Our Dutch correspondent H. Numan has the latest on the convoluted political situation in his homeland.
The coming elections
by H. Numan
In the UK the Labour party lost massively. Their biggest loss in nearly a century. In America the Democrat party is going to lose even more. The signs are all there. The most important candidate is Bernie Sanders who isn’t even fit to sit in a clown car. Much less to drive it. The man has absolutely no authority whatsoever. I’ve seen clips where his radical supporters grab the microphone out of his hands and totally humiliate themselves. With comrade clown standing next to it. Seething, and not able to do a darn thing about it.
Don’t be mistaken: The other clowns are almost as bad as he is. That’s pretty good news, I think. Even Bloomberg isn’t going anywhere. He can’t help it, he simply has the wrong credentials. Just like a child abuser has to live with his past, so must he. He was not only a strict Republican, he’s also a billionaire. Apart from the fact that he is simply bribing his way to nomination, and gloating that he can do it. Voting fraud is now completely legal in at least California. You can collect all the ballots in a retirement home or a town, fill them in as desired and present them as valid votes.
Even so, Trump is going to win. He doesn’t have to do a thing himself. The clowns do all the hard work for him. I hope the Milwaukee police department is planning for some huge riots. Antifa is not going to accept anyone else but comrade Sanders. They’re going to be very angry, as Sanders will not be elected.
Now, in Holland we’re also heading for elections. Officially we aren’t. Elections are due in March of 2021. That’s a full year in the future. The government is basically finished governing. Their goals have been achieved, or need a different coalition. I have no idea what will cause the resignation of the cabinet, but all parties are gearing up in election mode. The conservatives (VVD) and Christian Democrats (CDA) especially are making very bold statements about fewer migrants, stronger borders and — don’t laugh — less money to the EU. That’s a sure sign elections are coming.
It’ll be a very interesting election. In the recent past, first the Christian Democrats got trashed, followed by the labor party PvdA. In both cases after a long period of governing and a string of broken promises. This election will be the same, only now it’s the VVD’s turn to get trashed. Like their Christian and Labor compatriots earlier, the VVD has governed for a very long time, nearly 12 years continuously. The broken promises of Mark Rutte are legendary. As before people had high hopes during the first Rutte cabinet, which over time lessened. Currently the government is a minority government. The cabinet had a one-seat majority at the start in parliament. They lost that seat last year. In the senate it’s already a minority cabinet.
We’ve seen a massive shift to the left in nearly all parties. We used to have three large parties: a big conservative party (VVD), an even larger center party of Christian Democrats, and a large labor party. All of them moved far to the left. They want to woo young, hip and progressive voters. Nothing wrong with that, but there is a price to pay. There are lots of young people who are not progressive. Most of the not-so-young voters are anything but progressive. The price the formerly big parties have to pay is far fewer voters. They all shrank from their position of the big three to middle of the road. Or in case of the PvdA: that’s now a small party. In Dutch politics anything under 10 seats is small fry, 10-25 is middle of the road and anything above is a big party.
Progressive parties want to create a united left front. That won’t fly, because the PvdA party knows very well that will cost their party whatever seats they have left. Of course GL (former communists) and the SP (former Maoists) are in favor. They would gain the seats lost by the PvdA. Two birds with one stone!
That big gap on the right is being filled by two parties: The PVV party and the new Forum for Democracy (FvD). The PVV currently holds 19 seats, and FvD 2. It’s highly likely both will gain a lot in the coming elections. I expect both to grow to about 30 seats each. However, that is not enough for a majority. They will need 76 seats. That’ll be a problem as both the PVV and FvD parties are boycotted by the others.
But we’re talking politics here, where eels are kept in tanks of WD-40. I think the VVD will play ball. They have in the past. The CDA party is chomping at the bit to get back in government. The progressive wing is very strong, but I think the conservative wing might prevail. So there is a fair to good chance for a truly conservative government after elections.
Will Wilders become prime minister? Far too early to say. We have several serious crises going on right now. All of them with huge implications for the near future. First of all the coronavirus crisis. Europe doesn’t manufacture much anymore. That’s being done in China. The factories there are closed for the moment. The last ships were loaded in January. It’ll take 2-3 months to get to Europe (or 1-2 months to America). After that, it’s no more goods. That will be a huge economic crisis.
Next, Erdogan just opened the floodgates of Hell (Turkey) and released the Kraken (refugees). As I always have said: bribery and blackmail do not work. How will the EU react? No idea, but I expect by offering more money or something Erdogan wants badly. That EU is now considering inviting the last and most hopeless countries to become members: Macedonia and Albania. That’s two crises for the price of one. Three, sort of, as the Greek navy is moving towards Turkish waters right now.
It’s nice to see that a very progressive newspaper, the Volkskrant, now openly admits Wilders was right after all. It doesn’t mean anything at all, but it’s nice to see anyway. Too early to say whether it’s a peace offering or a eulogy. Knowing the Volkskrant, I think the latter.
As to when elections will be called, I have absolutely no idea. That could be any day or in December. All the parties are gearing up for elections, so something definitely is stirring in the backrooms of The Hague.
— H. Numan
Key to Dutch parties:
|FvD||Forum for Democracy|
|Forum voor Democratie|
|Conservative, populist, Euroskeptic
|VVD||People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy|
|Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie|
|Partij van de Arbeid|
|PVV||Party for Freedom|
|Partij voor de Vrijheid|
|Classical liberal, Islam-critical
|Left-wing populists, former Maoists, to the left of communists
|CDA||Christian Democratic Appeal|
|Christian democrats, center-right
|Politieke Partij Democraten 66|
|Centrist social liberals
|Christian Democrats, left-wing, only “conservative” in being ostensibly religious
|Environmentalism plus hard left
|SGP||Reformed Political Party|
|Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij|
|Christian right, advocates a Christian theocracy
|PvdD||Party for Animals|
|Partij voor de Dieren|
|For The Netherlands|
|Classical liberal party
|PPNL||Pirate Party of the Netherlands|
|Anti-copyright, transparent governance