Moldova did not exist as a sovereign nation-state until after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Earlier in its history it had been Moldavia, which was variously part of the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, Romania, and then the Soviet Union. When the USSR fell apart, the Moldavian SSR declared its independence as Moldova, and along with Ukraine became an autonomous state.

Like much of Eastern and Central Europe, Moldova is an ethnic hodge-podge. Its largest ethnicity is comprised of Moldovans (who are, for all practical purposes, Romanians who happen to live in Moldova). Ukrainians, Russians, and Gagauzes (a Turkic ethnicity) form small minorities within Moldova. Gagauzia is an autonomous region within Moldova for those who speak the Turkic Gagauz language, but are Eastern Orthodox Christians. The region across the Dniester from Moldova proper is known as Transnistria. It is ethnically distinct, with a slight Russian plurality, followed closely by Moldovans (Romanians) and then Ukrainians. It seceded from Moldova back in the ’90s and declared its independence as the Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic, although it is not internationally recognized.

The potential for civil strife is ever-present, because the Gagauzes and the Russians in Transnistria lean towards Russia, while the rest of Moldova leans towards Romania and the EU. To complicate matters further, Gagauzia recently threatened to declare independence if Moldova moves to unite with Romania.

Now NATO has stuck its nose into this cauldron of boiling Black Sea tar. According to a report published by The New Voice of Ukraine:

Moldova’s Defense Ministry announced the commencement of the JCET-2024 military exercises with US and Romanian forces starting April 1, the country’s Defense Ministry’s press service reported.

These exercises, set to run through April 19, aim to foster training and experience exchange among special forces and enhance the interoperability of the troops involved.

The training will encompass a range of activities, including parachute jumps, live-fire exercises during both day and night, and field training on specialized tasks, tailored to various scenarios.

This military collaboration occurs against the backdrop of NATO’s extensive Steadfast Defender exercises, which started on January 24 and are expected to extend through spring 2024.

An essay on the topic by Stephen Bryen has a wealth of additional detail, and Simplicius the Thinker, who is always worth reading, has woven it into his latest Substack.

I’m a rank amateur on these matters, so it’s hard for me to parse out exactly what the USA and NATO are up to with this surge into Moldova, which is not a member of NATO.

It seems intuitively clear that this sudden interest in poking the Russian bear via a Moldovan surrogate has a lot to do with the fact that Ukraine is about to go down in flames, and within a year or two may no longer exist as a unitary state in its present form.

But what does NATO get out of playing around with Moldova? Is it an attempt to provoke Russia into attacking Romania, thereby triggering Article 5 of the NATO treaty? It’s obvious that our neocon masters badly want a war with Russia, and this may be yet another ploy on their part in an effort to achieve that goal.

Or is it the proximity of Moldova to Odessa? Some of the analysis suggests that NATO would like to use Moldova as a way to prevent a successful capture of Ukraine’s last major stronghold on the Black Sea. But I don’t understand how that would work, since it would involve a NATO operation within Ukraine itself.

I recommend reading all of the linked material. Maybe you all can do better than I can, and make some educated guesses about what the military geniuses in London and Washington D.C. think they are up to.

Hat tip: WRSA.