Bulgarian Demographer: 100 Million Migrants in Europe by 2050

The following panel discussion from Bulgarian television takes a look at the bleak demographic future for Europe. Given the population pressure on Europe from Africa and the Middle East, combined with the birth rate of the migrants already present on the continent, there seems no way to avoid an irrevocable change to the culture and character of Europe. Even if immigration were cut off immediately, civil wars and violent upheaval are all but inevitable.

Many thanks to Tanya T for the translation, and to Vlad Tepes for the subtitling:

Transcript (times based on the original program):

36:31   Georgi Bardarov, associate professor, Sofia University
36:09   Let us hear Mr. Bardarov too, who has been quietly listening to our discussion so far
36:14   from the height of his position as a man of letters, a demographer and so on…
36:18   how he sees all this process — an ordinary refugee crisis or a civilizational shift,
36:26   and what did we, Bulgarians, learn about ourselves from this crisis?
36:31   [Georgi Bardarov, associate professor, Sofia University]
My opinion is that we have been witnessing global changes since the beginning of the 21st century,
36:36   and this is not some kind of temporary phenomenon. What puzzles me are other processes:
36:40   that Europe turned out to be unprepared for this refugee wave,
36:43   given the data from UN and Eurostat that I used four years ago for my monograph —
36:47   “Immigration, conflicts and transformation of identities in the EU”.
36:50   The UN published a chart that predicted 1.5 million immigrants per year as far back as 2007,
36:59   1.2 million from Asia, 377,000 from Africa each year.
37:03   If it really happens every year, if they were to be as many as last year,
37:06   this means that by the middle of the century
37:09   there will be about 60 million new immigrants, and taken together with those already living
37:13   on the continent and their high birth rate, this makes about 100 million by the mid-21st century.
37:16   so we really are witnessing a global change.
37:20   It is not without precedent in world history —
37:24   It is enough to recall the Migration Period, when the ancient world was populated by barbarian tribes,
37:27   or the settling of the New World by Europeans during the 19th and 20th centuries.
37:31   So, there have been replacements of populations many times in different places in the world.
37:35   This really is a threat from the viewpoint of Europe and Christianity
37:38   but it is a process that has happened before and is subject to causal links —
37:43   the colonial system, the suppressed development of these territories…
37:46   I too am of the opinion that this migration pressure will continue,
37:50   not to mention the pressure from Africa that has not yet been fully unleashed —
37:53   you have been talking about just Asian countries so far. The situation in Africa —
37:58   I’ll give Uganda as an example — it had a population of 24 million in 2001
38:05   and is facing a drinking water shortage. The UN’s projected population growth for it is 302% by 2050.
38:11   I even contacted the demographic agency of the UN, because when I saw this figure
38:16   I decided this was impossible — 302%. They replied to me that the figure is correct — they will be
38:20   100 million by the middle of this century. —Uganda? From 24 to…? — 100, in just 50 years.
38:24   And they are facing water shortage now. What will happen then?!
38:27   So, these really are global… — The African route passes mainly through Italy?
38:31   Through Italy and through Spain. Gibraltar and Malta as well.
38:36   We will return to this topic in a little while.
38:39   Now we will see the “small story” of a postman who lives in Golyam Dervent village
38:44   near our southern border [with Turkey] at the very end of the European Union —
38:48   a village that in recent years has got used to the changing faces of the refugees.
45:56   Very interesting testimony from the people in a small village in the EU.
46:01   I’m curious to hear your comments. Mr. Bezlov?
46:05   [Tihomir Bezlov, political analyst and crime research expert, senior analyst at the Centre for the Study of Democracy]
— My thoughts are that, as you see, the ordinary person
46:11   is not hostile, he is well-meaning in many aspects.
46:17   The problem is this common cry “To Sofia”.
46:25   This is where the risk lies, because the incidents on the part of
