Analysis of the 2020 Presidential Race

Reader From Chicago is a long-time tipster and commenter here at Gates of Vienna. His analysis below looks ahead to next year’s presidential election, the primary season of which is already well underway, at least on the Democrat side.

Analysis of the 2020 Presidential Race

by Reader From Chicago

A U.S. presidential election is scheduled for 2020. The purpose of this essay is to determine in an analytical way who is likely to win.

I first came across the historian Allan Lichtman’s model for predicting the winner of the US Presidential election during the 2016 Presidential campaign. Allan Lichtman presented his model in books such as The Keys To The White House. He went on record predicting a Trump victory a few weeks before the 2016 election. I found that prediction interesting, for it went against polling and conventional wisdom that indicated Hillary Clinton would win.

Allan Lichtman has called every presidential race since 1984. For nine elections, he was correct all nine times. The way I see it: a person who only made one or two correct predictions might be lucky. Nine correct predictions in a row is like a fair coin landing heads on 9 flips in a row, the odds of which is 1 in 512.

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” looks at thirteen criteria, and if the incumbent party candidate fails at least six of them, the incumbent candidate loses.

Two of the criteria I think are too subjective. Also, it cannot be determined at this time whether some criteria have been fulfilled or not. We should get definite answers a few weeks before the election. However, it may be interesting to see where we stand.

1.   After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. The Republicans lost seats — and lost majority status — in the US House. Verdict: a strike against the incumbent.
2.   There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. At the present time, there is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Someone like Jeff Flake might run, but it would be a flaky campaign. Verdict: Undetermined, but criterion likely will be fulfilled.
3.   The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Verdict: Criterion fulfilled.
4.   There is no significant third party or independent campaign. At the present time, I see no significant third party or independent campaign, but that might change. Verdict: Undetermined, but criterion likely will be fulfilled.
5.   The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. In financial news, it has been reported that the yield curve has inverted. A yield curve is a curve showing several yields or interest rates across different contract lengths (2 month, 2 year, 20 year, etc. …) for a similar debt contract. An inverted yield curve occurs when long-term yields fall below short-term yields. An inverted yield curve has been taken as an indicator that a recession will arrive. An inverted yield curve has occurred before recessions. However, it has been pointed out that there have been “false positives”. Verdict: Undetermined, but criterion likely will be fulfilled.
 

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