H. Numan’s latest essay provides an overview of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Heim ins Reich
by H. Numan
Russia attacked Ukraine. They don’t want Ukraine, they want Mykraine.
I was watching this when things started to heat up. I thought: either Putin will attack right now, or he will wait until May-June. There’s a reason for that. The same reason why Germany attacked on 22 June 1941. The reason is mud.
Most people know Germany got stuck in the mud during the autumn rains deep in Russia. That season is called Rasputitsa. It’s not one season, but two. First you get the autumn rains that turn the ground into a quagmire. Snow and frost make it passable. The second Rasputitsa people always forget. During the spring, thawing turns the ground into a quagmire again. That’s the reason why Germany couldn’t attack earlier. A few weeks earlier wouldn’t have made any difference to the outcome. Winter didn’t defeat them; the Red Army did.
I’m certain people will come up with the attack on Yugoslavia to counter my argument. That attack didn’t influence Operation Barbarossa significantly, not enough for it to fail. It lasted 12 days (6-18 April 1941) with a mere 151 casualties on the German side. April is well within the Rasputitsa season, so they couldn’t invade Russia anyway. It was too early in the season. You can only fight in summer and winter in Eastern Europe.
Putin is using that to his advantage. When the ruckus heated up I saw three possible options:
1: Acknowledge the breakaway areas as independent
Give them Russian passports, and send troops to defend the Russian population. That’s standard Russian procedure. Exactly the same happened in Georgia in 2008. Russia supported insurgents in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Gave the locals Russian passports and sent in peacekeepers. They are still there. He did it in Crimea in 2014 and again in the Donbas region a few days ago.
2: Occupy the entire Donbas region
Before hostilities began, insurgents and Russian troops occupied about 25%-35% of the area. There is a lot of industry and it has large mineral reserves, especially coal and gas. The population is pro Russian; Russian troops would be hailed as liberators.
3: Go for broke
Occupy the entire country. It’s clear now that Putin planned to do just that. The other two options make no sense. Option 1: Why do anything at all? Option 2: Looks good on paper, but it has some serious drawbacks. You see, Ukraine is largely flat country with a high mountain range in the west, the Carpathian Mountains. These are excellent for defense. The Germans were able to hold back a vastly superior Russian army for over a year during World War 2.
That’s what Putin wants to do. Occupy the entire country, set up strong defensive positions in the Carpathians during the Rasputitsa and wait for what comes. Which probably is not a lot. The EU doesn’t have an army. All EU nations have are a few clowns clad in green, except France and the UK. The state of the German army is pathetic. Years of serious neglect changed it from the backbone of Euro defense into a blunt broken butter knife. The Dutch army, by the way, is an integral part of the German army nowadays. In even sorrier condition. In the unlikely event we have to send our army to the Ukraine, the question will be: one or both soldiers?
France very clearly doesn’t want to fight for Ukraine, and why should it? Even economic sanctions won’t be unanimous. Germany and Italy do not want Russia out of the SWIFT system. [This article was written a week ago, but publication was delayed. The situation has changed.] The EU is strongly divided. Of course former Warsaw Pact nations are really worried. They know what’s coming. Everybody is doing what they do best: Light up a national monument with blue and yellow, and express support on Facebook. Oh, the EU announced very strong measures. Russia is banned from the European Songfestival. That’ll teach ’em!
America, then? With Biden? He’s likely to order his troops to move west of Kansas. The poor man has no idea what to do or where Ukraine is located. Perhaps he can ask his son, who has vast business experience in Ukraine. On second thought, better not. Let sleeping dogs lie.
Besides, Ukraine is not a NATO member. There isn’t a lot we can do. Sanctions won’t work. They usually don’t work on global powers. To remind you: every time Putin salami-sliced, sanctions were thrown in. With zero effect. All it did was show him what to prepare for. When he occupied Crimea, sanctions caused the ruble to drop. Not this time. Putin made sure of that. There is plenty of money in reserve, and he’s working with China to set up an alternative for SWIFT. In the international game of poker Putin showed his cards. Problem is that he holds four jacks.
Not aces, because not everything is going his way. First of all, his invasion is not working as smoothly as planned. Hitler had the same problem. The Dutch, for example, were supposed to surrender within 24 hours. We fought for five days. Ukraine is putting up a fairly credible defense. They will be defeated, but so was Finland in 1940.
Now it gets really funny. In both Europe and America the common man does not support military action. Only the progressive elites do. Look at the banner-waving and rally-round-the-flag rhetoric. The common man is not interested. Why? Well, the common man will be called up by the draft to die in a war that’s none of his business. Now things are getting messy, suddenly all military trannies and women look the other way. This is not what they signed up for. They want the respect for a uniform for free. Military women begin to realize rape happens a lot in combat areas. Not exclusively of women, but something they should worry a lot more about than men. The Russian army especially has a certain reputation here. #MeToo is not a Russian word!
The big words of president Brandon are coming home to bite him. Let’s go! He literally said during his election campaign he would make mincemeat out of Putin. Will he? Tell us how. The very shady business dealings of his son in Ukraine were covered by him, as vice-president. Something that would stay nicely under the rug if not for the unfortunate events happening right now. Either the Republicans will start asking questions or Putin will. Or both.
