Merkel vs. Seehofer: Who Will Win?

After a hiatus over the weekend, the political drama in Germany resumes today. The following report by Egri Nök discusses the standoff between Interior Minister Horst Seehofer and Chancellor Angela Merkel over the issue of open borders.

Merkel vs. Seehofer: Who Will Win?

by Egri Nök

Today Germany’s new Interior Minister, Horst Seehofer (CSU) will probably give orders to reinstate law and turn away obviously unjustified “refugees” from the border.

This would force Merkel, who is strictly opposed to that, to dismiss him — which would set loose a chain of uncontrollable events that, even though they will probably not cause her immediate resignation, will lead to it in the mid-term run.

Many speculate that this is the exact point of what Seehofer is doing.

Others speculate that this conflict is just being staged, to secure Seehofer’s CSU the Bavarian elections in October 2018, or even that it has been arranged between Seehofer and Merkel. I will look at how plausible that is (in short: not very).

We were the first internationally to sense the emerging conflict while it was still unfolding last Wednesday[1]. It is simple, but some of Angela Merkel’s own people seem so stunned that they have difficulties understanding what is going on — in an interview with BBC, an MP of Angela Merkel’s CDU party says on Saturday that he does not know “what the essence of the disagreement between the Chancellor and Mr. Seehofer was”, and that it was probably just a power struggle[2].

The international media, particularly the British, are blowing it up as a power struggle that is putting Europe and stability at risk, which is following the line of Angela Merkel’s spin doctors (via the German press agency dpa).

But the essence of the disagreement couldn’t be simpler:

Seehofer had been working on a catalogue of measures to gain control of the refugee crisis and the influx of illegal immigration into Germany, dubbed “Master Plan”, and Merkel is rejecting three of its 63 points. To turn away at the border “refugees” who demand entry to Germany but:

  • have already applied for asylum in another safe European country
  • whose asylum applications have been thoroughly reviewed and rejected and they have left the country and are now coming back for a second try
  • have, in the past, received a ten-year-ban on re-entering Germany (rarely handed out and only for first degree murder)

For a detailed record of events prior to last Wednesday, please see our article our earlier reporting[3].

On Wednesday night Merkel, Seehofer, and the new Bavarian president Söder (the last two both CSU) held a long meeting and offered Merkel compromises. In Söder’s and Seehofer’s account, they suggested that the measures be installed at the border, but then be suspended as soon she as finds the “European” solution that she so favors (and hasn’t been able to find for three years).

But Merkel staunchly rejected that — she absolutely did not want to turn away anyone at the border — until Söder said to Seehofer “this is pointless”, and they both left. In their accounts of the discussion, she appears to have completely lost touch with reality.

Much to their surprise, early next morning, Thursday, the press (via dpa) reported that Merkel had offered them compromises, but they had rejected them — an outright lie. According to this version, Seehofer allegedly said, “I can’t work with this woman anymore”[4].

Before noon that day, the Bundestag terminated their session to give CDU and CSU the time to hold emergency meetings.

Reading the account of the CDU fraction meeting is disturbing:

The mood is absolutely different from the fraction meeting two days before where the critics of Merkel’s course were leading. On Thursday the fraction members opened their requests to speak — strengthening Merkel — with the remark that they were sorry for not speaking out back on Tuesday, and were therefore responsible for the misperception that the chancellor didn’t have support in her fraction anymore.

The feeling of witnessing a historic moment seized some CDU MPs. Some fraction members raised the pathos of the moment by making comparisons to the near-split of the CDU-CSU Union under Franz-Josef-Strauß and Helmut Kohl, or even citing the final days of the Weimar Republic.


Some CDU MPs are stunned by hints from their colleagues in the CSU that of course they want to keep the union of the two parties — but that in order to do so, a change of the CDU leadership was necessary. CDU MP Kees de Vries provokes the opposite reaction when he calls to Merkel that he hopes that she will remain “our chancellor” until the end of the legislative period. This prompts spontaneous applause.[5]

Feelings are running high in the CSU, too. A CSU MP yells at a CSU colleague, in front of waiting journalists:

You are all nuts! Merkel doesn’t care for the German people, Merkel doesn’t care for the MPs! But you believe she’s the last super-European![6]

Reports from the CSU fraction meeting say that support for Seehofer was unanimous, and that many MPs demanded that action be taken immediately. But in Seehofer’s opinion the issue was too serious to rush, so he wanted to discuss it in depth on Monday with the Bavarian CSU MPs in Munich and get their consent, too.

