Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid

If Wilders comes, can Le Pen be far behind?

PEGIDA’s Press Nemesis in Saxony is nervous about Geert Wilders.

From Sächsische Zeitung, translated by JLH:

Europe is Trembling With Fear At the Dutch Election

The Dutch election is not just about the right-populist Wilders. The future of Europe is at stake. A win for the EU opponent could be the overture to a much greater disaster.

Geert Wilders has little sympathy for the European Union

From Reuters:

Europe and the Netherlands. It has long been a ticklish relationship. Just a year ago, Prime Minister Mark Rutte suffered a severe defeat when the EU agreement with Ukraine was rejected in referendum. Now the campaign of the right-populist Geert Wilders — admired by like-minded Germans in the AfD — is stirring things up against the EU. Europe and Germany, too, have something to worry about.

Of course, polls indicate that the parliamentary election on Wednesday will change little in the leadership in the Hague. The probable scenario is that Rutte will stay. Most recently, his right-liberals were first with 16%, leaving Wilders and the Party for Freedom behind. Nonetheless, politically, Wilders is herding the moderate Rutte along. Since he made points with fundamentalist opposition to Brussels, Rutte too has been shying away politically from Europe.

This was demonstrated by a vignette on the margins last week in Brussels. The 28 heads of state were analyzing the situation in the western Balkans, which the EU would like to bind to itself instead of leaving it to the influence of Russia or Turkey. But there could be no draft proposal for the entry of other states, thank you very much. A bigger EU would not be good for Rutte’s campaign.

His EU partners went along without complaint. No one wants to turn a founding member into a shaky candidate. Outside of that, beyond the Netherlands’ elections — like a grim version of the domino theory — a potentially greater disaster is conceivable: a win by the right-populist Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election. That would be “the end of Europe as we know it,” said the French-born EU commissioner Pierre Moscovici recently to Zeit.

Even if it does not come to that, a decent political result for Wilders and Le Pen could shake the European landscape right up until the September election. That is, it could give the presently weakened AfD wind in its sails.

Tense and concerned, Germany too is watching the elections in the neighboring land. Except for the AfD, no one would rejoice at a Wilders success. Frauke Petry — by no means unchallenged — sought a show of solidarity with Wilders and Le Pen in January and found it in a common event in Coblenz.

At any rate, in the case of a massive defeat of the PVV, the AfD runs the risk of being pulled down, too. Polls for them have soured in recent weeks, since the entry of the SPD candidate Martin Schulz. Intra-party strife surrounding right-extremist Björn Höcke has contributed to this.

Chancellor Merkel has shown herself to be unruffled by the elections in the Netherlands. If the right populists in Europe all lose in popularity, she may feel confirmed. If Wilders and then Le Pen grow stronger, her chances for another term will not depreciate. The stronger the AfD, so much fewer are the ways that lead to a continuation of the great coalition after the parliamentary election on September 24th.

The elections in a large member state like Germany are also of central importance for the EU this year. Until then, nothing much will happen on European territory. Greek debt, Italy’s demands, the disagreement with Poland. Until then, Merkel will avoid anything that might decrease her election chances.

20 thoughts on “Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid

  1. “Rutte too has been shying away politically from Europe.”

    He’s just playing games.

    Like “cast-iron” Dave.

  2. The world is going to war, the Islamo-Fascist world war and everybody has a nuke but me………

  3. “…Merkel will avoid anything that might decrease her election chances.”

    …Typical politician… Never mind the fact that she’s supposed to be serving her country…

  4. ‘Right-populist?’ Not extreme far right populist, far right wing politician or horror of horrors, anti-Islamist?

    So why has the thinking changed in the narrative for the status quo?

    However the thinking has changed, the awake Dutch will not forget what Rutte has allowed to be done to their country and no amount of fake news will shore up his losing position.

  5. It’s rather telling that the writer of this claims that no one but the AfD would be pleased by Wilders’ victory. Naturally, the scores of Mr. Wilders’ own countrymen who would have voted for him are not even worth considering. These governments and the mainstream media are no longer on the side of the people they are supposed to be serving, but rather are slaves to their abstract ideology which has shown itself to be incompatible with reality.

    Also, keep in mind that the polls during the US election were giving Clinton a 90-something% chance of winning, so I wouldn’t sleep too easily if I were Rutte.

  6. I was disappointed that Nigel Farage stated he’s against Wilders. Farage is not against Islam.

  7. I think Farage is playing his cards close to his vest.
    You folks are right. He ignores most things on Islam.
    Perhaps he is avoiding the deadly ‘Racist’ label.

  8. The people of Europe only have a reason to be afraid, because the the EU have created the situation for them to be afraid. There has to be a change, and for good or bad, it will come.

  9. The political landscape of the Netherlands consits of many political parties.
    In reality one could only expect some major shift of voters between parties inside the same spectrum.

    Only a big scandal or the total collapse of a main party would change that.
    But the Netherlands are not France.

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