The Iceman Cometh

The National Weather Service forecast for Saturday here at Schloss Bodissey includes a “winter weather advisory”: we are to expect “mixed precipitation”, with “snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one-tenth to two-tenths of an inch.”

Furthermore, “Precipitation is expected to begin as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain between 4 and 7 AM, then change to mostly freezing rain between 7 AM and 10 AM. Precipitation may mix with or change to rain by late afternoon, before ending during the early evening.”

It doesn’t sound serious enough to cause a power outage, but you never can tell. So if Saturday evening comes along and this is still the top post, and comments aren’t being approved, you’ll know why. Just assume that I am sitting here drinking wine (an Alvarez de Toledo Mencia, probably) by candlelight, keeping the temperature in the house above freezing by using the propane range in the kitchen…


Dymphna’s stove

Update 1:00pm EST: There was a little freezing rain, nothing significant, before I got up this morning. Since then it’s pretty much just been rain. It’s raining hard now, but not much ice on the trees. So it looks like the electricity may stay on, at least for the time being.

It’s the Religion, Stupid

Many thanks to Hellequin GB for translating this German-language post from Twitter:

Thought experiment shows: Climate narrative has long since become an ideology

Let’s assume for a moment that science finds out that temperatures on earth are falling, that CO2 is not the main driver of the climate, or that climate change has a positive impact on crop yields and prosperity will impact worldwide. In other words, the climate panic would be canceled for one of the reasons listed.

What would sound like good news would have massive consequences for the course chosen. The agreements between states to reduce emissions would be invalid, and the restructuring of industry and energy supply that has taken place so far would be meaningless in the new context. Capital flows amounting to thousands of billions of dollars would suddenly be called into question. Party programs would have to be rewritten.

In the thought experiment we can now test how realistic it is to assume that these new scientific findings would actually become widespread. Would the truth be stronger than all party-political, industrial and ideological interests? No, of course not. This assumption would be naïve. No one in power would simply agree to change the climate narrative and put their own interests aside. There is far too much at stake for that.

If this is not the case today, what year was the “point of no return”? When did the climate course become set in stone? The course was set at the latest with the Paris climate agreement in 2015. Presumably already with the establishment of the IPCC in 1988, which had the task of proving man-made climate change.

When viewed from a meta-level, the matter is clear: the climate narrative is an ideology. Science is no longer open-ended. Since probably 1988, at least since 2015. Everything else is wishful thinking. The harsh treatment of critics, the censorship we experience, the massive propaganda in the media underline this result of the thought experiment.

Afterword from the translator:

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The Light Has Come Into the World

Merry Christmas, everybody!

The weather at the moment doesn’t look anything like the photo at the top, which was taken here at Schloss Bodissey in February of 2006. It just seemed seasonally appropriate. Right now it’s actually quite mild, and semi-overcast. There’s been almost no snow so far this season.

The future Baron is here. We’ll be having a nice Christmas dinner in a little while, so posting will be light. I hope you all have a joyous Christmas.

Here We Go Again

If you live on the East Coast, you’ve probably heard about Tropical Storm Ophelia, which came up through the Carolinas and is now in the process of looping through Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The real action is pretty far away from Schloss Bodissey, but still, we’re getting a lot of rain, and some gusty winds, so anything is possible. If the lights go dark at Gates of Vienna tonight, that’s almost certainly the reason.

I went out late this afternoon and didn’t see any trees or big branches down, so I’m not really worried. On the other hand, the phone company’s antiquated equipment may decide that this is a good time to crap out. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Comms Failure

Long-time readers are aware of my persistent issues with phone and internet connectivity. The phone system out here in the Far Boondocks is roughly equivalent to two tin cans connected by a piece of string. It doesn’t take much stress on that string to zap my internet connection.

Last Friday, right after I finished moderating the comments that had come in overnight, my phone and Internet went out. Clear blue sky, no wind, beautiful day — and the phone went out, just like that.

I’ve learned from experience that when the phone goes out on a Friday, I can expect it to stay off all weekend. The phone company doesn’t send technicians out here to fix outages in their off hours. Repairs are scheduled for normal work hours, Monday through Friday. So if the phone goes out on Tuesday, it might be fixed on Wednesday, if I’m lucky. But if it goes out on Friday, I can forget about any repairs over the weekend.

As it happened, Saturday was the day of the memorial service for my very good friend who died last month (see “Thanatopsis”, August 6). The future Baron came down for the weekend so that he could attend it. Before he left yesterday, I had him come with me while I drove us to where there was a cell phone signal, about eight miles from here, and used his phone to call tech support in Bangladesh. After going through interminable touch-tone menus, and listening to horrible music while on hold, I finally got to talk to a personable young lady with a thick Bengali accent. She apologized profusely for the difficulties I was having, then made me listen to the horrible music for a while longer while she looked into the situation. When she returned, she told me that there was an outage in my area, and there was no estimated time for the repairs to be completed.

