Swedish Press Conference on COVID-19

The following video contains excerpts from a press conference in Sweden about data errors in the official projections used concerning the Wuhan Coronavirus. The man answering the questions is Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist for Sweden.

What I found interesting in this clip is that Dr. Tegnell is refreshingly straightforward. I must be accustomed to American press conferences, where official spokescreatures usually drown the audience in doubletalk, spin, obfuscation, misdirection, and bafflegab.

Many thanks to Kronans Martell (Ullis News) for the translation, and to Vlad Tepes and RAIR Foundation for the subtitling:

Video transcript:

16:59   Questions.
17:05   Sweden Radio journalist: I have a question for the Public Health Agency,
17:11   regarding the model used to show the spread in Stockholm,
17:17   which was presented yesterday and was withdrawn this morning “due to serious faults.”
17:23   What are these serious faults? And, does that also indicate that the peak
17:28   which was believed to have already been reached on April 15 isn’t correct?
17:33   We are working on it, and we will release an updated version tomorrow.
17:39   But to say it briefly without getting very technical: Such models are difficult.
17:45   We had a wrong variable from the beginning and the number of cases weren’t updated in that model.
17:54   That variable, in its turn, caused an increase in another variable
17:59   to reach the benchmark, the 2.5% which was calculated.
18:04   Therefore, the variable was very high.
18:07   That variable was the difference between the discovered
18:10   and the undiscovered cases. That’s why it was very high.
18:13   Many on our side have read it and we should have had noticed it.
18:17   We are happy that someone has detected it and,
18:20   we were able to stop it in time before it was spread widely!
18:23   But it doesn’t cause changes in the other parts, such as the peak;
18:26   it will stay approximately at the same level. But we will get back to this tomorrow.
18:29   We will read it again, and will get back tomorrow.
18:33   The model was off for a period of time. Aren’t you worried
18:36   that it would somehow harm your credibility?
18:39   I hope not. With very good help from outside,
18:43   the mistake was swiftly detected and can be corrected.
18:48   The basic assessments of the model still stand and are valid.
18:57   TV4 journalist: I would like to ask a similar question,
19:03   concerning the report you published yesterday, and it contained mistakes!
19:09   What is in that model that still stands and valid? Was the peak on April 15 or not?
19:14   It will reach there on the day. The peak varies by a few or some days apart. Not longer.
19:23   What about the assessment that two-thirds of Stockholm’s residents
19:27   would be infected by the beginning of May. Is that still correct?
19:31   Yes, it is approximately at the same level. —So what was the mistake?
19:35   The mistake was about the compensation effect generated in the model, which proposed that:
19:42   “Behind every case we found there are one thousand more cases in the community.”
19:46   That was wrong and we are correcting it.
24:20   I would like to ask about the peak reached “some day” “between” April 15th and 18th.
24:29   Dr. Per Follin, who is an Infectious Disease Control doctor,
24:34   has experienced that cases are increasing in Stockholm County.
24:40   How can your view be very different?
24:44   I don’t know if he says that it’s increasing, but rather that we should keep it consistent.
24:48   The peak we are talking about is the spread of the disease in respect to when it is the largest.
24:53   It takes about a week until you get sick, and several more days
24:57   to require medical care in hospitals, if needed.
25:01   So it takes roughly ten days for the peak to reach
25:05   the medical care system. We haven’t even come that far yet.
25:09   What he experiences is real in that sense. It’s currently a flattened curve.
25:15   But we understand the concern in Stockholm, because it approaches the limit of capacity.
25:21   We sincerely want to go through it. So that is important,
25:25   especially in Stockholm, to stay home and limit social contacts.
25:30   We have encountered this for a long time. I understand the concern
25:35   when we come close to something which can be an improvement.
25:40   Emanuel Karlsten is with us online.
25:45   I am wondering about the graphic of the number of the COVID-19 deaths.
25:54   It is a huge time lag! What you are showing here today is from March,
25:58   which makes the data three weeks old.
26:04   But you, Anders Tegnell, still stated that
26:08   “We have reached the plateau [flattening the curve].”
26:13   Is it reasonable to conclude that it is actually not a plateau,
26:16   but it is more accurately a time lag?
26:19   How are we to understand it? And, how would that affect the model?
26:25   We are not using the number of deaths in the model.
26:29   Because they are uncertain in many senses, such a case time lag.
26:33   The model is built comprehensively on the number of diagnosed cases. It doesn’t affect it.
26:39   I have said numerous times that the number of deaths is significant in many senses,
26:43   but not in regard to the model’s composition! The lag is very large.
26:48   It takes a quite long time between infection and decease. It is not a good tool to control.
26:55   We have apparently run a quality match against the number of registered deaths.
27:04   And we have found a number of cases where they passed away long after they were infected.
27:11   For some reason, they weren’t detected in the medical care system, but we are currently
27:16   running a quality control process, and we can detect them.
27:21   We are doing it approximately once a week and we sometimes find cases which date back a ways.
27:27   When we reach out now and ask about deaths because of COVID-19,
27:31   we get unusual answers which we weren’t getting earlier.
27:35   It could possibly be because of the Easter Holidays. So the staff had a lot to do,
27:39   and perhaps they didn’t have time to register the death cases.
27:44   Is it your view that you are currently on a flattened curve? How to assess it?
27:52   It has spread out across so many days and doesn’t affect what the curve looks like.
28:00   It’s apparent specifics in the report included mistakes, and such criticisms were raised
28:06   against it … but not against the earlier models, because
28:12   you aren’t transparent in regard to which models you are using to reach such conclusions.
28:16   Are you going to be more transparent in the future in regard to
28:19   which mathematical models you are using to conclude your results?
28:22   We have always been transparent.
28:25   And the model will be published and be available for everybody.
28:29   Everybody can download the data from our website.
28:32   So I don’t know in which part we aren’t transparent.

5 thoughts on “Swedish Press Conference on COVID-19

  1. Sweden is so ultra-antagonistic to the West in general, and so deranged in their thinking by radical feminism, that they’re no longer reliable on issues of science and public health. We distrust them now in the same way Nazi’s or Politburo Marxists are distrusted.

  2. At least Sweden’s window is one that could use a bit of Windex. Our windows have been painted over.

  3. I can confirm!!!
    Sweden is a femiNazi pc marxist cesspit country!

    Swedes are known as BATTERY HENS,

    Sweden is a traitorous nation of fools and clowns, in ww2 the claimed neutrality but were dealing trade with hitler for iron ore and other supplies,
    And money laundering for nazis.

    Simular to the swiss!
    Another very dodgy nation, is switzerland, this nation is just full of more liars, clowns, and hypocrites. In history of ww2, youll find out about there activitys.

  4. “Bafflegab.” That’s a new one to me although it characterises leftist “communication” perfectly.

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