Despite his resounding victory at the polls, I have always assumed Geert Wilders would never be able to form a cabinet — the Dutch oligarchs simply would not allow it. And indeed, according to our Dutch correspondent H. Numan, that seems to be the case.
No cabinet Wilders
by H. Numan
Gentle men and women, I’ve got bad news. Very bad indeed: a cabinet Wilders wont’ be coming. The elites will not allow it. They want to go for the other option: a conservative-communist cabinet. They aren’t negotiating to form a coalition, far from it. They’re negotiating in bad faith, trying to blame Wilders for their own mistakes. I have lived almost exactly 30 years in Thailand. In that time I witnessed many coups, coup attempts, coup attempts through the courts and failed coup attempts. My coup senses are tingling right now. I may be off, but I’m really worried I’m right.
The Dutch elections resulted in two viable cabinet options:
- A center-right cabinet with PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB. That cabinet would have 88 seats. BBB has only 7, but would be invited to counter a VVD-NSC majority.
- An ultra left-wing cabinet with PvdGL (Labor/Communists), NSC, VVD, D66. That cabinet would have 78 seats, 2 more seats than the bare minimum.
Other combinations are not possible. In both cases VVD and NSC have to decide which way they want to go. They only want to join a conservative coalition if forced to at gunpoint, otherwise they would much rather commit suicide by joining an ultra-progressive coalition.
It will take a long time before negotiations are finalized. Maybe even a full year. Forming a coalition is always difficult, mainly because politicians are extremely sensitive. In theory we could have a cabinet next week. PVV is a split-off from the VVD. They don’t differ that much on most topics. NSC is a rebranding of the CDA, and they don’t differ that much from the PVV either. It isn’t the policies that differ, but the people.
Before the elections Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) kept to the PVV boycott, despite a lot of opposition from his electorate. They are staunch conservatives, and definitely prefer a PVV cabinet. However, Omtzigt does not. The people he surrounds himself with who follow the leader are left-wing (ex) CDA politicians who also don’t want anything to do with the PVV. What the voters think is rather irrelevant to Omtzigt and his clique. He does exactly what he wants and nobody can convince him otherwise.
That’s why he was ostracized out of the CDA. It’s extremely difficult to work with someone who is borderline autistic. In case he doesn’t get his way, he’ll have or pretend to have a nervous breakdown. He has done it before, and will do it again. Imagine an unruly child throwing a temper tantrum to get what it wants. That’s Pieter Omtzigt.
Apart from that, his ideas are completely impossible to begin with. ‘We have to restructure our civil service’ sounds great, until you actually have to do it. Another one of his brain farts is a constitutional court. We don’t have one in The Netherlands. He wants to check all laws (especially those made by Wilders) in court. Hello? Anybody home? It’s a well known fact our courts are staffed by predominantly D66 judges, who hate Wilders so much they are even risking mistrials for it. Even, in the unlikely case he does gets his way, it will be years in the future. Kind of silly to say that Wilders has to follow the law to the letter, whereas his legal ideas don’t even exist.
There is even more. I told you a couple of years ago about a memo leaked by accident by the scouts of the previous cabinet. It showed ‘Omtzigt alternative position’ clearly to journalists who eagerly picked it up. Now of all people, the very same Omtzigt walks around with a memo ostentatiously showing ‘no PVV-NSC-BBB cabinet’. That’s very sick humor to me. Feeling mortally insulted when it happens to you, but a funny joke if you can repeat it on someone else.
The other person — yes, it’s personal — who hates Wilders is Dilan Yeşilgöz, the Dutch/Turkish/Kurdish leader of the VVD. During the elections she pretended a cabinet with the PVV was a possibility for her. However, the day before the election, she backpedaled on that. She doubted a cabinet with the PVV was possible. After the election she went even further. She doesn’t want to be part of the coalition because that would prevent her from being able to kill the coalition!
Both Omtzigt and Dilan are looking for excuses why they shouldn’t join that coalition. They both know very well that the electoral results and popular opinion are firmly against them. In the first poll after the elections this has been confirmed: PVV polls 5 more at 42 seats; VVD lost another 8 seats, keeping 16. NSC also lost, but only one seat. The Labor/Communist combo lost 3 seats in the poll. The voters clearly do not want to continue the progressive line.
