As expected, the negotiations for a new Dutch government have hit an iceberg. Our Dutch correspondent H. Numan sends some educated guesses about what might lie ahead.

Pieter Omtzigt with the mask off

Between a rock and hard place

by H. Numan

The formation of a new cabinet in The Netherlands is dead in the water. Mr. Pieter Omtzigt walked out, for the flimsiest of reasons: he didn’t think the budget would be handled properly by the new cabinet. Nobody believes him. His party tanked from 20 seats to 11 seats in the subsequent poll. He still wants to support a PVV cabinet, but only as a minority government. What’s going to happen now is anyone’s guess.

I told you we have a pretty clear electoral result: it’s going to be either a somewhat conservative government led by the PVV, or an extreme left-wing cabinet led by the PvdA-GL. No other combinations are realistic.

Mr. Omtzigt’s suggestion for a minority cabinet is ludicrous. Most people don’t believe him anymore, if only for that flimsy excuse. Supposing Wilders were to go for that option, his cabinet wouldn’t last long. Omtzigt would blow it up on the first possible opportunity, no matter how minute, trivial or outright silly the issue might be. Wilders is the longest-serving politician in Parliament, so he knows that, too.

I had my doubts about Mr. Omtzigt, and told you many times about them. For those who don’t know: Pieter Omtzigt was a CDA politician; in that party he held two positions. He was their no. 2 man, and enfant terrible. All politicians are actors. Some are better than others, but they all are. Wilders, for example, stands out because of his hairstyle. That’s his trademark. His nickname is Blondie or Mozart.

Omtzigt played the role of a very conscientious hard-working politician (that he is), selfishly working for the betterment of the country and his party (bull crap). He led several investigations that didn’t make him a lot of friends in his party. The shooting down of the Malaysian Airlines MH 17 affair he investigated, and presented a report that was controversial for the government. Part of that government was his CDA party. He correctly placed most of the blame on Russia, something that the government rather wanted to ignore, but couldn’t after his investigation. Another investigation was the Childcare Scandal. This caused the collapse of the previous government, in which his own party CDA was a coalition partner.

As he was number two in the party, there were only two ways his career could go: up or out. Either he would become the next CDA leader or he would step out of the party. CDA leadership knew he was hugely popular, so they rigged the leadership elections. Not once, but twice. Just to keep him from the no. 1 spot. Had they elected him as the new leader, we’d have a CDA government right now. Instead they opted for a campaign of gossip, slander and innuendo that drove him out of the party after a nervous breakdown. The once almighty CDA has now shriveled to a mere fringe party.

At the time, I wondered why they preferred oblivion. His recent actions told me why. This man is a loose cannon. Uncontrollable, and worse: unreasonable. He knows everything, and you have to do exactly as he wants. If not, he throws a temper tantrum and has a nervous breakdown until he gets his way. However, there is more. Omtzigt is a wobbler. His favorite game is the yes-no game. That goes for most politicians, but he excels in it. He doesn’t want to say yes, because that would alienate some voters, but also he doesn’t want to say no, in fear of losing other voters. He is a guy sitting eternally on the fence.

He also fears responsibility. One of the reasons why he didn’t win the elections was that he openly said he didn’t want to become the next PM, without telling us who his candidate for PM would be. Only on the very last moment (mere days before the elections) did he decide to accept that position after all, but the damage was done. It played a big part why his party ended in third place. A lot of people, myself included, say: if you don’t want to become prime minister, why set up your own party?

There is something else that is also important. Within the CDA party Omtzigt represented the left wing. He always, from its beginning, was anti-Wilders, and anti-PVV, when Wilders formed that party. He presents himself as a sensible no-nonsense conservative politician. He is, but only to a very limited extent. He never voted for PVV proposals, on principle. Only if he had to. Within the CDA he led the left or anti-PVV wing. When he was ostracized from his party he took most of those left-wing anti-PVV politicians with him.

Right now his own party is in dire straits, because of that. The leadership wants that extreme left-wing government, but the common party members and, more importantly, the voters, want the exact opposite, a conservative PVV government. During the elections he didn’t say no (nor yes, for that matter) and gave his electorate the illusion he was open to anything. In real life, not so much.

Omtzigt’s dislike, if not outright hatred, for the PVV is strong enough that he destroyed his old party for it, and he will not hesitate to do that again. Last week, out of the blue, he announced he withdrew from further negotiations. Even his party leader was surprised to hear that. His excuse is lame, and not accepted. Why? Because he formed part of the parliament that controlled the previous governments that made that policy.

At first I thought Omtzigt was a functional autistic. Those people are extremely capable in their field, but lack empathy for anything else. He should have been an accountant or a member of the Court of Audit, not a politician. Now I believe the man sees himself as a kind of Churchill, fighting the evil nazi Geert Wilders. Churchill was at first not believed, and sent into the wilderness. So am I, Omtzigt thinks. Eventually people will believe me, if I remain strong in my conviction. The problem is that he is anything but Churchill. Much more of a Franz von Papen, who made an impossible cabinet possible.

So what will happen?

Absolutely no idea at all. Dutch cabinet formations are lengthy affairs, always. Our record is 299 days in 2020-2021. We’re only three months into the process. Anything can happen. I wouldn’t look surprised if NSC politicians kick Omtzigt out of his own party. After all, politicians are like second-hand car sellers. It’s a business and a living. What Omtzigt effectively did was to burn his business to the ground. The party he founded on 19 August 2023 is barely five months old. In less than a week he lost half of his electorate! That means half of his second-hand car sellers are potentially out of business, and they surely don’t like that idea.

A minority government with Omtzigt supporting from Parliament isn’t going to work. That would be like sitting in an electric chair with him smiling gleefully while holding the switch.

A left-wing government seems most likely for two reasons. The most important one is that these are the electoral results. Form a government with it, that’s your job! Most parties know that new elections wouldn’t be in their best interests. The left wing-communist party PvdA-GL would seriously lose, but the VVD and especially the NSC would be sliced in half. Even worse, the PVV would get most of those votes. At this moment they poll over 50 seats. It might even be possible voters are so angry they would vote en block for PVV so it could form a single-party cabinet! It’s not likely, but it becomes a possibility.

Forming that dreaded super-left-wing cabinet is not going to be easy either. The VVD cannot form part of it, out of principle. The leadership may be progressive; their voters are anything but. NSC voters are not going to like it either. As in the VVD, the leadership is very much in favor of a progressive cabinet, but the voters are not. That means once that cabinet falls, their parties will disappear. It happened to the CDA (43, now 5 seats), Labor (44, now 11 seats; merged into GL). The VVD and D66 already tasted of what is to come.

The game is still wide open, but I’m not optimistic. It seems very likely the VVD will choose to support a left-wing coalition, and damn the consequences. If a left-wing government is formed, they will likely have enough support in Parliament and the Senate to ignore any electoral consequences for the coming four years. I fear the VVD will take that chance.

— H. Numan

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