Real Crime, Fake News on German Crime Statistics

The following video features a press conference held by German Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière in which he summarizes the country’s crime statistics for 2016. Mr. de Maizière does his best to spin the facts in such a way that the “refugees” don’t end up looking quite so criminal, but he can’t completely hide the reality of the numbers. To mitigate all those embarrassing un-PC statistics, he makes a point of emphasizing politically motivated right-wing crime as an important component of the report.

Many thanks to Egri Nök for the translation, and to Vlad Tepes for the subtitling:

Below is an essay from Vera Lengsfeld’s website that discusses Mr. de Maizière’s press conference and his statistics. Many thanks to Nash Montana for the translation:

Fake News at the Presentation of Crime Stats?

Recently Interior Minister de Maizière presented Germany’s crime statistics for 2016, and he found himself unable to avoid admitting a few unpleasant facts. Of an allegedly almost identical total of criminal acts, wherein illegal immigration remarkably was not mentioned, the number of violent crimes has risen drastically. 18 attempted homicides committed by rightwing motivated persons — for instance when a migrant was pushed on train tracks. Homicide and manslaughter saw an increase of 14.3 percent; rape and sexual coercion saw a surge of 12.8 percent.

De Maizière tried to play down the issue that most of the migrants are young men who are more prone to commit crimes. Just why these young men were brought into the country the Minister didn’t explain, of course. Instead he spoke of a “coarsening” of society, without uttering a single word about the source or the reason for this coarsening. That, one had to figure out himself by listening between the lines. Mind you, though, it was acknowledged that there is a problem with the criminality of migrants. However, we should relax, since only 1% of the migrants are so-called ‘intensive offenders’ who commit 40% of all migrant crime.

Leftist extremist crime also had to be acknowledged, especially since a rise in crime against politicians is to be expected during election year. However not a word was uttered that the large majority of these crimes against politicians targeted members of the AfD.

According to information from de Maizière, there was a rise in right-wing extremist crime. They are now measuring up equally to left-wing extremist crime. One would liked to learn more concrete details about this, for instance if those swastika graffiti that were painted by leftwing extremists or by migrants, were simply allocated to right-wing extremist criminal activities. Such as in Brandenburg where unexplained criminal activities are simply allocated into the right-wing extremism statistics.

In order to illustrate the worrisome development of rightwing extremism, the Minister named 18 allegedly right-wing oriented attempted homicides, for instance as already mentioned, when a migrant was pushed onto the train tracks.

At this point I can only ask myself if I might have missed some crucial information. I’ve never heard of migrants who were “pushed onto train rails”. Even a search on Google brought up nothing.

It may be due to my lack of skills that I came up with only two results: At a Berlin subway station unknown subjects pushed a man onto the rails. But they were described as “Arab-looking”. And in Dresden two asylum seekers pushed a man onto rails and then kept him down by kicking him despite the incoming train. But the public prosecutor did not investigate attempted homicide in this case, merely bodily injury and interference with public transportation.

Interesting in this context as well is the blocking practice of our quality media. One of our readers, J.B., wanted to comment on de Maizière and the crime statistics at Die Welt. The comment wasn’t approved. Here’s the comment:

“So, Herr Minister of the Interior. I have taken it upon myself to work out the crime statistics numbers since 2010. The result:

2010: 5.933M
2011: 5.990M (first light increase after receding stats in the past few years)
2012: 5.997M
2013: 5.961M
2014: 6.082M
2015: 6.330M
2016: 6.372M

German Suspects:
2010: 1.680M
2011: 1.628M
2012: 1.591M
2013: 1.555M
2014: 1.531M
2015: 1.456M
2016: 1.405M

Non-German Suspects:
2010: 0.471M
2011: 0.484M
2012: 0.502M
2013: 0.538M
2014: 0.492M (weird jump downwards…)
2015: 0.555M
2016: 0.616M

Under it migrants:
2014: 0.059M
2015: 0.114M
2016: 0.174M

In other words, for 2016:

German citizens: 19 Suspects per thousand
Migrants: circa 174 Suspects per thousand

How, therefore, should one assess the statements by the Minister of the Interior, when he issues a blanket denunciation of the entire citizenry of Germany? Fake news? Hate speech?