The conflict had, in the meantime, found its way into the press, and depending on where you look, the polls show 80%, even more than 90% support for the Interior Minister.

Late Thursday afternoon, Alexander Dobrindt of the CSU — whom readers might remember from the video of Viktor Orbán’s visit to Germany in January that Vlad Tepes subtitled[7] — told the waiting press:

Parts of Seehofer’s “Master Plan” were “the direct responsibility of the Federal Interior Minister” and should be implemented without waiting for consent in Brussels.

It was urgently necessary to turn away refugees who were already registered in other EU countries, “to reinstate order at the borders”. This step was covered by German and European law[8].

This is the last official announcement that was made. We will hear the next official announcement on Monday — today.

It is not an exaggeration to say that Germany is holding its breath. When, for about an hour, the false news spread that Seehofer had left the government[9], the stock market and the Euro dropped for a moment. On social media, the first reaction was enthusiastic — only 25% of the electorate voted for Merkel — but no one knows what to expect.

Will Merkel dismiss Seehofer? This will break the government coalition — and ultimately, her. But in the interim, she could form a minority government with the Greens — they are already champing at the bit — and do even more damage to the country. So even the people who wish her gone are anxious.

Or will she find a “compromise” that Seehofer can accept, so that the coalition can be saved? At this hour [early on Monday morning CET], she is working frantically to find some sort of solution. She is trying to win time until a EU summit at the end of June, and has set up emergency meetings on Monday and for the rest of the week with other European leaders. Leaders who have already stated that they want to work with Seehofer, and whose countries are already practicing the policies that she so much opposes.

Is this all just staged, to secure both Merkel and Seehofer power? That does not seem very plausible. In the coalition negotiations in January of this year, the Social Democrats demanded “family reunification” for 390,000 Syrians in Germany. Their cases were already granted last year[10]. Seehofer terminated this and negotiated the Social Democrats down to a maximum of 1,000 people per month. He is not a globalist, and opposes Islamization[11] — the polar opposite of Merkel in every respect.

Merkel wouldn’t have retained power for the past thirteen years if she weren’t a ruthless strategist, and she is working on getting out of this situation without having to break the coalition. She might be able to pull another trick out of her sleeve, but her downfall has begun.

As the Neue Zürcher Zeitung put it, when Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and the new Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini stated that they would like to work with Seehofer:

“Europe is beginning to stand united — but not in a way that Merkel might like.”[12]



38 thoughts on “Merkel vs. Seehofer: Who Will Win?

    • Thank you! What a coincidence, I actually did read it, even before you recommended it. Achse is one of my favorite online magazines. I also recommend “Publico” (, a new format by Alexander Wendt.

    • I hope the article in the original German is more readable than the Google translation.

    • exactly, it’s too late, as they are agreed on continuing on bringing massive amounts of third world newcommers in each year to come ( plus family members back home for the ones that have already been there a certain number of years).

  1. I admit not to have deep knowledge of german internal politics. I have never heard before of Seehofer opposition to open border, neither of CSU opposition to open border. What I know for sure is that Merkel and her government swore to bring in 1 million (1’000’000) refugees each year in 2015. I remember I heard a lot of AfD opposition to this crazy policy (which enforced the multicultural enrichment in all of EU and had dramatic consequences in germany). So at this point now, what I know, is that this CSU party maybe is changing idea (because of fear of next election), but that it also share a lot of blame and shame staying together in the same government team with CDU of Mefkel. The question I am not able to answer is: can we trust Seehofer? I do not think is wise to give a second chance to traitors. Why Seehofer wait so long fo oppose Merkel/germany/EU migrant policy? Maybe I am wrong, because I do not understand german and do not know a lot of their internal politics…

    • Thats a valid point . In some countries MPs change parties numerous times to ensure their salaries and social status. Take South Africa as an example.

  2. There is also the possibility that Merkel will see the error of her ways.

    But I might be too optimistic sometimes.

    • I think today’s press conference showed that she is mad. I now believe that she will go the way of Honecker, Erich Mielke, and Ceaucescu.

    • Merkel will “see the error of her ways” if and when she is pointed toward a path which allows her to accrue even more power.

      There is always the possibility that her reward after retirement has been guaranteed…who knows?

