to the main story: the Chinese People’s Clown Circus, also known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It’s utterly corrupt — corruption is a Chinese invention — and extremely incompetent. It has never won a war. Nope, not even the communist revolution. Communist troops didn’t do anything at all during the war against the Japanese. They stood carefully aside, and let Chiang Kai-Shek’s army do the fighting. Only when Japan was defeated and the Chinese army exhausted did they come into action, and quickly took China. Later they tried to invade Vietnam, and got their teeth kicked out and butts kicked in. Left, right and center. A couple of years ago they started to participate in UN peacekeeping mission, where they performed as incompetent clowns. If unruly badly armed civilians can easily chase away Chinese peacekeepers in South Sudan, what about determined Taiwanese soldiers who have nothing to lose?

People don’t join the PLA out of patriotism, but for a career. If they can afford it, that is. You have to pay serious money to get in, no matter the rank. If you want to join as a private or noncom not that much, if you want to become officer expect your parents to cough up a tidy amount. It is an investment, mind you. You get in return a pretty good career with lots of opportunities. To enrich yourself and your family. Promotion is based on bribes. The higher you rise, the more is expected. In order to become ringmaster (general) in this circus, you have to have a couple of million dollars ready. And very good connections, but that is normal in any army. Another difference is veterans’ care. There isn’t any. Once you retire, you’re out. Anything you get is extra, but don’t expect anything. If the VA is bad in America, there isn’t anything at all worth the name in China. If you want to retire, you have to make certain you do that while you have a chance when serving. Veterans being fleeced is pretty much standard in China.

The commander of the Rockets Forces disappeared a couple of months ago because he went WAY to far. He had his missiles fueled with … dihydrogen monoxide! Sounds impressive, but we usually call it ‘water’. Corruption, by the way, works both ways. The chaps filling the nukes with water get a cut too. All the noncoms and officers involved. But the majority of the profit will be his, and his alone. Oopsie. You can’t launch a nuke fueled with water, right? Actually, that is a good thing. Because our intrepid commander got his cut of the concrete doors of the silos too. They can’t open. Imagine those rockets being properly fueled. A major catastrophe at hand! That’s how he was found out. Someone discovered a launch door didn’t open. An investigation was ordered and the cesspit opened. It appeared a couple of hundred silos don’t work. Think about it: more than 25% of China’s nuclear arsenal is officially kaput. Pretty embarrassing, what?

Dictators are never keen on bad news, especially if it makes them the laughingstock of the world. This is something that has the US military and the world falling over with laughter. Not just because it happened, but because of the ramifications. Xi wasn’t able to prevent the news from being published. If you have to publish this kind of news, what else is going on? The disappearance of the defense top layer (many generals, plus the minister himself) should clue you that a lot is going on there we don’t know about.

Which brings us to the elections in Taiwan. At the time of writing the elections are ongoing. I’ve written before that I don’t worry too much about a Chinese invasion. I still hold that position. With even more conviction: half of the Chinese army stuff simply doesn’t work. The PLA navy has more ships than the US in the Pacific, but numbers aren’t everything. One can have a million canoes but they won’t defeat a frigate. Let alone an aircraft carrier.

Talking about aircraft carriers. The Chinese have three right now. The first one they bought from Ukraine, and improved on it. The second one was their own design. The most recent one, just launched, has an electro-magnetic catapult system. You may have seen the vessel, with the catapults covered by large sheds. There is a very good reason for that. They don’t work. The admiral in charge of developing the catapults, and the one in charge of the entire project, have vanished. Another sign something went disastrously wrong for China.

Epilogue

Given the other massive problems China has, such as the declining birthrate, the debt crisis, failure of the belt and road initiative, very poor state of public utilities, sheer lack of management, post-Covid collapse of the economy and the utter incompetence of the armed forces, it seems likely that China cannot invade Taiwan. Seems, because it might very well be the only option left over for the CCP to remain in power. At this moment Xi Jinping has more power concentrated in himself than any other ruler in world history, including Mao Zedong. Governments like that very often resort to a foreign war to divert domestic attention. Hitler did that; Argentina did it; currently Venezuela is planning one.

The chances are not large, but they are there.

— H. Numan