Did Mutti Cut a Deal With Lukashenko?

The crisis at the border between Poland and Belarus is not about the illegal migrants who are trying to get into the European Union.

Or rather: that’s what it’s about for the globalists and the NGOs who are funding and facilitating the transport of migrants to Minsk and thence to the border with Poland. That’s what those Soros-backed organizations want, and they’re paying to make it happen.

However, that’s not what’s causing the crisis. For the past couple of months I’ve been studying the data points on recent events, and it seems clear that the crisis is about the nearly-completed Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that runs from Vyborg in Russia to Lubmin in northern Germany.

Alexander Lukashenko has been president of Belarus for twenty-seven years, since the office of the presidency was first established after the country became independent. He can only continue to hold that position with the permission and support of Russian President Vladimir Putin. We may therefore assume that Mr. Lukashenko is doing nothing vis-à-vis the migrants without the approval of Mr. Putin, and perhaps even at the latter’s behest. Belarus has nothing to gain by its hostile and provocative behavior towards Poland, so it seems clear that there are larger issues at stake, ones that bear upon policies emanating from Moscow.

Nord Stream 2 is a project of Gazprom, the Russian state energy company, and has been under construction for almost a decade. From the very beginning it was clear the pipeline was intended to give Russia significantly more leverage over the former Soviet Republics and Warsaw Pact states in Central and Eastern Europe. Russia remains the primary source for natural gas consumed by Western Europe. The current pipeline runs through Ukraine and Poland to Germany, where it is distributed to other countries in Western Europe. As a result, Russia is unable to discipline Ukraine, Poland, and Hungary by cutting off their gas supplies without hurting its more compliant customers further west.

Nord Stream 2 is intended to change that dynamic. Once the spigot under the Baltic is open, Mr. Putin can make Poland and Ukraine freeze whenever he feels like it without causing Germany any difficulties.

Russia successfully induced the Biden administration to waive sanctions against the new pipeline, but those aren’t the only issues that irritate Moscow (for example, the measures put in place by Washington to mitigate the new pipeline’s economic damage to Ukraine and Poland).

Pushing the migrants from Belarus into Poland was simply one weapon in President Putin’s arsenal to bend the European Union to his will. He is an intelligent man, and has no doubt closely observed events in Western Europe since the summer of 2015. He will have realized that the issue of migration is the Achilles’ heel of the European Union, and particularly Germany. It is a weapon against which the West has virtually no defense. As soon as the Puir Wee Bairns appear for their photo ops at the razor-wire fences, the media frenzy commences and the battle is essentially over.

There have been signs in recent days that the EU is ready to capitulate. Several days ago Turkey announced that it would no longer allow citizens of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to fly from its territory to Minsk. The next day the Belarusian state airline, Belavia, announced that the same nationalities would no longer be allowed to fly on its aircraft.

Why were those decisions made in close succession? Why terminate what was obviously a lucrative business for all concerned? The only plausible answer is: orders from above. The “refugees” are cannon fodder for Russia’s hybrid war with the EU, and enough of the culture-enriching troops have been assembled at the border to successfully conclude the operation.

Further data points: Belarus has shut down one of its transmission lines for electricity to Poland, ostensibly for “planned maintenance”. At the same time it experienced technical difficulties with a nuclear reactor, and cut off electricity to another line that supplies Ukraine.

Does anyone think that all these things are coincidences? Or that Alexander Lukashenko is engineering these crises on his own?

Several days ago I remarked to various participants in one of our skype groups that it looked like a deal was about to be cut between the European Union and Russia, with Belarus as the cutout. Vladimir Putin is an extremely shrewd player of political chess, and is always three or four moves ahead of his opponents. That’s how he is able to take Sun Tzu’s advice and win wars without ever unsheathing his sword.

The report below about Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conversation with Alexander Lukashenko provides yet another data point. I’ll go out on a limb here and say that I think a deal is about to be cut. The migrant theater at the border will continue for a few more weeks, which is where all the media’s attention will be focused. Then it will gradually abate, and when the smoke has cleared, somehow Vladimir Putin will be all smiles after achieving his major objectives.

