A prolific jihadist sympathizer has posted an ‘explosive’ study on one of the main jihadist websites in which he laments the dire situation that the mujaheddin find themselves in Iraq by citing the steep drop in the number of insurgent operations conducted by the various jihadist groups, most notably Al-Qaeda’s 94 percent decline in operational ability over the last 12 months when only a year and half ago Al-Qaeda accounted for 60 percent of all jihadist activity!
The author, writing under the pseudonym ‘Dir’a limen wehhed’ [‘A Shield for the Monotheist’], posted his ‘Brief Study on the Consequences of the Division [Among] the [Jihadist] Groups on the Cause of Jihad in Iraq’ on May 12 and it is being displayed by the administration of the Al-Ekhlaas website-one of Al-Qaeda’s chief media outlets-among its more prominent recent posts. He’s considered one of Al-Ekhlaas’s “esteemed” writers.
The author tallies up and compares the numbers of operations claimed by each insurgent group under four categories: a year and half ago (November 2006), a year ago (May 2007), six months ago (November 2007) and now (May 2008). He demonstrated that while Al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq could claim 334 operations in Nov. 06 and 292 in May 07, their violent output dropped to 25 in Nov. 07 and 16 so far in May 08. Keep in mind that these assessments are based on Al-Qaeda’s own numbers.
The author also shows that similar steep drops were exhibited by other jihadist groups, and he neatly puts it all together in … two charts…
The charts are on Talisman’s post; just scroll down. Even if the exposition is in Arabic, the scale of the drop is self-evident.
Talisman reports what he predicted (quite accurately as it turns out) for Al Qaeda in Iraq several months ago:
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This sense that they were running out of time compelled Al Qaeda to take a bold initiative of declaring the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq four months back, appointing the hitherto unknown Abu Omar al-Baghdadi as its head. This was no propaganda stunt for Al Qaeda. This was the real thing: the nucleus state for the caliphate, with al-Baghdadi as the candidate caliph.
But this was a fatal strategic mistake for Al Qaeda, a mistake that threatens to pull down all the other jihadist insurgent groups along with it. Al Qaeda tried to leap over reality, but it was a leap into the abyss of uncertainty. Trying to pick a caliph is fraught with historical and judicial complications since there is no historical precedent – not even from the time of the Prophet Muhammad – that would serve for an uncontroversial transfer of power. It is one of the most delicate ideological matters among jihadists, a matter so sensitive that most of them have decided to leave it aside for the time being lest it result in splintering off dissenters.
But Zarqawi’s successors, who inherited the leadership after his death last June and who are, for the most part, rash young ideologues who consider themselves the avant-garde of contemporary radical Islamism, felt that the doddering old guard of Al Qaeda – aged and increasingly inconsequential has-beens such as Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri – would never summon the nerve to force the issue of the caliphate and get it going. So they rushed into action, and it has exploded in their faces, since no other groups seem enthused to join them in this risky venture. This mistake has huge implications for the Iraqi insurgency since Al Qaeda accounts for most of it, and its strategic and ideological failure can quickly be turned into a battlefield rout.
Now: if the MSM were willing to report on the reality rather than their wishful thinking, this thing could be ended even sooner.
Remember: when victory comes, it will not be because of any help that Iraq or the Coalition received from the media, the useful idiots in our Imperial Congress, or the small but ferocious anti-war leftists who would have had us on the roof of various palaces, helicopters at the ready, to abandon our colleagues to their fate.
These people simply don’t understand commitment beyond the pain of losing soldiers, or staying to fight when the going gets rough. They are the turn-tail-and-run group, which has always existed in American culture, and always will.
We are learning how to build work-arounds against the worst of their predations, and America and her allies will prevail against them this time.
If we can just keep the kid who wants to “dialogue” with murderers and tyrants out of office and we stand a chance for victory in Iraq.