What About Taiwan?

Our Bangkok correspondent H. Numan takes an eastward field trip to investigate an urgent issue: the status of Taiwan.

What about Taiwan?

by H. Numan

For the last couple of months there has been a lot of attention over Taiwan. Now even more, with a senile president in the White House. The Democrat Party is busy replacing senior military officers with more party-compliant officers. Biden is mounting the red mule of war. The rhetoric is cranking up. Will China invade Taiwan? Lots of comparisons can be found on YouTube. They compare the strength of China with that of Taiwan. It seems like an invasion is imminent. How can Taiwan possibly defend itself? The answer may surprise you: yes, easily!

First, let’s have a look at a possible invasion. In order to invade Taiwan, China needs a US president busy elsewhere, and preferably a blithering idiot. They couldn’t have asked for a better president. Not only is Biden senile, he is — almost certainly — bought and paid for by China. Remember the laptop you don’t hear about? Biden’s son Hunter also visited China, and did naughty things with young Chinese girls. We don’t know that for sure, as the laptop is ‘under investigation’. Given Hunter’s track record, you can safely assume the Chinese taped everything. Supposing daddy doesn’t comply, it can and will be leaked. This year an invasion is out of the question. Why? You can only attack for part of the year, from May until November. For the remainder of the year the weather doesn’t allow for it. Next year, then?

Don’t be fooled; the People’s Republic of China is not going to invade Taiwan. All comparisons I have seen — a lot! — often forget to mention or take into consideration:

Numbers don’t say much. Yes, if Taiwan had a land border with China, they would have been a Chinese province 72 years ago. Only Taiwan is an island, 180 km away from the mainland. That’s six times the width of the English Channel. The Chinese navy is just as experienced and dangerous as the German Kriegsmarine: not enough to successfully invade. The Germans couldn’t do it across a 30 km stretch of sea; the Chinese can’t cross a 180 km stretch of sea.

You have to know that the most dangerous operations any military can perform are airborne drops or naval invasions in hostile well defended territory. That’s why paratroopers and marines by default are the very best units in the military. They have to be.

Unlike what you often read about the Maginot Line, it did exactly what it was build for: the Germans couldn’t cross it. Their solution was to circumvent it, and attack through the Ardennes Forest and the Low Countries. The commander in chief of France was Maurice Gamelin at that time. He was unwittingly helping the Germans by sending his entire reserve forces towards Breda in The Netherlands. They never got there. On the way they had to retreat back to Dunkirk. When the French government told Churchill they didn’t have any reserves anymore, that was the reason. They were taken prisoner or evacuated at Dunkirk.

Now, Taiwan has been fortified massively for 72 years. You don’t hear a lot about it, but Communist China has tried everything possible to take over Taiwan for 72 years. And failed miserably. There is a problem when you apply maximum political pressure for 72 years nonstop. You can’t apply more pressure. All you can do is invade. Which the Chinese won’t do; it simply can’t be done.

The Maginot Line could be circumvented. That’s not possible with Taiwan. The Taiwanese army doesn’t have the very best military equipment in the world. They don’t even need it (though they often and loudly complain about it). All they need is good enough equipment. They have plenty of that. And lots of more than good enough equipment.

Yes, they have the oldest submarines in service, anywhere on the world. Used primarily for training. But the boat itself doesn’t matter much. It still is fiendishly difficult to find a submarine that doesn’t want to be found. What really matters are the torpedoes and fire-control systems. They are not the most modern, but more than enough to do the job.

The Chinese navy is big, but not big enough to cover an invasion fleet over 180 km of treacherous seas. Of course they can use civilian ships to carry most of the invasion force. China has plenty of those. However, the difference between navy and civilian ships is that navy ships are designed not to sink as fast as civilian ships. They have usually stronger hulls, more redundant systems and more watertight compartments.

Even an antediluvian submarine will wreak havoc among civilian ships carrying the invasion force. It can easily do that, because the Chinese navy is not capable of finding it fast enough. They will be occupied by staying afloat themselves. Casualties will be horrendous, even before landings begin.

Likewise, the M60 tank is obsolete. That is, when it would have to meet the most modern Chinese tanks in open battle. When dug in well prepared concrete positions near the beach, it is still formidable. The tank may be obsolete; the gun and the fire-control systems are anything but. Taiwan has many prepared tank positions along its beaches, just in case. An M1 Abrams is nice, but their old M60’s will do nicely along the beaches.

