The Iranian navy is up to its old tricks, interfering with commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Its vessels attempted to seize two oil tankers, and the U.S. military is offering to put guards on commercial vessels.
Below are two recent articles about the situation there this week. The first article is from Arab News:
Iran tried to seize 2 oil tankers near Strait of Hormuz and fired shots at one of them, US Navy says
DUBAI: Iran tried to seize two oil tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz early Wednesday, firing shots at one of them, the US Navy said.
It said that in both cases, the Iranian naval vessels backed off after the US Navy responded, and that both commercial ships continued their voyages.
“The Iranian navy did make attempts to seize commercial tankers lawfully transiting international waters,” said Cmdr. Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet. “The US Navy responded immediately and prevented those seizures.”
He said the gunfire directed at the second vessel did not cause casualties or major damage.
There was no immediate Iranian comment on the incidents.
Ambrey, a maritime intelligence service, said the tanker that was fired upon was a Bahamas-flagged, Greek-owned, US managed crude oil tanker transiting from the United Arab Emirates to Singapore. It said the firing of shots happened 28 nautical miles northeast of Muscat, the capital of Oman.
The US Navy says Iran has seized at least five commercial vessels in the last two years and has harassed several others. Many of the incidents have occurred in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Arabian Gulf through which 20 percent of all crude oil passes.
The second report is from Reuters:
Iran boosts navy with missiles, drones as US offers guards for Gulf ships
DUBAI, Aug 5 (Reuters) — Iran has equipped its Revolutionary Guards’ navy with drones and 1,000-km (600-mile) range missiles, Iranian news agencies reported on Saturday, as the U.S. offers to put guards on commercial ships going through the Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz.
Referring to the possible presence of U.S. guards, Iranian armed forces spokesperson Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi said the region’s countries were “capable of ensuring Persian Gulf security” themselves.
“What do the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean have to do with America? What is your business being here?” Shekarchi was quoted as saying by the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
State news agency IRNA said the Revolutionary Guards’ weapons include “various types of drones … and several hundred cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 300 to 1,000 km are among the systems and equipment that were added to the capabilities of the Guards’ navy today.”
Earlier this week, Washington said it could soon offer to put armed sailors and Marines on commercial ships in the region following Iran’s seizure and harassment of vessels.
Last month, it said it would send additional F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, along with a warship to the Middle East, to monitor waterways. About a fifth of the world’s crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman.
I’m a complete amateur when it comes to geopolitical gamesmanship, but several questions come to mind when looking it these data points:
| 1. | Russia has been consuming enormous quantities of Iranian-manufactured drones during the war in Ukraine. Is Iran perhaps testing out some new models in Strait before beginning mass production? | |
| 2. | American naval assets that are tied down in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz can’t be sent to the Black Sea or the South China Sea. Is that part of the strategic calculation here? | |
| 3. | Interfering with oil tankers in the Strait may drive the price of oil up even further. I’m sure the Russians are OK with this, but what do the Chinese think? | |
| 4. | Or is it possible that all this brinkmanship on the high seas is driven by domestic political calculations within Iran? |
Just wondering.
This has been discussed on “The Duran” but not this specific incident.
Basically what it boils down to is that Russia has escalatory dominance in that whatever provocation Elensky does at the behest of his western backers, the Russians can one up him. Many people expect Russia to retaliate on the battlefield in a tit-for-tat kind of move. However, the West plays checkers while Putin plays chess.
Attacking Moscow apartment buildings with drones results in munitions deals in the best Korea, drone purchases from Iran, serious discussions over a gold-backed BRICS currency, and in the current Iran drama, attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
Driving up the price of oil most certainly is a strategic objective if your country is one of the world’s largest producers of oil. It certainly doesn’t harm the Saudis or the Iranians or Venezuela, or any of the OPEC members who now make more from each barrel of oil. But it seriously harms western economies. And friendly nations to Russia like China and India likely get a discount on the Russian oil they receive so price increases don’t hurt them as much, and in the case of India they just pass the cost on to Europe by charging them more for the Russian oil they re-label and sell to them.
Lastly, Iranian provocation of US naval assets will have the same effect Russian destruction of Western equipment on the Ukrainian battlefield has on the rest of the world. Those countries which used to fear the US military are coming to realize that we aren’t ten feet tall and bulletproof, that we aren’t even a paper tiger but a paper dog; all bark and no bite. Iranian shore-based assets could easily sink those multi-billion dollar aircraft carriers and the Pentagram certainly knows it. They’re just praying that the Iranians don’t call their bluff. As long as the West continues to be defeated in detail economically, which is the power that really matters, there is little reason to beat us militarily except to rub our noses in our weakness.
There’s also a tit-for-tat aspect to this: Ships believed to be carrying sanctioned Iranian oil are stopped on the high seas pretty much around the world. One, seized by the US, sits off the coast of Texas waiting to be unloaded, but no refinery wants the oil for fear of retaliation by the Iranians taking other ships with oild destined to them.