As expected, there is massive struggle underway in The Netherlands to prevent Geert Wilders from forming a government. Our Dutch correspondent H. Numan has the report.

Dilan Yeşilgöz, the leader of the conservative party VVD, offering her warmest felicitations to congratulate Geert Wilders on his victory

Meanwhile, in The Netherlands

by H. Numan

We’re struggling as usual forming a coalition. Especially as nobody wants to be partner with the PVV party. By ‘nobody’ I mean the established parties that matter. In Dutch we call them ‘regenten‘ (regents); you would call them elites. They’re not just the political parties, but anyone important. The media are firmly against the PVV party. So are higher ranking civil servants, the courts, the press, many businesses — just about anyone of importance. There are, of course, parties that do want to work with the PVV, but they are all small fry. Not enough to form a coalition.

In America you have at least some mainstream media that are conservative. In The Netherlands that’s different. We don’t have any. None whatsoever. Take newspapers, for example. Nearly all Dutch newspapers are now owned by a single wealthy Belgian family or a Belgian company: the van Thillo family and Mediahuis. Together they own more than 90% of all Dutch newspapers. And they are very progressive. Salon socialists, of course. Socialism is, after all, a plaything for the discontented rich.

The NRC-Handelsblad fired the first broadside on the PVV after the elections. They published an article about Gom van Strien, a PVV senator appointed by Geert Wilders as scout. Don’t worry about the man; I never heard of him either. They published that he is currently being prosecuted for fraud. (The original article is behind a paywall.) The man had to resign on Monday. The idea behind it is pretty obvious: we’re going to make it impossible for Wilders to even try to negotiate. Let alone form a coalition.

However, it completely backfired. Geert Wilders struck back. It’s not the first time they’ve tried to block him. He asked Labor/GL politician Ronald Plasterk to scout for him, flabbergasting just about anyone. Who is Plasterk? One of the very few Labor politicians I find acceptable. He was a scientist, a real one, in molecular biology. He changed to politics, and became the (Labor) education and science minister in 2007. He left politics after his tenure, and currently is a professor at the University of Amsterdam. He is quite popular, left and right. That’s unique, and shows his capabilities. Even I find very little wrong with him! What’s even more striking is that he is a columnist for the (somewhat conservative) Telegraaf newspaper, and a popular one at that.

That’s striking back with a vengeance. Wilders didn’t know about the legal proceedings against van Strien. He was unpleasantly surprised to read it in the papers. Mr. van Strien never said anything about it when he accepted the job. What happens with the man is irrelevant for us. Maybe he’s innocent, maybe he’s not. I don’t know. I have yet to meet an honest politician, so I do have my doubts. Maybe he’ll keep his PVV job, probably not. I find it very questionable not to mention you’re currently involved in a trial. However, that is for Wilders to decide. Not me.

Wilders’ counterstroke is masterful. It completely stunned the establishment. By asking a popular (ex) Labor politician they stand, for the moment, powerless. They can’t embarrass Plasterk, as he is one of them. Nor can they prosecute him, as there is nothing to prosecute. He’s clean as a whistle. Even better: he is capable, no-nonsense and knows how to handle people. It’s possible, even likely, he’ll get the job done in a couple of days. Now the ball is back in the elites’ court again. They have to find something else. Don’t worry: they will.

By asking Plasterk, Wilders scored twice. First of all everybody chuckles at the embarrassed reactions of the Left, manifested as stunned silence. More important, it’ll force them to show their cards.

Of course the VVD and NSC can’t openly admit they prefer a super-left cabinet. That would be the end of both parties, especially the VVD. I told you before there is a huge difference between what the people and the elites want. That includes party members and lower-level parliamentarians as well. VVD party members are mostly conservative. However, VVD party elites are woke as hell.

A shining example is the current leader, Mrs. Dilan Yesilgöz. She didn’t became VVD leader because of her outstanding capabilities, far from it. She had the most woke pity points, that’s how it works nowadays. Dilan is a Kurdish refugee. Add at least five points for that. She is muslim. That’s another two points. She doesn’t practice the religion and pretends being non-religious, worth two points at least. She holds two nationalities, good for another point. And she is a woman, giving her another set of points. Of course there are plenty of capable Dutch conservative politicians in that party. But they don’t matter, for they don’t have pity points.

Here you see how big the division between the elites and their own party members is, including serving politicians. The elites would rather face oblivion than compromise. The idea was to chant the usual go-tough-on-crime/immigration. Once reinstated in office, party as usual. Import as many migrants as possible, don’t do anything about crime, and cash in. Only it doesn’t work anymore. The chant lost its charm. Wilders, rightly, said: we’re too big to ignore now. Every party going woke is going broke. Not only in The Netherlands, but everywhere.

My expectation is that Mrs. Dilan will have to resign. She didn’t win the elections; she lost massively. Losing a third of your seats is nothing to be proud of. If the VVD wants to survive, they have to change course now. If they don’t — and I think they won’t — they’ll follow the other big parties who went woke and are now small fry. If the VVD does change course, it can’t do that with Mrs. Dilan at the helm. In politics anything is possible, but this is asking too much. Likely the other VVD politicians will ‘encourage’ her to resign and follow Mark Rutte. It’s either that or get out of politics for the other politicians. I expect a kind of quiet revolt inside the party to get rid of her.

Next is that enfant terrible Pieter Omtzigt. He stepped out of his party (Christian Democrats) to build an identical copy of it, only with him at the helm. He kept the PVV boycott, which is now biting him in the buns. Does he want to continue that boycott? That would alienate his voters and most of his cadre. It’s even worse for them. Most of his cadre came from his old party. If they continue the boycott they have nowhere to go. He will be getting ‘suggestions’ from them to be cooperative, or else. Both parties face the same problem. Either they eat a hefty slice of humble pie or they disappear.

There are only two possible combinations for a cabinet: somewhat conservative and ultra-left. Nothing else will work. Of course Geert Wilders has to tune down his program. That’s completely normal and expected in a coalition government. The big question is: by how much? His possible coalition partners want him to give up just about everything. Maybe they’ll allow Black Pete for another year or so, but no more. In everything that really matters, such as immigration, law and order, housing, and the environment, he has to follow their lead. That’s not going to happen.

Their problem is how to block a PVV cabinet, without getting the blame for it. First shot in the war was to tar the scout as a criminal. Wilders’ return fire is to appoint a scout they can’t refuse. What happens next, nobody knows.

Assume they succeed, and manage to create a super left-wing cabinet. What will happen? It’ll be the end of the VVD party, there and then. A coalition with Labor was about as left as VVD voters wanted to go and can go without losing credibility. A coalition with the communist party is completely out of the question. It will create a split in the party immediately. The same for NSC. Their electorate didn’t vote for a communist cabinet. They want a decent and conservative cabinet. Continuing the boycott means the VVD, NSC and Omtzigt will last until the end of that ultra-cabinet, then disappear.

Wilders said it: they are now too big too ignore. The left had decades to built a new society and blew it.

— H. Numan

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