And that brings us to the main reason why China definitely will not invade. The One Child policy. You see, the PRC doesn’t have any kind of state welfare. Children have to take care of their parents when they grow old. That’s hard enough as it is with many children, but close to impossible when you only have one son. That son has not only to take care of his own parents but also the parents of his wife. Supposing he can get one. Boys are considered superior to girls in China. Many girls got aborted right away. Hence, there is a huge surplus of men who cannot possibly find a wife. There are simply far too many men in China right now.

Forget about any notion that the Chinese are yearning for democracy. In all of its very long history China never even tried democracy. Yes, it’s somewhat popular among some progressive students. Almost like socialism is popular at Western universities. For most, it’s a fad. Far less popular than socialism at Western universities, as the Chinese government doesn’t allow it. Activists are arrested immediately, and sentenced to long jail terms.

Democracy is completely absent among the majority of the population. They don’t know what it is. Most Chinese have lived under communism all their lives. So did their parents. Western socialism is working very hard to change history. China has already done that. Almost all Chinese believe the lie that it was the CPC (Communist Party of China) that liberated the country from the Japanese. It didn’t. Mao made damn sure to stay out of the way of the Japanese. Let the capitalists handle that. Once the Japanese were defeated, the communists appeared and defeated the (by now) exhausted Chinese army of Chiang Kai-Shek. We know that, but the common man in China does not know that. He believes it was the party that did it. Generally speaking, most Chinese don’t have a lot of problems with the government. A massive uprising is not going to happen. But… an invasion of Taiwan with up to hundreds of thousands of deaths will definitely matter.

The sons have been raised as one child, and as little princes. Many lack any social skills. They will definitely object to becoming cannon fodder. Their parents will join them, as their one son is the only way to secure them in their old age. The CPC has its power firmly secured, but it would be committing suicide if it were to decide to invade Taiwan.

Another problem is the lack of combat experience. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has none. Last time they tried was during the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979. Do the math. All veterans from that war have retired. Apart from that, China lost that war.

Why does China not participate in UN peacekeeping missions? Because they don’t know how to do it. They fear loosing face. Their equipment is sub-standard (breaks down very easily); the risk of being humiliated by a bunch of lightly armed but highly experienced veteran nomads is far too big.

Last point: how will the world react? Right now, Germany has a frigate on the way to patrol in the South China Sea. So do the French, with more and bigger ships. The new British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth will also make her maiden voyage to the South China Sea. Not because the beaches are lovely and the weather is so nice. That’s in peacetime. Image what those nations would do with a full blown invasion. Plus Australia. And Japan. Taiwan doesn’t even have to defeat an invasion completely. All they have to do is inflict crippling casualties and keep them at bay.

Now have a look at Taiwan. Apart from being heavily fortified, they don’t want to become Chinese communist comrades. Yes, of course there are quislings. But not as many as in Western countries. The Taiwanese know exactly what will happen if China invades. Hence, their intense dislike of communism. Lack of experience is far less of a problem for the Taiwanese military. They have the advantage of defense; all they have to do is make an invasion too costly.

But Taiwan has another trump card: the manufacture of semiconductors. Not that many countries produce semiconductors. Taiwan is one of the biggest producers in the world. The real estate and machinery can be found anywhere, especially within larger cities. It doesn’t produce pollution, so why build such a factory far out in the countryside? Makes a daily commute so much easier.

An invasion will include massive bombardments of Taiwanese infrastructure. It’s very easy to damage or destroy most semiconductor factories. Even if the Chinese were to try to avoid it (they will!), it’s almost inevitable that those factories will be destroyed. Supposing an invasion were to succeed, the Taiwanese will blow those factories up themselves, to deny them to the enemy.

That creates a clear and immanent danger to the USA and every Western nation. Either China takes them over — which would give them a definite advantage close to a monopoly. Or they destroy them. Effectively that’s the same. Either way, the Western military as well as the economy would be devastated without firing a shot. Just about anything you can think of needs semiconductors.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be far worse than Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait. The world can do a couple of days without oil. But we can’t do without semiconductors. If Biden would were to his heels or try to filibuster his way out of it, the US military would immediately react. No matter what Biden or the Democrat Party say. Even if Biden successfully replaces ‘Trump supporters’ with loyal party members. Simply because once Taiwan is taken over by China, all the US military can do is use an Etch-a-Sketch. Anything with semiconductors will be under the control of China.

