As expected, the formation of a new government in the Netherlands after last November’s elections has been a tortuous process, and is still ongoing. Our Dutch correspondent H. Numan sends this report.

Big problem in Holland

by H. Numan

Folks, an update about the Dutch elections. We’re now in the formation phase, and it doesn’t look good. Remember what I told you about the election results? The PVV is the clear winner. They rank even better today in the polls. However, polls are not elections. The elections results are pretty clear: we can have a progressive ultra-left or a somewhat conservative cabinet. The people really want that somewhat conservative cabinet. The elites want the other one. And they’re doing everything possible to make that happen.

Before the elections the VVD changed position and, for the moment, broke the boycott against the PVV. They were now open for a VVD-PVV coalition. In that order. The VVD in the lead, with the PVV hopefully far behind. As far as possible. However, when the polls indicated the PVV was going to win they took that back. No more VVD-PVV for them, the exact opposite of what their voters want.

The NSC party was never in favor of a PVV coalition. Pieter Omtzigt is hugely popular, but he never even suggested a possible PVV coalition. Omtzigt stepped out of the CDA party, and within that party he headed the left wing. The group that does not, repeat: not, want a PVV coalition. When he left he took most left wingers with him. They still don’t want that, but the voters do.

Both the VVD and NSC faced a big problem. They do not want a coalition with Wilders. But stating that openly would end both parties. The usual way around it is to negotiate ad infinitum until Wilders makes a mistake. Then shed crocodile tears over how hard they tried to work with that loose cannon but in vain. After that come up with an ultra-left-wing coalition within days.

That is happening right now. Last week the VVD senators announced they are going to vote for the spreidingswet, or Distribution Act. This law will give the government almost unlimited powers to seize private properties and force cities to accept any number of refugees forced upon them by the government. Yes, if this law passes, it will be possible to evacuate anyone from their private homes without any compensation whatsoever.

If you see this as a modern version of Hitler’s Enabling Act, you’re spot on. That is exactly what it is. The problem, as with Hitler, is how to prevent it. Actually, we can’t. This is legislation prepared under the Rutte administration, and cunningly pushed through after Rutte’s demise. Just like the Enabling Act, only they don’t have to burn the Binnenhof (our Reichstag) for it. And so far without violence. No big burly VVD brown shirts, but I do think VVD pants are getting brown right now.

Given popular opinion, and to save the last bit of credibility the VVD has left, their parliamentary faction voted against it. The law is now on the way to the Senate. Our beloved Kurdish refugee cum wannabe prime minister Dylan Yesilgöz advised VVD senators to follow their lead and vote against it. The senators, in their infinite wisdom, decided to give her the finger. They are going to vote in favor.

The people are not really outraged. Something like this was more or less expected. The credibility of VVD politicians was rated lower than used car salesmen; now they match that of pedophiles. The VVD plays the usual damage control game: they let old retired VVD prominents speak out against their own senators. Observe no currently serving VVD politicians do that. Only politically retired prominents. Why? Because they are perceived to be more conservative, and are taken more seriously by the electorate. Until now. Those retired politicians are, well, retired. They hold no actual position in the party. Hence, no threat.

Wilders did win the elections, but the PVV does not have a majority in the Senate. It is very difficult for them to counter or block that law. Especially because ALL of their proposed coalition partners are either in favor (VVD, BBB) or not present in the Senate (NSC). This incident did not happen by accident. I am certain of it, though it looks somewhat innocent. It is supposed to look that way. It does happen, fairly often, a senatorial faction does not follow parliament. But never in sensitive and important matters like this.

I have a feeling this is exactly the obstacle what our Turkish Delight wants, not from a position of strength but playing on her own weakness. Set your partner up for a demand he simply cannot accept, and demand more. If he fails, a divorce. If he refuses to give in, pour out a flood of tears and say you didn’t mean it that way and that you’ll do anything he wants. Until next time. Ask any married man.

As you can understand, this is a major obstacle. It’s next to impossible for Wilders to continue negotiating without losing his credibility. He lost a lot of that already by giving in on important issues. On the other hand, the alternative is an ultra-left cabinet that no longer cares what voters want. Democracy is no longer necessary. Even if they have to govern as a minority cabinet, they will do just that. With support of the other progressive parties, the opposition of Wilders and the small fry parties cannot outmatch him — forever.

Remember, the majority of the common voters want a conservative cabinet. Just about everybody that matters does not. The courts hate Wilders. The media hate Wilders. Big employers aren’t supporting him. The entire civil service absolutely hates Wilders. The educational system probably even more, if that is possible.

Wilders is faced with a difficult choice: he can call it a day and let the progressives fight it out. Or he can swallow his pride and continue. I think he will opt for the latter: swallow it and continue. Because the alternative is far worse. He knows very well that his ‘partners’ are all carrying knives to stab in his back. They are not merely willing to join a progressive coalition, they are actually eager and working towards it. He needs them, they don’t even want him. Circumstances dictate otherwise.

However… those same circumstances that force our unwilling parties to join a coalition they resent give Wilders other options that they will have to accept. The credibility of their parties is simply no longer there. The VVD is currently reviled by what used to be their core voters. In a new election they wouldn’t be slashed. They would no longer be of any importance at all. The same, to a lesser extend, goes for Omtzigt. He’s no longer a rising star. He has to take a position, whether he likes it or not. Sitting on the fence is costing him precious voters already.

Wilders is a very clever and capable politician. He knows his opponents intimately. They are trying to force him to break off negotiations. So what if he doesn’t? They will try to put him into a contractual straitjacket. That won’t work, because they simply can’t dictate how he will work on everything in the future without giving away their real intentions. Sure, the big items will all be there. No Nexit, no limitations on nationality, nothing done that antagonizes some minorities, especially the one with a phobia for alcohol and pork and a heck of a lot more.

What they can’t do is prevent Wilders from applying the laws we have to the maximum. He can agree to put the plans for Nexit on hold, but that won’t stop him from resurrecting strict border controls. He can agree not to antagonize anyone. Just instruct the ministry of education to strictly apply the law on schools. Strongly under-performing schools have to be closed. Regardless of fetish. Bad schools favoring fish on Fridays as much as schools favoring prayer on Fridays. They can forbid him to restructure the public broadcasting system, even though it is badly needed. But they can’t forbid him to stop allocating money and resources to that outdated system. And so on.

Wilders also has a knack for finding out-of-the-box solutions that turn his opponents upside down. Besides, even if this Dispersion Law passes, he doesn’t have to act on it. He didn’t want that law; his opponents did. As PM he can simply ignore that law, and later on revoke it.

His secret weapon? If you don’t like it, you can always resign. Don’t worry about a next cabinet. I won’t be needing your support by then anyways. Don’t slam the door on the way out, please.

To finish, most cabinet members of the previous cabinet, including Mark Rutte himself, are jumping ship like crazy. They are all fleeing the country in search of nice comfy jobs. Mark hopes to become the next NATO chairman. His biggest supporter for that claim is Vladimir Zel… Nope. Not that Vlad. Vladimir Putin, of course!

Sigrid Al-Qaq just got a nice comfy job in Gaza. Hope she stays there forever.

— H. Numan

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