    • Merkel seeing the error of her ways? Never happen! The female is an obsessed psycho absolutely hell-bent on transforming Germany and Europe into a mongrel, sharia-c0mpliant dungheap.

      It should be obvious by now that Frau Merkel’s mission in life is to destroy everything good and decent about Europe and its Caucasian people in order to achieve a mythical NWO Shangri-la ( aka Hell on Earth).

      Put simply: the Kraut Frau is a bona fide Nutter. Patriots must rise up and remove her and with extreme prejudice . Not a minute to waste . . . it must be done NOW!

    • In 2011 she declared publicly that integration is a total failure. In 2015 she was 180 degrees oriented. I am sure somebody got her by the [generative organs] and she is dancing according to the music of the masters. There is no way she is stupid or naive. She has no future, no children. So…she is just the interface of a superior structure.

  3. Hi Egri,

    My knowledge of German, such as it is, derives from following sung texts of Schubert, Bach etc and their English translations; however when you write “fractions”, I believe you mean “factions”. Not criticising, just trying to be helpful.

    I hope this is the beginning of the end for Merkel!

    • Mark, I was also confused by the use of “fraction” when I first started dealing with Continental politics ten years or so ago. But the usage is correct — and “faction” and “fraction” are interchangeable, although English-speakers normally use only the former word.

      Wikipedia says: “Fraction (politics), a subgroup within a parliamentary party”

    • Hi Mark,

      thank you! I’m not offended when you help me improve my English, quite to the contrary!
      If English speakers normally use the expression “faction”, then I shall use that expression in the future. Unless Baron objects 😀

      • Either one is OK. Our translators have used “fraction” extensively over the years. It’s an acceptable translation of the German word.

      • There seems to be a subtle difference between the two words.

        A “fraktion” is a group of people with more or less the same views operating within the parliamentary discourse. Usually as a party.

        A “faktion” is the same but operating outside the parliamentary discourse. Their theater of operations is the street not parliament.

        Hence CDU fraktion…
        and Rote Armee faktion…

        • Thanks all for your responses; what a high standard of erudition. I love Gates of Vienna!

      • In politics, fraction describe a small part of the bigger part. Like a group from a party. Faction describes a small part not necessarily connected to a bigger part. If connected to a bigger group, usually is a rebel small part against the bigger part.

  4. Seehofer is a professional politician, feeling the heat from his homeland and election time is hear. He is turning into the wind and now he feels strong enough to attack Merkel. There is nothing glorious happening there, just the rats are stepping on each other heads, while they try to escape from the sinking ship…

  5. Merkel’s sociopathic drive for power has been described by previous commenters, specifically DFD who used to hang out here.

    One defining trait of Merkel is she totally destroys not just her opponents, but her friends who stand in her way. She also seems to be of that subgroup of narcissist that shows their own glory through the deliberate destruction of their friends and supporters. From what I recall, her statements in public have always made it seem like she was suffering advanced dementia. But, while actual science has long since passed her by, she still deals in the quantum mechanics of influence-peddling, backstabbing, deceit and treachery.

    You have to feel sorry for the German people. True, they have not risen up with pitchforks and tossed this bureaucratic tyrant out. But then again, they have been living in a welfare state, controlled media, and police state for deviant thinking, plus a public education in ignoring logic. The time to stop the fascist state is not when it is at the height of its powers, though it’s corrosive effects are becoming plainer. The time is when it begins, with siren songs of state welfare and the trade of personal liberty for a little commercial benefit.

    • I will never feel sorry for the Germans
      They succeeded to destroy Europe the third time
      They can all go to hell

  6. Forget all your optimistic scenarios. Yesterday on some forum or another (Townhall IIRC) I opined that chances that Merkel would have to step down were 15%.

    Sadly I was right. PI News calls Seehofer “Drehhofer” (“Turn Around Hofer”). The man is a pansy. And she is a [she-dog] with a political survival instinct akin to HRC.

    My honest guess is that it would take at least 30 dead Mia’s, Iulia’s and Susanna’s to bring Merkel down. A sad and a horrible stat, but a realistic one. One should not underestimate the level of moral depravity of enormous swaths of West Europeans and Westerners in general. Merkel is STILL backed up by more than you would think possible.

    • I think your estimate of the thirty dead is optimistic. Never underestimate the blindness of those who are determined to make their fantasies true. That was Obama’s problem, too: no matter what the reality, he just kept on nattering his old leftist mantras. Thank God he’s gone. And he’d still be here, wrecking the country, if our Executive branch didn’t blessedly have term limits.