Of course China will try to take over Taiwan. But not by military action; that would be suicide. In fact, I think it is pretty safe right now for Taiwan to declare real independence. More pressure than applied right now is impossible without declaring war. And that China won’t do.

So don’t be too alarmed when the Democrats are gearing up for war. It’s not in the interest of China to do that. It definitely is in the interest of the Democrat Party. Don’t forget that Biden (= the Democrats) really did steal the election. A war nicely distracts the public. Any war will do, even a world war…

— H. Numan

42 thoughts on “What About Taiwan?

  1. That was a fascinating analysis on Taiwan, and the military advantages available to the West. Thank you.

    • Yeah this was good. I feel confident an invasion of Taiwan is not possible any time soon, so it is outside of my thinking

  2. What an excellent piece of writing. As a man familiar with grand strategy and history of war….This is superb. I doubt I could match it!

  3. The CCP is selling drones to the US military. Writer never considered or mentioned them. There are underwater drones. Game changers. Never say never, rigid thinkers make poor strategists.

  4. More fun facts about Taiwan: It’s 20 times bigger than Okinawa, and that island took the US Army, Navy and Marines 3 months to conquer with a massive loss of life. And our forces were able to anchor right next to Okinawa.

    And Taiwan is mountainous, with 100 peaks of 3,000 meters or higher! And where it’s not mountainous, it’s covered with jungles, canyons, ravines and caves. Think of attacking Switzerland, if Switzerland were an island nation.

    Getting ashore will be hard enough, there are not many suitable landing beaches, but like on Okinawa, that will only be the beginning of the battle.

    On the other hand, ChiCom medium-range missiles will likely preclude the US Navy from resupplying Taiwan. Our ships will be in range of ChiCom missiles 100s of miles before they reach Taiwan. So the battle, if it comes, will pit ChiCom vs. Taiwanese forces. On terrain that massively favors the defense.

    • The Japanese will come to Taiwans aid and will supply troops and equipment. I hate to say it, but the Japanese are going it alone because the US has become an unreliable ally hence are on a ship building spree and weapons systems that are far better than the Chins. As you well know, the Japanese absolutely despise the Chins.

    • Apologies if I sound starstruck, but are you *the real* Matthew Bracken?

      If so …. Ooooooooh! Didn’t know you were here, but not surprised to find you here in this hidden little gem of the Net. I loved your “Red Cliffs of Zerhoun”, and look forward to reading- and buying- more of your books just as soon as I get back to the USA, probably next year, from the wilds of South Korea.

  5. The land of the bat meat stew (LOL!) has it all wrapped up?
    The fat lady is enjoying some Hersheys Kisses and the Big Show is nowhere near starting.

  6. Solid reasoning but I’m not convinced. China is [orifice]! The chicoms can’t be trusted at all. They have no morals, ethics, or concerns even for their own citizens. I wouldn’t be surprised at anything they might do if things go south and the chicoms get desperate. They are also long term planners and would start WWIII if they thought they would be better off 100 years later. Prepare for war. Pray for peace.

  7. However, if they DO invade Taiwan, the current semiconductor shortages will be nothing compared to what will follow!!!

    • That is where good ole Yankee know how and can do attitude will come in handy, they can build a factory and production lines in a matter of days in the US.

        • Wrong! The US, when it puts their minds to it(WW2) can build a plant from scratch in a matter of a month and get production underway the day it is built. Especially if it is a national security issue. No red tape then.

          • Sorry, dude. The US industrial base and education levels have plummeted past the point of no return.
            Any conflict now is strictly a ‘come as you are’ affair.
            There will be no margin for a re-tooling a la WWII.
            The US doesn’t even have strategic reserves of any thing, and critical tooling – M-1, F-22 ect, was ordered sold or destroyed by…Barakbar Satan Obama.
            Ask an american university grad ‘Who was the first man to land on the sun? They will answer: ‘uhnnnn…Lance Armstrong?’
            It’s too late, baby. It’s too late.

          • Kojo, I’m a guy that believes the glass is half full, yes we have many challenges to overcome, but put men of like minded and resolute determination, anything is possible, not impossible.