Many thanks to Hellequin GB for translating this article from PolitikStube:

What did she hatch? Merkel is on the phone with Lukashenko

Chancellor Merkel telephoned the Belarusian ruler Lukashenko for almost an hour, discussing how an escalation of the situation at the border could be prevented. It was also about humanitarian support for the migrants stuck in the border area.

What did she hatch? What did she actually discuss with Lukashenko? The naming of a sum of money and the relief flights to Germany? Is she making the same mistake as in 2015? Lukashenko is responsible for the misery on the Polish-Belarusian border; he let these people, who had enough money for the flight and the visa, be flown to Belarus, then drove them to the border with buses and they provoked the illegal crossing of the border to Poland under the supervision of his soldiers. Equally responsible are those looking for supplies who have put themselves in this position by accepting the travel offer for illegal entry into the EU. Lukashenko has brought these economic migrants to the border, and he can pull them away again in exactly the same manner.

If Merkel gives in again and plans or has discussed the admission of thousands of people looking for supplies under the guise of humanity, she will cause further damage to Germany — her parting gift, so to speak, before this unbearable woman finally leaves office.

Welt.de:

Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) spoke to the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko on the phone concerning the increasing needs of several thousand migrants on the EU’s external border between Poland and Belarus. The Belarusian state television reported on Monday evening in the capital Minsk, and Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert also commented accordingly, according to the AFP news agency.

According to Belarusian television, the conversation lasted about 50 minutes. The participants discussed how an escalation of the situation at the border could be prevented. It was also about humanitarian support for the migrants stuck in the border area.

4 thoughts on “Did Mutti Cut a Deal With Lukashenko?

  1. Earlier this Autumn, in September, there were spikes in wholesale gas prices in Europe… In Britain, the price multiplied 7 times in a year, in Poland it went up 9 times… The cause? Less gas being pumped, through pipelines from Russia. British media at the time speculated, that this was Putin signalling his displeasure, at the delay in certifying his Nord Stream 2 pipeline…

    As for the Polish border, illegal immigration had been happening since at least August in a bigger way than ever before, widely seen as Lukashenko punishing his EU neighbours for reacting angrily after a Ryanair aircraft from Greece to Lithuania was ordered to land in Minsk. An important Belarus oppositionist (co-founder of Nexta telegram/twitter channel) was arrested.

    This immigration was proceeding steadily, without major incidents, yet enough to alarm the Germans, who noted hundreds of new arrivals each day. Yet on Sunday 7 November, it was noticed that very large groups of migrants gathered in Minsk, to be taken to the border… The next day, a major assault on the border commenced, and the Belarus-Poland border became a headline internationally.

    Could this have also been deliberate – a shocking event, designed to make Lukashenko so annoying to the EU, that it made Merkel pick up the phone and call him?

    And as of tonight, the migrant air routes to Minsk have been blocked, the camps by the border have been cleared, and even over 400 Iraqis departed Minsk today on a flight back… So perhaps Merkel had agreed something, over the heads of Poland, Lithuania and Belarus oppositionists?

    So for now, it looks like all might become peaceful again. And in any case, winter is approaching with deep snow making the forests impenetrable to most… But after that, comes the spring and summer. And now, the Middle East knows about a country called Belarus… Whatever deal has been struck, can Lukashenko be relied on? Historically, he has been unpredictable and always looking for weaknesses in his enemies… So, if Poland or the EU’s cries about “human rights” become too loud, perhaps he may remember this, his most powerful way of threatening Europe?

    But even if Lukashenko controls his borders, this crisis surely shows that any crazy leader ready to open the floodgates can cause a migration and humanitarian crisis in the most unlikely of places, almost at the click of a finger… Which other governments and politicians might be taking note?

  2. Sorry i have to say this ,but Ned ,you don’t understand European ” politics” at all or most of it..
    You see Europe thru American geopolitical lenses..shape and formed by ” american MSM ” :-)) ..
    Pushed by ” interest parties” narration is deprive in US most important component which is Historical aspect ..That change everything..
    So let me correct you..
    Mutti Cut a Deal with Putin..and forces behind them in 2018..
    ..Mutti also never was an independent politician and Chancellor.
    Lukashenko ? hi is just a pazzi..ordered to play certain role in this political theatre..Everyone in Europe in political spectrum know about it..:-))

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