A Troika Emerges After the Austrian Election

As reported in the news feed last night, Sebastian “Boy” Kurz and the ÖVP came in first in yesterday’s general election in Austria. The results have shifted slightly since then, with the FPÖ dropping into third place, less than a percentage point behind the Social Democrats.

What makes this election interesting is near-parity of the three major parties. Any two of them could form a governing coalition; the other parties are negligible. This means that there will be intense haggling behind the scenes as the parties jostle with each other in a bid to form a government.

The players in this Troika are:

  • ÖVP (Österreichische Volkspartei, Austrian People’s Party)
  • SPÖ (Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs, Social Democratic Party of Austria)
  • FPÖ (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, Austrian Freedom Party)

The following analysis of the election by Elisabeth Sabaditsch-Wolff was published earlier at Tundra Tabloids in a slightly different form.

(Click to enlarge)

Analysis of Recent Austrian Election Results

by Elisabeth Sabaditsch-Wolff

The elections are over, but the real battle has begun. This is a short analysis of what happened because there is much more than meets the eye.

It is by far not certain that Kurz will be chancellor. I would, however, bet that the FPÖ will be part of the next government. Moreover, FPÖ will hopefully remain third. Why? Because they will be in the best position in coalition talks; they have more options.

Kurz is not in a very favorable position: his options are limited to a coalition government with FPÖ. If FPÖ gets a better deal from the socialists, then Kurz is history. We must also remember there is a lot of distrust between FPÖ and ÖVP. A lot. Do not assume that Kurz is chancellor already. He won, but not by as much as he had hoped for; and, in any case, we won’t know the final tally until Thursday.

Also, there’s trouble with trusting someone as young as Kurz in this. There is bound to be some kind of international pressure behind the scenes.

Kurz is a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations — just Google the members; it’s a Soros outfit! He refuses to discuss this membership.

What’s more, all of the ÖVP MEPs recently voted in favor of an abortion law passed in EU parliament. Some “conservative” party!

Also, Sebastian Kurz is not a good option for free speech proponents: he wants to tighten free speech laws; it’s written into the party platform.

Another reason is the failed Law on Islam. He knew the law was crap, but went ahead anyway. The law was passed, and now it’s officially been termed a disaster.

It is unlikely however, that Kurz will opt for an ÖVP-SPÖ coalition since he ran on a “change” ticket. The current coalition government was voted out of office very clearly and strongly. This means that Kurz’ options are two-fold: either he marries FPÖ at a very high price, or he goes into opposition. That would be the end of Kurz.

I’m not sure about the Greens yet; we won’t know for certain until Thursday, but they’re gone in any case.

Also, if you count the NEOS (Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum, New Austria and Liberal Forum), as conservative (which I personally disagree with), then you have Austria leaning 60% to the right. They are somewhat conservative on the economic and business side, but very liberal socially, staunchly pro-EU. They are calling for a United States of Europe. They are not our friends.

9 thoughts on “A Troika Emerges After the Austrian Election

  1. Many says Kurtz is an Austrian Macron. He just like his French counterpart made some populist statements to get the wind out the sail of the anti-migrant FPÖ. Once his in power then he will do exactly as Macron.

  2. The Greens (we call them Watermelons) are the same the world over–the best news from this election is that they are out of the picture. I hope it follows worldwide.

  3. Well, let’s wait until Thursday for a more detailed and reliable result than what is now in flux. 31 years of age is way too young to be leading a country, especially if Soros has his fingerprints all over that young man.

  4. Still waiting on some rural districts and the mail-in ballots to be counted

    If assume as in US that mail-in (absentee) trend right then FPO may wind up in second
    nosing out the Socialists

  5. He might not be ideal – but did he not run on a ticket of reducing illegal immigration? We will likely never get the perfect result – but as long as the movement is in the right direction, we should be happy.

  6. “but as long as the movement is in the right direction, we should be happy.”

    I disagree with you here.

    Suppose the demographic trends show that given the birthrates and immigration rate, the population replacement will take 30 years. A party runs on lowered immigration rates, such that replacement is projected to take place in 40 years. That’s an improvement, but it is something to be happy with?

    My analysis is that a lot depends on the actual opinions of the electorate. If the electorate is still brainwashed into thinking immigration and refugees are acceptable, there’s not much you can do, except a long-term program of education and co-option of institutions, as described in Alinsky’s “Rules for Radicals”. There’s also the possibility of supporting regional independence movements, resulting in more homogeneous units of governance. A diverse electorate dilutes the power of the people and gives power to unaccountable bureaucrats.

    If the electorate, or the voters who count, clearly support a particular course of action and the politicians use the bureaucracy to frustrate the wishes of the electorate, the strategy is to always vote for the party out of power, even if their platform is further from the ideal than the party in power. The reason is that with normal trends, you will lose anyway, so your play is to let the party in power know that if they wish to retain the prerogatives of office, they will have to pay attention to the people.

    There’s going to be a very interesting conflict along those ideas in the 2018 US mid-term elections. Steve Bannon is arguing to get rid of the fence-hanger Republicans, while McConnell and Gingrich argue that electable Republicans need to be nominated to increase the Republican majority over the Democrats.

  7. What is the “failed law on Islam”? Does she mean the Burqa ban which quickly turned into a shark-man ban?

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