I knew ahead of time that she would say that, because that’s the way it always goes. But it’s important to go through the forms, just for propriety’s sake, and set up a trouble ticket.

I also knew that the phone would come back on today, because it always happens that way. The technician comes to work on Monday morning and looks at his trouble tickets while he drinks a cup of coffee. Then he gets in his panel truck and comes out here to Eerie Hollow to reconnect the string to the tin can.

It had been more than a month since the previous outage, which was a pretty long run. Let’s see how long it takes before the next one.

Generally speaking, if you see me disappear for a weekend without any advance warning, you can assume there’s been an outage like this one.

Weather Goes Boom!

Update: The storm seems to have passed through. It was loud, but not all that violent. There was no hail, at least not here at Schloss Bodissey.

Central Virginia is currently under a severe thunderstorm warning, and I can already hear the thunder and see the lightning. The storm is rapidly approaching, and we may be in for hail and high winds.

If Gates of Vienna stops being updated after this post, you’ll know why.

The Greening of the Planet

Back in 2010, during a trip to the Wretched Hive of Scum and Villainy — i.e. the Washington D.C. metropolitan area — I paid a visit to my old neighborhood in the town of Takoma Park, Maryland (not to be confused with an adjacent neighborhood of the same name just across the District line). I could remember the street grid well enough, and made my way to the apartment building I had lived in some thirty-five years previously, just to see what the place looked like. The area was recognizable enough — it was totally Hispanic by then, but it had been moving in that direction even when I lived there. Salvadoran restaurants. Mexican grocery stores. Cuban barber shops, where “razor cut” might have more than one meaning.

So the neighborhood was familiar, except for the growth of trees. What was it with the foliage hanging over every street, and dense greenery blocking the view around every corner? It’s not like it had been a newly-developed area when I lived there — it was an old established suburb by then, with forty- and fifty-year-old buildings and trees that had long since reached their maturity. So what was it with all that mass of greenery? It made navigation more confusing than it should have been.

It got me to thinking about the possibility that increased CO2 in the atmosphere had stimulated all that luxuriant new growth in the trees and shrubs of Takoma Park. The possibility made me look at the landscape in a different way in other places, including the remote countryside here in the boondocks of the Central Virginia Piedmont. Yes, it did seem like all the hedgerows and second-growth areas were choked with densely-packed shrubs and small trees. When I cast my mind back to the way things had looked in the same places thirty or forty years before, it seemed that the landscape back in those days had been more spare, more austere. The view was more wide open then driving along the back roads. But that was a very subjective observation, and could have been ascribed to the power of suggestion.

Or maybe not. Just a few years after my return to the barrios of Takoma Park, NASA published a report about the increase in green biomass across the globe between 1982 and 2015. Posted in 2016, it was entitled “CO2 is making Earth greener — for now”. The weaselly qualification “for now” had to be included to make sure the piece adhered to the Climate Crisis narrative. Sure, it’s nice that the Earth is experiencing more plant growth — but don’t get used to it! It won’t last, and before too long we will all fry, or drown, or freeze, or whatever the latest fashionable apocalyptic scenario is.

According to this report, my subjective impressions about the flora of the East Coast were based on very real changes:

A quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 25.

An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries led the effort, which involved using satellite data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer instruments to help determine the leaf area index, or amount of leaf cover, over the planet’s vegetated regions. The greening represents an increase in leaves on plants and trees equivalent in area to two times the continental United States.

Green leaves use energy from sunlight through photosynthesis to chemically combine carbon dioxide drawn in from the air with water and nutrients tapped from the ground to produce sugars, which are the main source of food, fiber and fuel for life on Earth. Studies have shown that increased concentrations of carbon dioxide increase photosynthesis, spurring plant growth.

While rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the air can be beneficial for plants, it is also the chief culprit of climate change. The gas, which traps heat in Earth’s atmosphere, has been increasing since the industrial age due to the burning of oil, gas, coal and wood for energy and is continuing to reach concentrations not seen in at least 500,000 years. The impacts of climate change include global warming, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and sea ice as well as more severe weather events.

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Lula: We Must Brainwash the Children About the Climate!

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known simply as “Lula”, is the president of Brazil. In the following video Mr. Lula answers softball media questions about the climate crisis and its effect on the Amazon basin. He places particular emphasis on the importance of indoctrinating schoolchildren with the urgency of the looming climate catastrophe.

Many thanks to José Atento for the translation, and to Vlad Tepes and RAIR Foundation for the subtitling:

Video transcript:

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Oak Leaves

I posted last week about a huge old oak tree in the back yard of Schloss Bodissey that fell down during a thunderstorm.