46:31   both nationalists and migrants happened in Sofia.
46:37   This is the place where we can witness real conflicts, which, in the long run…
46:43   Well, we discussed the topic of the clash of civilizations —
46:48   That is, this Islamic demography, which in many respects…
46:56   what is happening now did not start in 2013, nor with the Syrian crisis in 2011.
47:03   This has been the policy of the Islamic states towards Europe probably since the end of the ’80s.
47:14   But the change, the visible change — and by the way, it happened in 2015 within one month
47:23   in Germany — from 65% approval, according to opinion polls, from “welcome”
47:29   to a sharp change in the opposite direction,
47:36   And the rise of the far right. So what happened in Germany, and not just Germany,
47:40   also in Sweden and all of Northern and Western Europe,
47:44   totally changed this situation and I think that, unfortunately…
47:47   you don’t expect conflicts at the places where civilizations clash,
47:51   and we are one of the places at the fault line.
47:54   Let’s hear Mr. Bardarov’s expectations as well. How will this affect Bulgarian society?
47:59   I think that, on the whole, Bulgarians are the most tolerant ethnic group on the Balkans,
48:04   based on the demographic and ethnographic surveys I’ve made. —Are they, still?
48:07   Still, yes. I agree entirely that ordinary people are not badly disposed,
48:12   the thing is, that with much higher migratory pressure and the escalation of
48:16   conflict situations, these attitudes will change.
48:32   Unfortunately I, too, expect conflicts and clashes.
48:36   In Europe they are many, unfortunately — what happened
48:39   in Cologne on New Year’s Eve is unprecedented,
48:42   so, from this perspective, the future is not promising.
48:46   Finally, a question to our security experts.
51:14   Do you have any idea what the tax for passing through Bulgaria is?
51:18   I can tell you what the Afghan migrants… — They often pay in
51:22   Istanbul or Kabul to be taken to Germany.
51:26   I talked to Afghan migrants in … — those several hundred euros the trafficker gets,
51:30   or pays to cross the country, is part of the “package”.
51:35   Yes, just for… — The refugees don’t pay at the border. —For your information, and for the viewers,
51:39   the migrants in the center of Belgrade, who are stuck there because of the blocked Hungarian border,
51:44   I talked to many of them, they are between 17 and 22 years old — not one was older:
51:51   I could not find anyone who was 25 or 27 years old.
51:54   Not a single woman, though I went about for two days.
51:58   They all said that they had paid $10,000 to get from Afghanistan
52:03   to Serbia, $2,000 of that in Bulgaria.
52:09   That’s the tax, more or less. There is yet another version, however —
52:13   those who can’t pay agree to smuggle drugs.
52:17   There were such attempts, but that creates other risks,
52:23   the traffickers themselves find it risky, the sentences are quite different;
52:27   that’s why I believe those attempts were discontinued.
52:31   The huge difference is that in one case you go to prison for fifteen years, or ten,
52:36   and in the other you can get away with a conditional discharge.
52:42   It turns out they carry things that look like drugs, so that they could be detained…
52:49   The risks of the future, according to a criminologist —
52:53   Well, for me it’s not the criminal, but the social risk that is much bigger.
53:00   Because if you have, for example, in Sweden, 300,000 people from a totally
53:04   different culture, such as the Islamic one,
53:09   which is, by the way, hostile to the state — the Islamic family does not want its
53:13   members, the children to cooperate with the state.
53:16   If you have a culture like that — 300,000 in a population of nine million,
53:22   given the birth trend that Mr Bardarov described —
53:27   Yes. I mean, the risk is enormous.
53:30   Luckily for us, all these people, as you see, all these people want to go to Germany.
53:37   The problem is when they get stuck.
53:40   We witnessed this, with their getting stuck, even before 2013.
53:44   We will discuss the social risk another time, probably.
53:47   Thank you very much for being here.
53:51   Thank you for not avoiding this conversation. That is all for today. In order not to be accused
53:54   of manipulating this extremely delicate topic for our society,
53:57   we are leaving it up to you to draw your conclusions.
54:00   See you next weekend.