However, that is not what is going to happen. We don’t go vote until we got the desired outcome. This is what you have; deal with it. I’ve told you many times before: we have one poll that really matters. Its name is ‘national election’. Not the first time the elites have ignored electoral results. Remember the referendums? The government rejected them all. Even out of hand.
What strikes me as very odd is that nobody seems to notice the impossibility of what Dilan and Pieter are blabbering about. Omtzigt tries to score on legalities. ‘What Wilders wants is legally impossible. You can’t ban a religion.’ He’s partly right. We can’t ban a religion. Nor does Wilders want that. What we can do is make that religion follow our laws. If an imam calls for beheading of infidels, that is clearly against our laws and he should be prosecuted. Likewise, if members of that religion break the law ‘on religious grounds’ they should be prosecuted as well. Nothing wrong with that. Muslim schools score consistently far below the legal minimum. Close them. There is no reason not to but fear. Omtzigt knows that, Dilan knows that and so do the elites. The society they destroyed can be resurrected. Follow the law. Apply the law. Use common sense.
Also, being extremely generous at the expense of others is not going to fly. “We have to open our hearts and houses for people less fortunate than us.” Sounds great, but pay for your misplaced generosity yourself. I don’t see why we should accommodate known illegal migrants better than our own citizens. Supposing we were to house refugees in old-age retirement homes and pensioners in prisons; both would get the treatment they deserve! The situation is that bad.
So far Dilan’s words ‘I want to be able to get the cabinet to resign’ are not — yet — taken at face value. That has nothing to do with negotiating. That is acting in bad faith. Of course she can withdraw VVD support any moment she wants. Wilder is not taking her prisoner nor writing the coalition agreement in blood.
Both are waiting for Wilders to make a mistake, to justify their opposition. Even Labor/Communist Frans Timmermans doesn’t want new elections. He fears the electorate will take revenge by voting even more strongly for Wilders! What kind of mistake is irrelevant. As long as he makes one, they will blow it out of proportion to justify their behavior.
It will be the end for both VVD and NSC, but not yet. When the VVD formed a coalition with Labor in the past, that was difficult. Most members (not voters) vehemently objected. This goes much, much further, and will definitely split the party. But Dilan seems to be willing to accept that. Omtzigt is not a person who is open to different opinions to begin with. He already stepped out of one party; why not do it again? Internally, they simply keep a tight ship. ‘You can vote against us, but only once.’ That’ll keep most parliamentarians on board. For the moment. And that is all they need.
What’s going to happen?
It will probably take a very long time to conclude negotiations. The current non-active government Rutte is perfectly happy not actively governing. They gained lots of experience with that during the Covid pandemic. They will negotiate and negotiate until they find some kind of fault with Wilders. Once that happens, the very next week an ultra left-wing cabinet will appear.
Nobody can do anything about it. We can vote, but we can’t form a government. That’s the job of the parties. We don’t (really) vote for persons, but for parties. Yes, all candidates are on the ballot. It does happen that a few get elected based on preferential votes. But in general, the #1 gets the most votes. Usually almost all. Our ballots are really huge, about the size of a newspaper folded open. All candidates are listed, often more than a hundred. In reality it could be a postcard, with the names of the parties on it.
Why are my coup senses tingling?
Technically speaking, there is no coup. It’s completely legal. But it’s borderline. It most certainly is completely opposite to what the electorate voted for. Parties don’t have to follow results. In the past, the Labor party scored massively in 1971, almost as much as the PVV did this time. They overplayed their position by demanding too much. A coalition was formed without the Labor party. That was not a coup. The people voted for a more progressive government, and got a somewhat less progressive government. In this case it’s diametrically opposite to what was voted for. That makes it a coup in disguise.
That government will rule for as long as it lasts. The elites expect it’ll be business as usual. People forget. People will resign themselves to the inevitable. Only this time it’s different. Not because people won’t forget or simply accept the inevitable, but because they have no choice.
Our elites know that, too, but Covid showed them they can deal with it.