I found a guy who was willing to cut it up and haul it out of there. He wants the wood, so he’s doing it free of charge. He’s just leaving the small branches behind to be chipped up by the other tree man. Then a third guy will come in to grind up the stump.

After his first session, enough space had been cleared back there for me to be able to walk around the surviving oak tree and assess its condition from directly below. When the other tree fell, it broke several major branches off the surviving tree as it came down. They were all on the east side of the tree, which afterwards had almost no foliage left on that side. In the highest part of the tree, all the remaining branches were on the west side, overhanging the house. If that tree had fallen during a storm, it would almost certainly have at least clipped the corner of the Eyrie — which is where I’m sitting right now — as it fell.

There was no way to avoid it: the tree had to come down.

Early this morning the tree man took it down using his bucket truck. It was an impressive operation. I watched him up there in the bucket, lopping off pieces at the top of the tree and dropping them down into the yard where his assistant could pick them up and move them out of the way. Then he got to the upper section of the trunk, and cut it into short sections, dropping them right under the bucket, each landing with a deep WHUMP. Finally he tied a rope around the top of the remaining trunk and anchored it to the bucket truck. He did the standard two cuts at the base to get the tree to fall in the desired direction, and down it came. I was taking photos of the operation, and caught the split second just before the trunk hit the ground:

That was taken through the back door. The one below was taken about three seconds later, through the storm door:

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This is Getting Old

Yesterday afternoon my phone and internet went out for no discernible reason. There was no storm. No wind. No rain. They just went down, and stayed down for more than 24 hours. Voice is still out.

I’m getting really annoyed with the phone company. I’m keeping a record now of all the hours that the phone and/or internet go down in any given month. The log is in Excel, so I can easily calculate the percentage that they need to use to prorate my bill. Last month voice was out for more than 15% of the time. That’s unconscionable.

What this means for Gates of Vienna readers is that I can no longer reasonably predict when I’ll be offline. It used to be that an approaching thunderstorm or snowstorm might prompt me to warn everybody that I might soon disappear. But that’s no longer practical in a lot of cases — there’s just no way to tell.

From now on, if I stop posting and comments stop being moderated, just assume I’m at the mercy of the phone company, and that I’ll be back as soon as they deign to let me have a signal.

Great Was the Fall of It

From time to time I’ve posted photos of the two huge oaks in the back yard of Schloss Bodissey. The photo above shows the northernmost of them. It was taken almost twenty years ago, in October of 2003, when the last rays of sunset were touching the top of the tree.

Below is the same tree early this morning:

It was difficult to get a view of the full length of the fallen oak. I had to set up a stepladder in the midst of the dogwood tree’s foliage to take the shot.

Here’s a view from ground level:

And from a window up here in the Eyrie:

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Sturm und Drang

Here at Schloss Bodissey the sky is very dark and thunder is rumbling…

The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for this area:

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. For your safety, move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away from windows.

If this post is still on top late this evening, or tomorrow, you’ll know why. Given the combination of the phone company and the electric company, some sort of outage is to be expected.

The Defender of Europe

I woke up this morning and learned that an attempted coup was underway against Vladimir Putin, staged by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group. Since I have no expertise whatsoever on internal Russian politics, I won’t be commenting on the situation myself (Putin’s speech is here).

I don’t generally post photos of myself, but I’ll make an exception in this case, due to the t-shirt I was wearing at the beach the day before yesterday:

The rain finally quit for a while, and the sun came out (sort of), enough for me to go down and put my feet into the surf.

That’s Matteo Salvini on my shirt, which was marketed back when he was Interior Minister, before he was betrayed by Giuseppe Conte and the 5-Star Movement. Dymphna gave me the shirt for Christmas in 2018 (her last Christmas). It’s the first time I’ve worn it to the beach. Actually, it’s the first time I’ve been to the beach in seventeen years. It was good to feel the sand between my toes.

I doubt that one American in 10,000 would recognize the image of Matteo Salvini. When someone asks who that is on my shirt, and I tell them, they’ve never even heard of him. So I launch into an explanation, but by the time I get to phrases such as “interior minister” and “coalition government” and “closed the ports to migrant-rescue vessels”, their eyes glaze over and I can tell they are only pretending to pay attention, just to be polite.

Mine is a specialized line of work.

Cranking up the Runabout

I’ll be leaving shortly on a little road trip, and will be away for a couple of days.

This is a “planned outage”, not like what happened last weekend, when the stinkin’ phone company forced me to endure three days of idleness.

Mind you, I plan to be fairly idle during my time away, but it’s a planned, structured idleness. Relaxing for a little while, away from all the horror in the news. The weather looks like it’s going to be pretty crappy, but I plan to have a good time anyway.

There will be no news feed until after I get back.

Wish me happy motoring!