26 thoughts on “Bulgarian Demographer: 100 Million Migrants in Europe by 2050

  1. The African population will never see such numbers. Starvation, war, diseases such as Ebola and HIV, will keep the population pruned to a precarious balance.

    Europe will explode into war well before the middle of the century; frankly I would be surprised if they were not at war by 2020. The current situation will not be tolerated for much longer.

    • I agree.
      100 million immigrants in Europe by 2050? Theoretically, sure. In reality, no way. There will be war long before that. As The Moon above said, war by 2020 is highly likely, unless some drastic measures are taken to prevent that. With the way the EU has been handling everything, i.e. disastrously, the flood will continue until the EU collapses, the nations regain their sovereignty once again, and the people put a stop to this madness. Through violence, if necessary. Sadly, I see no other way out of this, than violence.

      • The question will be which side will the government be on – the same side it is on now?

        • The ability of the government to enforce its will on a resisting population is limited, if the resisters are smart: not fight the army or police. The army and police are always risky to use to suppress the citizens: there is a large possibility the army will turn its guns around.

          This is why the EU supports NATO so strongly, in spite of the fact it is no longer needed to protect against the USSR. Also, why the EU bureaucracy is trying to establish a country-free military. The EU is trying to obtain a military that has no identification with any particular country and therefore can be used freely to suppress dissenting populations. If the EU leaders had been smarter, and held off the crisis another 15 or 20 years, they would already have had the tools to enforce compliance, including possible invasions of Hungary and other Visegrad 4 countries.

  2. There’s a problem here.The African continent is vast .There are 54 countries in Africa. The most populous country in Africa is Nigeria with a current. population of 178 million.
    The total population living on the African continent is 1,2 billion.And they all want to move to Europe, America , Britain ,Australia and Canada.

    Let them in and Europe et al becomes an outpost of Africa.

    Then we have the Middle East. Afghanistan comes in at 33 million. You have sixteen countries in the Middle East with a total population of 411 million. And they all want to move to Europe ,America ,Britain ,Australia and Canada.

    Let them in and Europe et Al becomes Islamic

    The we have the populations off Bangladesh ,India and Pakistan.

    Bangladesh has a population of 1,566 million ,Pakistan has a population of 182,1 million,India has a population of 1,252 billion.

    And yes you guessed it they all want to move to Europe ,Britain,America and Canada and Australia for free housing ,welfare payments ,free education and free health care provided by the taxpayers of the host country.

    Is this sustainable ?No it isn’t.
    We either start closing the borders and shooting those who attempt to breach them:
    or we kiss goodbye to: welfare for our poor sick vulnerable and old ,our values, our civilization, our cultures ,Western democracy ,freedom of religon and our traditions.

    • Exactly!!

      The so-called experts on the panel never even breathed any idea of protecting borders. For them, European demographics are totally dependent on the pressure from Africa and Asia.

    • A hypothetical, rhetorical (and cynical) question:
      If it could be assured that Europe could import from Africa only black, law abiding, Christians willing to assimilate, as best they can, in numbers to match or overwhelm the muslim influx, would they?

      • Islamists already pose as refugees, so what would stop them from pretending to be Christians if it helped their invasion?

  3. The 100 million estimated by the Bulgarian demographer just might be a gross underestimation. The UN has different migration flows scenarios in mind for the corporate, un-elected government called the EU. There could be as many as 701 million destined, in total, for Western Europe. Of course, according to Eurostat there are millions (2.8) reported to have left the EU to destinations unknown or the net migration (the difference between immigration and emigration).

    Nothing clear is said on these sites about the over 300 thousand that’ve gone walk-about in Germany alone, who have failed to report back to their registration centers that supposedly keep track them. I don’t trust any of the data organizations like the UN, Eurostat etc provide because it’s not clear how the directives on family reunification (Directive 2003/86/EC on the right to family reunification) of the hundreds o millions expected to arrive in the EU-28 will be implemented, meaning, for every “refugee” who enters maybe 4 more from his family will follow. Well, I suppose only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity.

    • The ones who’ve gone walkabout have decided that there’s better prospects to be had than living in an refugee reception centre, and have gone to live somewhere nicer, possibly supplemented by drugs, grooming, theft or other sources of income?

  4. I would be astonished if we get through 2017 without major political violence throughout Western Europe.

  5. “53:30
    Luckily for us, all these people, as you see, all these people want to go to Germany.”

    When he said that, it was like a cold fist gripping my heart. Not that it is news to me. Still, to hear someone say it that that bluntly…

    • The words that actually should grip your heart are “The German authorities have no intention of stopping them.”

      The words which should lift your heart would be “German authorities plan to ring Germany with a high-tech wall and minefields, and deport illegals immediately, even if to the Serengeti desert, in the face of intentions by a billion Africans to come to Germany”.

      Totally not dependent on the population pressures and intentionality of Africans and Muslims.

    • But it is what a large part of Europe feels – after all, Merkel made them feel invited and entitled to welfare and housing, so they want to go to Germany, and other countries are keen to send them on their way as quickly as possible.

      I spoke last year to a taxi driver in Warsaw, who said he knows other taxi drivers taking Syrians to the German border, for around 1000 Euros (where do they get that kind of money, btw? It’s far cheaper by Polish railways, or buses).

      On the other hand, if Germany wanted to put a stop to the Islamic migration, I suspect other countries – especially in Eastern Europe – would be very supportive… At the end of the day, we are aware that this situation threatens not just Germany, but in the long run the whole of Europe.

    • The smart move for a German these days is probably to take advantage of EU mobility and establish residency (at least on paper) somewhere in Eastern Europe, before EU mobility gets cut off. Most likely, when it does, those already having residence papers/registration of some sort will be allowed to stay, but new ones not allowed to move.