  8. First, comparing events from 70 years ago to today’s seafaring ability seems a bit of a stretch; especially with the advent of superior weapons systems, 180 km is not so hard to imagine a missile attack to take out those M60 tanks.
    Second, and the main point, as you have already noted, the US president is in China’s pocket; meaning what China dictates, America will do. The Chinese do not have to conquer Taiwan, only gain a foothold and then have America announce Taiwan should sue for peace. End of war, Taiwan has no Calvary coming and will become another Chinese satellite state.

    • Except for one niggly little thing, the Japanese won’t go for it and will go it alone and help Taiwan. The Japanese are building ships left and right ready for war.

      • Point well taken. But will Japan flex its military power with the US going all SJW?

        • The Japanese have prepared for the US going all wishy washy for the last decade, especially after Comrade Obummer took over and spit in the Japanese eye.

  9. Face. You people are completely missing Face. Xi has promised to subjugate Taiwan. He has been made god-emperor for life on his promise to conquer Taiwan. Failure to do so, no matter the cost, and Xi looses Face. China looses Face. When I say that Xi would rather personally cut the throats of every man, woman and child on Earth, rather than loose face, I do not exaggerate.
    Now, watch a couple of days of internal PRC propaganda.
    They have the bugs whipped into a lather for war. Does Xi, and the PRC give a [darn] about casualties, their economy, or semi-conductor shortages? I direct your attention to Chairman Mao’s thoughts on China and nuclear war, paraphrasing for comedic effect, but this is what he said; ‘ We loose 50 million? 100 million? Who cares? Plenty more where those came from.’
    Mainland Chinese have been invaded, conquered, had their [fundaments] enslaved, and brain’s raped out by everybody, for millennia. This is the majority Chinese mindset: they are soulless slaves. They cannot conceive of any other way than abject slavery.
    75 years of communism has not improved that.
    Next: The tide has quite turned against China, hasn’t it? Predatory banking, bogus development and aid that is nothing more than a smokescreen for wholesale infiltration, invasion and theft. The Kung-fu flu. The Chinese themselves – spend some time around the avaricious, clawing overseas mainlanders. It’s enlightening ( :-0 ) China is loosing Face on a global scale.
    Internal pressure: Enough Chinese exist in the PRC who are not soulless bugs, and they are making life interesting. 88% of Chinese do not believe that their food, air and soil is fit for human use, even by Chinese standards. Military consumption of GDP, and the warlords running the show, at crossed purposes to one another, and in opposition to Xi’s aspirations. It is in Xi’s political interests to destroy the private armies of his opponents; and no mistake, the military districts of China are under total control of warlords, and are as nations unto themselves, states within states.
    The time is perfect for Xi. Biden has the US hors d’combat. The EU marxists may send a frigate or two, but they will not resist. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are on their own; and they’re pretty good, so the bugmen won’t have it all their own way.
    Is the Jab part one of a targeted bioweapon? Drop Wuhan2 in November as part of the preparatory bombardment? 120 days to assemble Xi’s forces, it’s perfect, and cheap.
    March is the next window for Taiwan, between Monsoon and Typhoon. The Biden regime is coming apart, and Xi will never have another chance like this.
    Xi also does not have to invade into prepared defenses.
    He can, and will missile spam any fixed target. China does not have to conquer Taiwan, they simply have to destroy it. World Opinion matters not when the World will not, after all these years, recognize Taiwan.
    We don’t want to antagonize China, do we?
    Underestimating your enemy is dangerous, and pathetic fallacy is suicidal. These people do not think anything like even the most venal, sociopathic western politician.
    The situation is pretty volatile, folks.

    • Excellent analysis! The difference between the western mindset and the oriental one is worlds apart.

  10. I disagree with you.

    Only Boys. That is called the youth-bulge. Go back a couple of centuries and this is the reason why Europe conquered the world.
    I know this sounds inhuman, but even if China looses half the possible invasion force they win.
    Then the surviving men have a better chance of getting a wife.

    And to the fleet not big enough and needing to use civilian ships.
    Guided and unguided Missiles / cannon shells / torpedos are a finite resource.
    If China puts enough expendable boats (only manned by one or two men) into the first waves then the Taiwanese Navy / Air Force and Army will have more targets than ammunition.

    So, if the Chinese are callous and inhuman enough they will win.
    And just imagine they would go the way of Saddam Hussein. They take Uighurs and use them as human shields for their ships.

