On Friday Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the whole cabinet resigned, ushering in yet another political crisis in the Netherlands. Our Dutch correspondent H. Numan sends his cogent analysis of what’s happening.

King Willem-Alexander — ‘F**k, now I have to come back from holiday…’

Mark Rutte is dead. Long live Mark Rutte!

by H. Numan

It’s official. Prime Minister (almost for life) Mark Rutte announced the resignation of his cabinet to the king last Friday. The cabinet couldn’t agree on the issue of (more) refugees. Progressive partners (D66, CU) wanted more, more, more refugees. Mark Rutte looked at the polls, saw his party rising, and said: Nope. Less, less, less.

I’m not optimistic about the end of Rutte. Give the man credit where credit is due: he is the longest-ruling prime minister in our history. That’s certainly an achievement. You could also say he’s the slipperiest eel of the nation. Some prime ministers don’t last a full term, let alone four. Here we see a serious defect in our constitution: there are no term limits. The chance that a PM could be re-elected four times in a row was so insignificantly small that nobody took it seriously. Until Rutte did it. Now this character even plans to run a fifth time! Many dictators-for-life don’t make it to ten, let alone twelve years.

I’m even less optimistic about him being a proper caretaker premier. Officially he’s supposed to mind the shop, nothing more. Well, he was also caretaker premier during the beginning of the Covid crisis. He openly said he rather liked it, because it saved him the hassle of working with parliament. He has learned a lot since, namely that he can exploit any emergency as caretaker. We have so many emergencies and crises I’ve lost track: a severe housing crisis. Of course the global warming crisis. A refugee crisis, which caused the collapse of the cabinet. A nitrogen crisis, a pension crisis. The list is almost endless. Don’t forget the missing children scandal that caused his previous resignation.

I think he’ll take as much time as possible to postpone elections and the later formation of a new government. As there is a crisis (just pick one), legislation cannot wait and has to pass parliament. He can rule like the Kims in North Korea, but longer.

At the same time I’m not happy looking at the opposition. Wilders and the PVV have been marginalized. Yes, they are there. But the media only report negative news about Wilders. There isn’t any juicy gossip to report, so they report nothing. It’s like they have disappeared or no longer exist.

The only opposition party that matters is BBB, the Farmers’ Party. Unfortunately, they’re making beginner’s mistakes. Lots of them. First they gave away their majority in the senate because veteran progressive senators were easily able to compromise with the government. Newbie BBB senators weren’t. Now, at this very moment, Mrs. van der Plas lost a lot of non-farmer fans by supporting a highly controversial law that allows the government to confiscate property to house refugees. And that’s the reason why Rutte all of a sudden finds something he doesn’t have: a spine.

A bit about this property confiscation law. It gives the government the authority to remove people from their homes without compensation or notice. This law is democratic in the same way the Enabling Act was democratic in 1933. Given his penchant for perverting democracy into ‘dhimmi’ and ‘crazy’, something to be expected from Mark Rutte. The vast majority of those refugees are young muslim males coming from safe countries. All they want, in their own words, are: a free nice house, a good job the dole, free medical care, a free car and the right to reunite with their families (free of charge) as soon as possible. Many of them, I kid you not, want — demand even — that The Netherland converts to islam, because islam is good.

You know all that. Nothing new here, right? What’s new is that the Farmers’ Party basically broke the opposition by compromising. Yes, they are willing to accept the spreidingswet (dispersion law), provided certain limitations were added. For example, no more than 15,000 refugees annually and some restrictions on what the government can do.

Not a lot, mind you, but enough to push the legislation almost through parliament. Almost, but not quite. That’s why Rutte had to resign. The Farmers’ Party is essentially a one-issue party. Only what matters to farmers matters to them. Anything else is, at best, extra. Here Rutte smells a chance. He can, as always, play the ‘we have to go tough on refugees’ card. With success, because BBB shows that they don’t care too much about the refugee crisis. That’s a city problem, even though almost all refugees are housed somewhere up-country — where farmers (BBB voters!) live.

There is a very good chance Rutte may be right. BBB clearly is a rookie party. You don’t give away your lead like that, ever! Only a rookie does. BBB show they don’t see city folks as important to them. That’s also a rookie mistake. Currently they poll at about 33%. The entire farmer population, man, women and child, is less than 6%. Even supposing all of them were to vote for BBB, which they don’t. Of course farmers’ issues are important, but if they want to be a dominant party in parliament, the other 27% matters more. Because of van der Plas’ willingness to cooperate she’s loosing ground. That’s all Rutte needs to pass her on the right, only to move to the left when he is re-elected.

It’s too soon to say what might happen. The cabinet collapsed Friday. Elections haven’t been called for, yet. Maybe somewhere in October? November? Later? We have been flooded with refugees since the crisis began in 1998, remember? A temporary refugee center was set up on Lampedusa. That was the beginning of the current crisis, almost thirty years ago.

Progressives are quite strong. I’d say about 40% of the electorate want someone to do something about refugees. Especially getting more of them. As long as they don’t have to foot the bill themselves, and just as important: as far away as possible from their homes. The other sixty percent are divided between “can we get a bit less” (BBB), “a lot less” (JA21) or “none at all” (PVV).

Another factor that will become import is Pieter Omtzigt. I’ve written about him; he was the no. 2 in the Christian Democrat Party. However, his party didn’t like him. So they did everything to hinder him until he left the party. Which he did, with his seat. They hated him so much that they as a party prefer to disappear into oblivion rather than support him and become the biggest party. Had he been elected chairman, he would have won the last election easily. He’s that popular.

Currently he occupies his chair, and claims he needs time to make up his mind. Will he join another party (BBB)? Set up his own party? Resign from politics altogether? We don’t know. If he were to join the Farmer’s Party as no. 2, they would win 50 seats in the polls, or more.

However, if he decides to form his own party (very likely), he’ll have to compete with the others and split the opposition. Alone, he’s good for 20-30 seats. The PVV is currently doing 17 seats; that will probably grow to 20 maybe 25 seats in the elections. Still, the media do everything they can to ignore Wilders, the PVV, the FvD and JA21. Only bad news is widely reported. Compare it with your US elections where Biden hides in his basement, is totally absent during the elections, spouts gaffes when he is present and wins by a landslide. It doesn’t make any sense. You know it’s bogus, but you can’t prove it. Even if you can, nobody notices it. Even if people do notice, what does it matter?

Caveat Emptor

I have to end with a warning. Caroline van der Plas and Pieter Omtzigt are not the droids politicians you are looking for. Both are mainstream politicians. Both are strongly in favor of the EU, have no problems with refugees; islam is for both not an issue. They don’t want to cooperate with Wilders or the PVV. They have very little in common with Wilders and don’t feel the same about political issues. What they share is coincidental: van der Plas is far more concerned about farmers’ issues, while Omtzigt battles corruption.

I hope you like those two swallows, but they don’t make a summer.

— H. Numan

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