      I don’t mean to get on the “Germany is done, stick a fork in it” bandwagon, because it’s not yet *quite* that bad, but absent AfD winning handily within a few years, it will be, and that that point, “it” will start going downhill even faster, and it may be too late to run easily.

      I’m no great believer in running, when there’s any hope at all of turning the tide, but when there’s no hope (i.e., the current situation +5-10 years), then running is the only sane option and is no longer a cowardly thing to do.

      • I have great sympathy for anyone who is forced to flee their homeland.

        My homeland is the Sovereign Commonwealth of Virginia. Here I was born, and here I will die.

        I’m an old man now, and don’t see a future anywhere else. I can delight in the attractions of other places, but this is my home. If I were younger, I’d vow to fight for Virginia. As it is, I’ll just stay where I am and do what I can.

      • But will Germans want the wages and career opportunities of Eastern Europe? (or lack of them)

        It’s a dilemna… and I would very much hope that such a migration would not represent a European version of the Californian exodus – liberal Californians moving out to formerly “red states” like Colorado, and turning them blue. (perhaps one could call it “Californication”)

        As for there being “no hope” in staying it one’s home. Some would say there is always hope… even when that home is Aleppo.


  6. Clearly, those great “powerful” “powers that be” are absolutely determined to do absolutely nothing–ABSOLUTLEY!
    They are simply willing to stare at the problem and do nothing at all about the problem of such a vast influx of HOSTILE, UN-ASSIMILABLE YOUNG MEN (I. e. soldiers of Islam.)
    …………All this is accompanied by reams of educated, erudite, (and impotent) blather amongst the EUropean ‘elite’.
    Did I mention that it is REPETITIOUS blather……in that we have heard it all before–over and over–FOR YEARS??
    This means that the unarmed, untrained, and oh-so-civilized lumpen-proletariat will be left to deal with the faux ‘refugees’. The common folk of EUrope.
    Aaand–the bill, (MANY bills) of course.
    Aaaand to pay for a higher standard of living (for them) than the natives.
    Aaaaand to deal with their own “Po-lice” forces brutally defending the rights of ALL those “newcomers” against the ‘old’ and obsolete native population. Soon, those forces will assimilate enough invaders so as to become their spearhead. What fun.

    Anybody out there as bored as I am to watch this insanity?

    Oh well–back to the old reloading bench I go. Factory new ammo is still expensive–and the stuff I load is just a bit more accurate. (And…….keeps me occupied while waiting.)

  7. While reading the article I thought how lucky I am to be a citizen of an island nation. We don’t have thousands of kilometres of porous borders, only open sea. It’s not a guarantee of security of course, it just make the problem less difficult.

    Eastern Europeans seem more realistic than Western Europeans perhaps it’s the 1000 years of Muslim attacks and oppression.

    • Greece was also oppressed by Muslims for many centuries. Yet somehow they’re not as “realistic”…

      And out of the Visegrad 4, only Hungary has endured Muslim occupation.

      Perhaps the reason lies more in half a century of Communism – which taught patriotism and loyalty to the State, and made the citizens countries value freedom when they have it, as well as giving a good lesson in what leftist propaganda looks like?

      Also, when Eastern Europeans move west in search of work, eg the Polish influx into Britain and Ireland, they live less in places like Islington or Hampstead, and more in cheaper, more “culturally enriched” places like Luton or Tower Hamlets. Additionally, they’re less likely to enjoy a curry, kebab or Starbucks coffee – but are more likely to work in a curry house, kebab shop or coffee shop. Often their managers or co-workers are Muslims – and one can read about the many gripes of Poles living and working alongside them on Polish online forums. Added to that are a fair number of horror stories involving grooming or abduction by Muslims (I personally know of 2 such cases, in London).

      Perhaps then this is one of the reasons why there is more opposition to accepting “refugees” among Poland’s young, and less among the elderly, and why in the last Polish elections, among Poles in the UK, the first and 3rd most-popular parties were far-right, while the winning party (itself populist, anti-EU and anti-refugee) came only second?

  8. I also included Muslim attacks, not necessarily occupation. It’s difficult to determine how realistic the Greeks are, they’re on the front line after all and the EU has the whip hand, they have to ‘behave’. I know from discussion with Eastern European immigrants that their animosity towards Muslims and Turks in particular is part of the folk memory.

    In reference to Poles, there’s also prejudice against them from ‘Anglo -Saxons’.

    People in Western Europe and the West in general seem to be ignorant of how close Western Civilisation came to extinction in the 8th century. It all started with the Crusades as far as they’re concerned.

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