— H. Numan
Key to Dutch parties:
| FvD | Forum for Democracy | |
| Forum voor Democratie | ||
| Conservative, populist, Euroskeptic |
||
| VVD | People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy | |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | ||
| Center-right |
||
| PvdA | Labour Party | |
| Partij van de Arbeid | ||
| Social democrats |
||
| PVV | Party for Freedom | |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | ||
| Classical liberal, Islam-critical |
||
| BBB | Farmer-Citizen Movement | |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | ||
| Agrarian populists |
||
| SP | Socialist Party | |
| Socialistische Partij | ||
| Left-wing populists, former Maoists, to the left of communists |
||
| CDA | Christian Democratic Appeal | |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | ||
| Christian democrats, center-right |
||
| D66 | Democrats 66 | |
| Politieke Partij Democraten 66 | ||
| Centrist social liberals |
||
| CU | ChristianUnion | |
| ChristenUnie | ||
| Christian Democrats, left-wing, only “conservative” in being ostensibly religious |
||
| GL | GreenLeft | |
| GroenLinks | ||
| Environmentalism plus hard left |
||
| SGP | Reformed Political Party | |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | ||
| Christian right, advocates a Christian theocracy |
||
| PvdD | Party for Animals | |
| Partij voor de Dieren | ||
| Animal rights |
||
| Denk | Denk | |
| Denk | ||
| Turkish |
||
| 50+ | 50PLUS | |
| 50PLUS | ||
| Pensioners’ party |
||
| VNL | VoorNederland | |
| For The Netherlands | ||
| Classical liberal party |
||
| PPNL | Pirate Party of the Netherlands | |
| Piratenpartij Nederland | ||
| Anti-copyright, transparent governance |
||
| JA21 | Right Answer 21 | |
| Juiste Antwoord 21 | ||
| Right-of-center |
Numan, Wilders is an experienced and savvy politician. Seems to me that he would be able to be one step ahead of them, since he knows the game, intimately. If you were to guess at his moves, the kind of moves that might outwit all those that have stymied him all these years… what would you say those moves would be?
How naive are those who believe that in a “normal democratic country” the “people” can change the course of the nation by voting for “good guys” and thus defeating the “baddies”.
Well, the latest Dutch election shows that this is a pure illusion or should we say “delusion”?
Not being Dutch, I do not dare to judge whether Mr Wilders is a “good guy” or a “baddy”, but the Dutch people has really shown that it wants him in power. That was the – unambiguously demonstrated – “will of the people”. The people who, in spite of all the heavy brainwashing, decided to vote for this much demonised politician.
But the chances of his getting the power are ultra slim. The elite will use all their bag of tricks to stop him. If he succeeds against all the odds, they might grow desperate and either resort to murder (probably a well organised accident) or some Assange style operation. Or they will simply sabotage whatever he tries to do. They might also try to corrupt him and to gradually transform him into one of them.
In any case, the current policies relating to islamisation, population replacement and other painful problems will change only if the global superclass leaders change their mind about it. Which they probably won’t in foreseeable future.
So much for the rule by the people and for the people.
Dutch people have as much chance to control their elite as Dutch cows to control their owners.
You forgot one very important thing in your calculations, the Murphy Factor, the best laid plans of the kleptoclass always forgets this at their peril, the same class of Junkers that thought they could control Hitler when he took power found themselves in camps hanging from hooks. The so called Globullist are going to find this out themselves soon, and it is a day that cannot come too soon. The day of the military coming to rule with ruthless strongmen is coming, the weak, feckless west has allowed it to happen because good times have created weak men, what comes next, as history has demonstrated time immortal, is weakness in a vacuum breeds a strongman, without exception.
The question is what sort of strongman he will be and against whom he will use his strength. That is what sort of ideology he will be guided by. Another question – how intelligent he (and his entourage) will be? Strength without intelligence may prove self-destructive.
He is a very principled politician, so in these times of global dictatorship, he has to be very careful.
If you form true opposition, the powers that be will try the following tactics to “neutralize” your voice:
1. Ignoring you. If that no longer works, because you start to get known, they switch to
2. Ridiculing you. If you get more popular, and many people take your message serious in spite of mean ridiculisation, they resort to
3. Demonizing you. If your popularity increaes further in spite of (or because of!) their demonizing campaigns, they’ll try
4. Bribing you, trying to convert you into one of them ny providing all kind of benefits. If you don’t go for that “offer you can’t refuse”, they may continue with
5. Scandalizing you, by creating false scandals, including clear cases of libel. If that won’t diminish your popularity because the popelations sees right through it, they will consider committing the “final act”:
6. Liquidating you.
The list of victims over the course of history is immense.