    • ‘…So, if the Chinese are callous and inhuman enough…’
      Hear hear! They certainly are. Have you ever seen the video of the bugbus driver loosing his bat soup, and driving the bus right off a bridge?
      Human life means nothing in most of the world, and particularly in China.
      Always remember that the bugmen threw away 25 million plus expendable human rounds in Korea, 1950-53. Human wave attacks into massed MG, Arty, tank fire and air power. At Gapyeong, the Pats had bugs piled up in the valley hip deep, as far as the eye could see.
      The Bugs celebrate this every year as a great victory.
      Our expectations, our ‘norms’, do not apply to these specimens.
      I am not over-awed by the PLA – their ‘exercises’ kill more bugs than seismic activity, or even than actual combat, and they are indifferent to that in the extreme. But, it’s still one heck of a lot of bugs to squish.
      And let’s not forget that when the bugmen go, the paks, norks, ragheads and pootoloo’s will go off too.
      If we were even one tenth as smart as we think we are, we’d preempt the hive right now, massive first strike; throw everything we’ve got.
      Instead, we’ll do it the hard way.
      Oh well. Short form, it’s just not my problem, anymore.
      However, I will enjoy the kino.

    • The CCP can sent 100s of thousands of expendable “excess male” troops aboard thousands of coastal fishing boats, like a “Dunkirk Invasion.” A rusty fishing boat with 100 soldiers will use up an irreplaceable torpedo, and it will be followed by thousands more boats like it that will make it to Taiwan.

      Losing thousands of troops in the Taiwan Strait will not deter the CCP. As if the CCP cares about their parents! They don’t.

      • Modern Chinese people are not like the Reds of the last few decades.

        The same forces that enable them to do Capitalism with Chinese characteristics subjects them to the same malaise we are . Frankly are in very bad shape demographically .

        If China Insights is to be believed they cite UN stats that note that by 2025 sixty percent of Chinese will be 60 and up. That means they can’t support war time economy if they use a lot of troops and won’t have oil or other resources,

        That also makes the available pool of soldiers much lower than you might think.


        Also young Chinese are not as happy with the State or susceptible to its propaganda as you might guess . All are singletons and even Chinese state propaganda notes that many Chinese are unhappy about economic issues that make it impossible to have a family.

        Also China has several other issues that plague them, food shortages, an incipient nuclear meltdown in Hong Kong, a risk of war with India and the high vulnerability of the three gorges dam among others.

        They can win and maybe take the ruins of Taiwan since the people there can and will blow up the fabs and salt them long before the Chinese can take them but it will not be easy.

        Frankly though the US will be in deep doo if it happens, Best case scenario that fab they are building in Arizona will be up and real; risk will control Woke creep in the services . China get a ruined Taiwan and we get 20 years of depression

    • Re: “If China puts enough expendable boats (only manned by one or two men) into the first waves then the Taiwanese Navy / Air Force and Army will have more targets than ammunition. So, if the Chinese are callous and inhuman enough they will win.”

      Well-stated. Communist regimes are not answerable to their respective populations for catastrophic losses in wartime, the way western political leaders must be to their respective populations.

      During WWII, Stalin’s USSR cleared minefields by marching men through them. They were often penal battalion men or Siberians, neither of whom the ordinary Russians cared about enough to do anything to stop the practice.

      In Korea (1950-1953), Mao’s armies attacked in human waves against positions fortified by crew-served weapons such as machine-guns, mortars, artillery, and land mines covered in acres of barbed wire. Not to mention napalm & HE dropped by U.S. air assets. The artillery, tanks and recoilless rifles fired cluster (grape-shot) for anti-personnel effectiveness…. it didn’t matter.

      The Chinese kept coming until the attack was broken or their manpower was depleted. If they didn’t press forward the attack, their own political commissars and secret police would shoot them.

      The Chinese general staff has been on record for decades, since the 1950s, as being willing to absorb huge losses as the price of attaining victory on the battlefield.

      In analyzing Chinese intentions and motives, westerners must remember that their reckoning of the value of the individual human life is much different than our own.

      That, and the ruthlessness and amorality of the Communist Party leadership in Beijing, are the wildcards in this scenario. Logic and common would seem to dictate the foolhardiness of an amphibious assault & invasion against Taiwan, such that no sane person would consider so potentially costly an operation…. but who ever said anything about them being sane?