America just suffered its biggest defeat ever. The withdrawal from Afghanistan trumps Vietnam by a mile. Vietnam was a nation, with the resources and determination of a nation (plus a superpower). In Afghanistan the US Army withdrew after a few Neanderthals with stone axes got unruly. No superpower was involved. They left equipment worth $80-$100 billion behind. More than enough to set up a medium-sized regional power. Believe me, if sleepy Joe were to donate $100 billion to the Bundeswehr, Putin would withdraw immediately!
That kind of defeat is rather embarrassing. I’m certain Putin toasted with champagne when it happened. “We won’t have to worry about America in the coming decade!”
There is also a huge red dragon in the east. It’s possible Xi Jinping will grab the chance and invade Taiwan. Not likely, as I wrote earlier. Taiwan knows China is coming for them as long as they exist. Just not when. They’re ready anyway. For Xi this is a golden opportunity. A geriatric moron in the White House, who has to focus his attention on
ice cream Ukraine. That’s like a kid in a candy store with nobody watching.
That geriatric moron in the White House has been busy politicizing the Pentagon by appointing transvestites and women as generals. I kid you not. That’s what happening right now. Putin knows it. So does Xi. Almost certainly the reason why Putin decided to attack now is exactly Biden. Both of them will never get a better chance. From now on, things will get tough. Really tough.
On both sides of the pond we see utter disdain for the common man. The left clearly forgot how they railed against nationalism, the military and borders for the last half-century. Nationalism was bad. Soldiers are bad. Borders don’t matter. All of a sudden, they beat on the drums of war and expect everybody to do their bidding as usual. Why don’t they respond? Sorry, it doesn’t work that way. We, the common men, have bigger worries. Gas prices are exploding. Fuel prices, especially of natural gas (most of which is imported from Russia!) in Europe have doubled and will double again. Yes, natural gas prices are quadrupling. You read that right.
At the same time, all pet projects of the left continue like nothing has happened. The Dutch government promised €60 billion for the environment. Muslim refugees (almost all are male only) are coming in as before. You haven’t heard about it, but in Holland this is getting close to boiling point. Several strikes of public transportation workers show they’ve reached the end of their tether. In one refugee center alone more than 50 illegal immigrants are detained on serious criminal charges, without being deported. This week the first batch of real refugees from Ukraine are coming to places that are fully booked. Those Ukrainian refugees, by the way, are real refugees. Most of them are women and children. Not men. The men remained behind fighting for their country.
Geert Wilders is unequivocal about it: this is not our war. With him, all conservative leaders of Europe. That doesn’t mean to say he supports Putin. Far from it. He’s all-in for accepting Ukrainian refugees, and supporting Ukraine. Just not with weapons.
All of this will almost certainly lead to collapse of society. We’re back in the thirties with only Chamberlains in control. The title said it all: Heim ins Reich was the German slogan to get all Germans wherever they were in the German Reich. Putin is doing exactly the same. What Putin wants it to restore the might of the Russian empire. Not necessarily the USSR, just everyone who speaks or understands Russian is Russian according to him. He wants every part of what once belonged to the Russian or USSR empire back in the fold. Are you Orthodox? Great, he wants that too. Anything remotely Russian is Russian. All of you Heim ins Reich. You don’t have to move, though. Russia is coming to you.
Make no mistake about it: Putin said in so many words he expects the former Warsaw Pact nations to continue behaving as Warsaw Pact nations. He warned Finland not to join NATO, or face the consequences. Finland knows very well they used to be part of the Russian Empire. Given their background, I think their prospective membership of NATO is fairly certain. Even Sweden is worried enough to consider joining NATO.
First we got an unnecessary pandemic. Unnecessary, because the reason why it happened was corporate greed. Dr. Fauci circumvented the rules (no gain of function research at all) by farming it out to a Chinese military laboratory. He knew that. A lab run by a colonel is a military lab. Not a civilian lab. Nobody got punished for it. Even worse, despite knowing the Chinese are behind the pandemic, the winter games were still held as if nothing had happened. The games were a disaster. NBC lost a huge sum of money on it. People weren’t interested in distractions anymore. The same happened with anything woke. It goes broke. The Oscar ceremony? Never before watched by so few people. Football in Qatar? Not there yet, but the same will happen. People are no longer buying (or watching) it.
The Covid crisis fades away into another crisis. At the moment it’s Ukraine. Probably next week it might be World War Three. Putin is already threatening to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. There isn’t much more he can do. This is the ultimate threat possible. All he can do now is set up a tripartite pact with China. Hoping an attack on Taiwan will distract enough attention.
Western governments have been thoroughly socialized and are found wanting. The current crop of leaders is far less capable than Chamberlain, who at least was an honest man. (For a politician, that is.) Very few of them will survive the coming crisis politically. Let’s hope they won’t get hung from lampposts or eaten.
On the bright side, “nature always finds a way,” to quote Jurassic Park. Churchill was elected on the very first day of Fall Gelb, the invasion of Western Europe. The new batch of leaders is already there. We just don’t know who they will be.
Will the EU or NATO survive? Too soon to say. The unification of Europe is going to hell in a handbasket. We desperately need new leadership, and fast! The problem is that new leadership almost certainly won’t be elected. The current crop of failing leaders will do everything it can to hang on to power. Even if that includes hanging on lampposts. I don’t see Rutte resigning or coming to reason. Nor will Biden resign. Certainly not his minders.
I have said often dark times are ahead. This time I see a light at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately, it’s the headlight of the approaching express train.
— H. Numan