Our Dutch correspondent H. Numan sends this report on yesterday’s stunning general election in The Netherlands.

Landslide victory for the PVV!

by H. Numan

Yesterday we had elections in The Netherlands. The results are mind-boggling. Stunning, completely unexpected. Possibly even revolutionary! Though the most difficult part of the elections will be forming a coalition government. While the establishment has lost the battle, they may almost certainly win the war. Let’s have a look at the elections first.

The PVV won by a landslide. I never expected they would win this big: out of a total of 150, no fewer than 36 seats! The PVV gained a stunning 19 seats. That means they more than doubled, coming from 18 seats. They are, by far, the biggest party now. That doesn’t make Wilders PM automatically. He’ll have to negotiate a coalition. That means other parties must be willing to govern with him. And that can be very difficult, if not outright impossible.

The runner-up is the combination Labor/Communists, PvdA/GL. They won 25 seats, coming from 17 seats. The VVD (they pretend to be our Conservative party) lost a lot; they now hold 24 seats, losing 10 seats. I expected them to lose. In Dutch politics, the party that breaks the coalition pays for it. That’s what the VVD did, dropping from 34 seats to now 24 seats. Pretty big, and something I expected.

Another confirmed loser was D66; they are upper middle-class yuppies who pretend not to be communists. They dropped from 24 seats to 10, losing 14 seats. Given their being the party of utter wokeness, this was fairly certain, too. D66 is a rollercoaster party. One election they are on top; the next one they fall down.

Pieter Omtzigt did well, but not as well as expected. His NSC (New Social Contract, check the link where he found that name) scored only 20 seats. With good reasons: Omtzigt didn’t want to become Prime Minister, he said that during the entire campaign. He never presented a candidate, keeping it a secret. Only at the very last minute did he change his mind to become PM after all. The voters didn’t like that. Another problem for Omtzigt is that he didn’t have a clear program. By being vague you don’t alienate voters; that much is true. But you won’t gain many, either.

The Christian Democrats lost impressively, as everybody expected. Dropping from 15 seats to… five. Before the elections I joked that the only major feat of their new leader, Henri Bontenbal, would be announcing his resignation. Not a joke: he’ll be doing that sometime in the coming days or next week. One cannot lose two-thirds of his seats and remain party leader.

The Farmers Party (BBB) did pretty badly. In percentages their win was huge: no less than 500%. But they only had one seat. Now they have five. They polled about 13 seats, but ran on a one-issue program, focused on farmer problems. Everything else was secondary at best. Yes, most people sympathize with our farmers. Only The Netherlands is not a rural country. Even if all farmers voted for BBB it wouldn’t win them much more. Being vague and disinterested in what city folks want cost them everything.

The two other conservative parties JA21 and FvD were trashed. I expected that. FvD lost four seats, keeping four, and JA21 kept one of their two stolen seats. JA21 is a split-off from FvD. Two splitters Joost Eerdmans and Annabel Nanninga moved out of FvD in 2021, hence the name. Nanninga has some credibility (other than her impressive waistline); Eerdmans is an ambitious politician who jumps from party to party. Wherever he thinks his chances are best. You don’t want that character standing behind you. Neither did the electorate.

FvD is led by Thierry Baudet. He recently made headlines and lost everything by bluntly stating in front of cameras that he didn’t believe in moon landings and doubted 9/11. I’m surprised he was able to keep four seats. A statement like that should give him a straitjacket right away.

The remainder, all small fry, lost or remained the same. But they don’t amount to much, so it doesn’t matter.

What’s next?

In The Netherlands we don’t have a winner-take-all system. We have a representative democracy. Meaning that all parties get seats in relation to their electoral results. If your party scores 10% of the vote, you’ll get 10 seats. Even though Geert Wilders won by a landslide, it’s by no means certain he’ll become prime minister or even part of a cabinet.

Just look at the recent Thai elections. Move Forward won a landslide victory but are still in the opposition, and the leader resigned. He tried his best; twice he presented his plans to parliament. The house accepted his proposals, but the military senators said no. The runner-up was next. They quickly struck a deal with the military and within three days the Srettha cabinet was formed.

Fortunately, things aren’t as grim here. It’ll be difficult to form a coalition, yes. All depends on that Mr. Pieter Omtzigt. If he sticks to the boycott of the PVV, as he said during the campaign, no PM Geert Wilders. However, it isn’t that rosy for a left-wing coalition, either. There is a marginal majority for that, but with four parties. If Omtzigt goes that way, he would lose all credibility. From very popular he would become the most hated politician overnight. The biggest problem here is that he is autistic enough to do that. His policy, within the CDA and later as an independent is: whatever I want, I do. Damn the torpedoes!

There are, based on the results, two workable coalitions possible:

• ‘Right’ wing: PVV — VVD — NSC = 80 seats
• Left wing: GL/PvdA — VVD — NSC — D66 = 79 seats

Not really a right-wing cabinet, because VVD and NSC are anything but conservative. Just a small step in the right direction. Just before the elections the leader of the VVD tried to slam the door shut for a PVV — VVD coalition. Not that it matters, after her stunning loss she has only one job left: gracefully retire from politics.

All other possible combinations are not realistic. As you can see, it all depends not on Wilders but on Omtzigt. Even if he is autistic enough (and he is!!) to block a conservative cabinet, it’ll be the end of him and the VVD as well. There is a big split between party members and party elite in the VVD, but this is something they won’t get away with. If the VVD opts for a left wing cabinet, it’ll break the party.

We’re not there yet, but this is the first bit of good news in a long time. Yes, the elites are not pleased. Even if they try to sabotage Wilders inside the cabinet, that won’t play out well. Fortunately, most Wilders-haters are about to resign, except for Omtzigt. But he stands alone in his hatred. His electorate does not support him there, neither do NSC politicians. Wilders-haters within the VVD will have to resign as well. That includes their dual-passport-holding muslim leader Mrs. Dylan Yeşilgöz. She doesn’t want to work with the PVV to begin with, and the VVD is due for an internal cleanup as it is. They became a left-leaning if not outright left-wing party, much to the dislike of the voters.

In short, a landslide change in Dutch politics. Foreign newspapers say that the Dutch Trump has won the elections. He’ll be stuck with two very unwilling coalition partners who will do anything to restrain him. They will have to work with him because if they don’t, it’ll end their careers.

— H. Numan

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