  11. The axis of empires like China and Iran, and maybe Russia, can play at bait-and-switch in order to distract the media. Taiwan’s one signed-up ally is just over the Arabian Gulf, in Somaliland, across the water from Yemen, a hotspot for Iran which likes to generate horrible messes wherever they can. Maybe more of a threat to the Suez Canal than the South China Sea, but what if fast missile boat technology were joined with Chinese submarines?
    A thousand cuts may hurt as well as bleed. China may help the Iranians ‘invest’ in ‘infrastructure’ in the African continent. An Iranian nuclear program may be much closer to the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, or Norway than the China Seas. Ukraine might even be a pawn in the global chess.
    Let us hope that Taiwan is strong-willed and vigilant.

  12. Wonder if the world’s largest producer of semi conductors has figured out how to build a nuclear weapon? Or seven to ten of them. Would not need an ICBM. How does that affect the invasion calculus?

    • Getting their hands on nuclear material would be problematic. Japan otoh, has plenty of nuclear material, engineering knowledge, and manufacturing ability that they could be a nuclear power in a matter of months if they so desired. I doubt their pacifism would prevent them from becoming a nuclear power if they felt that the CCP was serious about invading Taiwan.

  13. Interesting analysis, but I politely disagree. The Chinese think very, very, VERY long-term. They may decide it’s worth the international opprobrium, the loss of semiconductor production, and the societal pain to aging parents if, in the long term, China is again unified. In the long sweep of history, all these issues will be seen as necessary speed bumps, well worth the short term pain.

    • Sorry, you’re wrong. China APPEARS to be long thinking, but the CPC only tries to solve problems of today. The One Child policy is an example.
      That was a response to Mao’s command: “breed like the bunnies, I need cannon fodder.” They dropped it in 2015, when the results became devastating. In 2018, they adopted a 2 child policy. As that doesn’t work, they have now a 3 child policy. Very soon compulsory. That’s walking from one disaster to the next.

  14. It is written in the Book of Revelation that the Euphrates River is dried up so that the armies of the Kings of the East can march towards the Persian and Arabian territories to conquer them and the Antichrist who is reigning in Jerusalem. Good strategy would then call for a missle attack on Taiwan so there is nothing to bite at China’s rear as they march westward to conquer the world.
    My best guess but stay tuned, film at 11:00.
    And now a word from our sponsor.

  15. It’s the singular 5 nanometer chips [smallest part 50 Angstoms-@50 atoms] etched by ultraviolet lenses made in the Netherlands and the world’s brains rushing to Taiwan to extend Moore’s law and the ascension to world dominance in the manufacture of these computer neuron equivalents, used by everyone….this is what China is not going to tolerate, a leadership in computer IQ. Would China tolerate a genome edit in Taiwan’s people that doubled their collective IQ ? Not going to happen.

    The only way for China to win and not lose its market and disctatorship and economic power in the world is through bioweapons. Hence…duh…

  16. Yes biological warfare wins the war and doesnt destroy the prize. TradiTional warfare destroys the prize. That’s why they are working on microwave weapons trialled against India. They can kill us all, drag out the bodies and take over our homes, cars and lives. I have suggested that here for Australia as they want our country and lifestyle.

  17. @ Sara

    Re: “Yes biological warfare wins the war and doesnt destroy the prize. TradiTional warfare destroys the prize. That’s why they are working on microwave weapons trialled against India. They can kill us all, drag out the bodies and take over our homes, cars and lives.”

    Yes, that tracks, and for the same reasons, so does the possible use of electromagnetic pulse weapons. EMP would be effective, to be sure, but the problem there is that an atomic blast high in the atmosphere (to trigger the pulse) would still be construed as an attack using nukes.

    The Chinese are famously good poker players thanks to their inscrutability – but are they really willing to double down on stakes that high? Only time will tell…..

  18. I’m afraid the author fails to consider the degree of cynicism in Communists, the Chinese kind especially since they already have a staggering track record to show for: They know full well that millions of their men are superfluous and a burden, doesn’t matter that they created this imbalance themselves. If they come to the conclusion that throwing them in the shredder will achieve something, like winning a war, they will do it. The great Mao already showed how this works. The great unknown for the CPC is how the outside world will react. Will they unite and clobber them like they ganged up on Germany, or are they too decadent, coward and lazy (that’s how many in Asia see us nowadays) to do anything? They can’t know for sure because we don’t know that for ourselves and aren’t giving any clear signals. The day they come to an assessment that they can get away with it, they WILL attack.

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