Despite the odds that the bookmakers were giving a few days ago (three to one against), Britain has surprised the world — and especially the world financial markets — by voting to leave the European Union.
That’s according to the latest projections, including the BBC’s. However, it’s still theoretically possible that the remaining constituencies will tip the vote back to “Remain”. Not likely, but possible. So keep the cork in the bubbly for just a little while longer…
I was convinced that a majority of Britons would vote for Leave, but that postal vote fraud and other shenanigans would make sure that the referendum would deliver the results required by Frau Merkel and Messrs. Cameron and Juncker. So that means that there must have been a VERY large margin of victory for Leave, given the amount of likely fraud.
It reminds me of the Nicaraguan election of 1990. Do you remember when the Sandinistas agreed to hold an election that ended up voting them out of office?
They were certain they would win. The opinion polls said they would win. Jimmy Carter — who thought the Sandinistas were jes’ fine — was sure they would win. That’s why he talked them into holding the election: it was a way to shut those nasty conservatives up for good, and give the communist dictatorship the imprimatur of electoral legitimacy.
But it didn’t work out that way. Nicaraguans went to the polls and voted the commie rascals out. There was only one explanation: Those voters must have — gasp! — lied to the pollsters.
Now why would any comrade in a socialist paradise feel the need to do that?
Britain is nothing if not soviet-like in its current political architecture. All British citizens know that they can lose their jobs, their benefits, and possibly even face prosecution if they hold certain publicly-stated opinions.
And they know that Her Majesty’s Government has full access to all their electronic communications, including telephone calls.
So when a pollster calls, the polling company and its sponsor may not know the voter’s identity, but MI5 certainly does! The intelligence agencies know the name, address, and bank balance of the person who owns that particular phone. They may even know what he had for breakfast, depending on how up-to-date his “smart” kitchen appliances are. And now they have a digital recording of what he just told the pollster.
So tell me: if you were a Briton with a functioning cerebral cortex, would you tell the truth to a pollster?
A lot of changes are likely to come about because of the vote for Brexit. It’s too early to predict them all, but one of them may be the resignation of David Cameron and the appointment of a prime minister named Boris Johnson. That will be interesting, especially from a tonsorial perspective. Just imagine the first meeting between Prime Minister BoJo and President Trump…
Here’s what Reuters says about the projected result:
Britain Votes to Leave EU in Historic Divorce: BBC
LONDON — Britain has voted to leave the European Union, the BBC said based on voter tallies from Thursday’s referendum, an outcome that would set the country on an uncertain path and deal the largest setback to European efforts to forge greater unity since World War Two.
World financial markets dived as counting from 304 of 382 areas showed a 51.5/48.5 split for leaving. Sterling suffered its biggest one-day fall of 9.4 percent against the dollar on market fears the decision will hit investment in the world’s 5th largest economy, raise questions over London’s role as a global financial capital, and usher in months of political limbo.
The euro slumped nearly four percent against the dollar on concerns a “Brexit’ vote would do wider economic and political damage to what would become a 27-member union. Investors poured into safe haven assets including gold, and the yen surged.
In an early mark of international concern, Japan’s top currency diplomat Masatsugu Asakawa said he would consult with Finance Minister Taro Aso on how to respond to the market moves, describing the foreign exchange moves as very rough.
Yet there was euphoria among Britain’s eurosceptic forces, claiming a victory they styled as a protest against British political leaders, big business and foreign leaders including Barack Obama who had urged Britain to stay in the bloc.
“Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom,” said Nigel Farage, leader of the eurosceptic UK Independence Party.
“If the predictions are right, this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people…Let June 23 go down in our history as our independence day.”
He called the EU a “doomed project”.
Asked if Prime Minister David Cameron, who called the referendum in 2013 and campaigned to stay in the bloc, should resign if Britain voted for Brexit, Farage said: “Immediately.”