Video transcript:

00:00   Together with my colleague, the Interior Minister of Saxony,
00:04   we will today, by tradition, present to you the figures from the police crime statistics
00:09   for the year 2016, and also the numbers of politically motivated crimes.
00:17   The number of crimes committed in Germany
00:20   has essentially remained constant in Germany over the past year.
00:25   It did not rise — in spite of markedly more inhabitants.
00:30   That is pleasing. It is also pleasing
00:33   that the crime clearance rate is the highest in five years.
00:39   But the state of criminality in Germany shows
00:42   more than before, much light — and much shadow.
00:48   Fewer burglaries, fewer shop thefts, less fraud.
00:54   But increasing numbers of violent offenses of all kinds.
00:57   With the exception of a decrease in robbery.
01:01   And the statistics also show that the
01:04   level of crime is highly different in the different Federal States.
01:10   Ladies and gentlemen — the barbarization of our society and the consequences of it is alarming.
01:16   We have been observing this for a while.
01:19   Violent crime in Germany was falling, until 2015.
01:24   Then, it rose for the first time, even before the peak of the refugee situation.
01:30   The barbarization not only shows in speech —
01:34   for example on the Internet, in a lack of respect,
01:37   in the unceremonious way some treat their fellows;
01:41   it also shows in crime. Everywhere.
01:45   In everyday crime, in politically motivated crime —
01:50   from the left, from the right, by foreigners.
01:53   It must concern us all that violent crime has risen markedly.
01:59   Especially the cases of dangerous and grievous bodily harm have risen.
02:05   In this area, we have added new criminal offenses to the law governing sexual offenses,
02:11   as the numbers of rapes and sexual assaults have increased, too.
02:17   Sexual assaults by groups can now be punished more appropriately than used to be the case.
02:23   This is a consequence of Silvester Night in Cologne.
02:28   The increase in numbers also has to do with developments in and after Cologne.
02:35   How do we want to live together in Germany?
02:38   Our Basic Law and our laws set the framework for that, and it is non-negotiable.
02:44   Besides that, and just as non-negotiable,
02:48   there are values and unwritten norms that determine our life together.
02:52   These are of outstanding importance, particularly in difficult times.
02:59   And right here, something in our country has begun to slide.
03:03   This development cannot be compensated for
03:07   by politics, the judiciary, and the security authorities.
03:12   All parts of society are asked to
03:15   firmly oppose the increasing barbarization, and every form of hate and violence,
03:21   on our streets as well as on the Internet.
03:24   Unfortunately, we also have to lament frequent so-called “resistance offenses”,
03:29   massive attacks on police officers, which have also shown an increase,
03:33   but by now even on rescue teams and paramedics.
03:37   This is also reflected in the increase of violent crime.
03:41   Ladies and gentlemen, I’d like the increase in violent crime in the last year to be a wake-up call.
03:46   A wake-up call to us all, to re-establish more respect, moderation,
03:50   and nonviolence, in our language and in our actions,
03:57   and not to leave the problem only to police and the judiciary.
04:03   In the years 2015 and 2016, altogether,
04:08   more than one million people migrated into Germany as fleeing persons.
04:13   Added to that are migrants from Europe and from third [i.e. non-EU] countries.
04:17   It follows inevitably that a higher number of people means higher crime numbers.
04:25   However, the crime numbers in Germany have not risen,
04:30   In spite of more inhabitants, they have remained constant.
04:34   This is good news, at first glance.
04:37   But it is unpleasant, that migrants —
04:41   you will find a definition of that [term] in the report as mainly the fleeing persons —
04:47   that crime committed by migrants has disproportionately increased in the past year.
04:53   There is no sugarcoating that.
04:57   This unfortunately applies to almost every single category of crime.
05:01   And unfortunately, as the numbers reveal, the marked increase in violent crime
05:06   is primarily caused by an increase in the violent crimes committed by migrants.
05:10   In violent crime, we see an increase of one percent by Germans,
05:14   but an increase of 90 percent more migrant suspects in the year 2016.
05:20   However, the following is also true:
05:23   80% of the migrants who were victims of a violent crime
05:27   were victim of violence by another migrant.
05:31   This does not make it any better, but is part of the complete picture.
05:37   One possible explanation for this striking perpetrator-victim constellation