      • Uh, Dymphna, from my neck of the woods I do think it’s a reasonable tally to bring the Merkel Beast down. But then the Germans are neighbors. Spoke to some suppliers who came in last Friday, it was shortly after Susanna’s death and the day before, I think, Iulia’s body had been discovered. The German I spoke to told me that people were ‘really angry’. That on Facebook there was a TON of anti-Merkel buzz. I know, it’s all very wobbly, “how angry”? “how many FB users” etc.

        The urban elites are definitely a problem. Most of the captains of industry too. I’m thinking in particular about Dieter Zetsche, Chairman of Daimler AG. The car industry in Germany, in particular the Big Three, holds IMMENSE power and prestige. This Zetsche is very pro open borders. Aggravating things is that, as he was born in Turkey (his father was working as an engineer in that country, his mother had accompanied her husband there) Mr Zetsche has an unhealthy apprecation for all things Turkish. He is amongst others a member of the staff of the nonprofit Turkey: Culture of Change Initiative (TCCI):

        One cannot seriously expect “giants-in-the-shadow” like Zetsche to make a stand for a Christian Europe, or even a Europe merely respecting its (Christian) past.

        Oh well. Actually it’s very disheartening that we have to talk here about tallies of dead Fraulein needed to bring this wicked woman down. It’s horrible.

      • They will fix the internet and most of media. You will know about the dead only when you will see on your street. 1.000.000 Mia and Julia will remain unknown.

        • Fortunately, there are ways around the establishment media. Trump and Orban proved that. The pusback against globalism is real and it’s occurring in parts of Europe, the US, and Canada.

  7. who are the people in Germany that support Frau Merkel? Are there that many communists in Germany?

    • Nobody. Germany is an occupied country. German people don’t matter since 1945.

  8. OF COURSE, she’s a commie.
    A commie through and through.
    This, dear friends, is what commies DO!
    She has ALWAYS BEEN a commie.
    Hell, she escaped free West Germany to live in the commie east!

    Anybody think that Germany, or even the rest of EUrope will survive her?

    Me neither.

  9. We, here at GOV, have been watching this unfold over a number of years. I never thought the worm would turn so quickly. The old saying of “how did this happen” and the reply “slowly at first then all of a sudden” applies.
    Based on neighboring countries’ directives to close their borders, it seems that the best way to get into Germany is through the southeast, Bavaria. It seems the people of Bavaria have finally had enough of “refugees” trampling their crops, invading their villages and coming into their personal gardens. Seehoffer is supposed to be representing these people.
    The idea that Angela Merkel wants to continue this flood seems politically untenable and Seehoffer is nothing other than a stone cold pol…
    So, contrary to all those signs at the Berlin and Munich train stations, the people of Bavaria have had enough.
    At least I sure hope so.

  10. German people have since the end of WW2 been brainwashed and put on a guilt trip of responsibility for what their forefathers did or didn’t do. This has resulted in the German government being able to push the narrative of Germans must atone for our sins. Merkel used this narrative on students who stood at borders with arms open and waving welcoming signs to the invaders. Cologne happened and German men were afraid to go to the rescue of their women for fear of being arrested. Still Merkel pushed her immigration policy by constantly spouting that not all immigrants are the same even after a 5kid gets raped at a swimming pool and numerous others are assaulted. Well, maybe they aren’t all the same but until the so called good ones out the majority bad ones then we must stay with the opinion that all are bad.
    I have numerous German friends who are just too afraid to speak out against immigrants in fear of being called a fascist or a nazi but maybe, just maybe, the German people are starting to wake up and realize that unless this invited genocidal invasion stops their country and indeed Europe will face cultural extinction.

    • I know not many, if any, people will see this comment at this point.

      There are two large problems for a German pushback: genetic deterioration of the native German population due to welfare, and the military power of globalist organizations such as NATO.

      A pushback by an indigenous population always runs the risk of military intervention by accusations of genocide and racism. The NATO attack on Serbia and Serbian Bosnians and Kosovans is a perfect and recent example. The globalist organizations hate nationalism, and it’s critical for the larger countries that still identify as countries to not only withdraw, but extend all possible influence to break up the globalist organizations.

      I see no reason whatsoever to continue NATO. Russia is a country with an economy approaching the third world but still has a powerful military. So, the neighboring countries, without NATO, have to watch their step.

Comments are closed.