05:41   may lie in cramped housing conditions,
05:45   which we still had in wide areas last year.
05:51   When violent crimes were committed against migrants on streets and in public squares,
05:54   the proportion was markedly lower, only 65 percent.
05:59   Additionally the residential, ethnic and religious conflicts from the home countries
06:04   clash in Germany. Fuel for conflict, which is easily ignited.
06:09   Another possible explanation, which does not justify the increase in crime in any way,
06:13   is age and sex of the offenders.
06:17   The crime rate of 18- to 21-year-old men
06:22   is, also among Germans, four times as high as in the general population.
06:27   As most of the migrants are young men, it is not surprising from a criminological viewpoint
06:31   that their criminality is comparably high.
06:35   And — this is a particularly important finding —
06:39   often, it is a few fleeing persons, and from certain countries,
06:44   who often commit several crimes,
06:47   and thus bring other, blameless fleeing persons into discredit.
06:51   A not insignificant part of the increase therefore
06:55   can be attributed to intensive multiple offenders
06:59   among the refugees, and furthermore, from certain countries.
07:03   It is also certain — the numbers show this — that those who are truly in need of protection,
07:08   those whom our citizens want to protect as the true refugees,
07:14   such as for example Syrians, are under-represented
07:18   among criminal migrants; notably less criminal.
07:22   This group in particular commits comparatively few offenses.
07:27   Ladies and gentlemen, now briefly on to the numbers of politically motivated crimes.
07:32   We are looking at less than one percent of total criminal activity.
07:37   I wish to say that in advance for classification.
07:41   Nevertheless, it is important to record these crimes separately.
07:45   These crimes have enormous significance for coexistence in Germany.
07:50   Crimes motivated by hate, targeting minorities,
07:54   meant to overrule the constitution.
07:58   I see in this type of crime, despite the relatively small significance in terms of numbers,
08:04   a seismograph, a barometer of public opinion.
08:10   The past year shows the following development:
08:14   The number of politically motivated crimes in 2016
08:19   has, again, peaked, for the fourth time. This is unacceptable.
08:24   It is congruent with the rise in violent crime other than politically motivated crime.
08:31   This is particularly due to the notable increase of politically motivated
08:34   so-called “foreigner criminality” of more than 60 percent.
08:38   This area records, for example, crimes in the name of foreign extremist organizations,
08:43   such as the so-called Islamic State, the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party], or the Tamil Tigers.
08:50   The terrible pictures of the attack of December 19 on the Breitscheidplatz
08:54   and the other terror attacks showed us in a cruel way:
08:58   Germany is in the declared target range of terrorist organizations.
09:03   Besides, Germany is, and has been for a long time,
09:07   a mirror of internal Turkish conflicts.
09:10   Federal and state security authorities are aware of that.
09:13   In 2016, just the crimes related to the Turkey-PKK [conflict]
09:18   have almost doubled.
09:22   Right-wing motivated violence, too, has
09:25   markedly increased by 14.3 percent.
09:29   The numbers now are at about the same high level as left-wing violence,
09:33   which decreased over the past year.
09:36   The pleasing fact of the decrease in left-winged violence, however,
09:40   can be attributed to the fact that there were barely any large-scale events,
09:44   such as the opening of the European Central Bank, or the G7 summit,
09:49   that could be used as alleged justifications for violence
09:52   and destruction by the left scene.
09:56   This will presumably change this year, with three state elections,
10:01   and the G20 summit.
10:05   In particular the great brutality and recklessness with which it proceeds is what shocks.
10:10   In several cases, occupied asylum seeker accommodations were torched with Molotov cocktails.
10:18   In two cases, foreigners were pushed onto railway tracks.
10:22   It is cases like these that are behind the
10:25   18 attempts of right-wing motivated homicide in the statistics.
10:29   Just by chance no person was killed.
10:33   A focus of the attacks from right was, again, asylum seekers and their accommodations.
10:38   But the numbers are finally decreasing.
10:42   Since the peak in January 2016 with 191 incidents,
10:46   the attacks on refugee accommodations have markedly decreased.
10:50   In December, 37 incidents were reported, and the first numbers of the year 2017
10:56   confirm this trend: we are approaching the level of 2014,
11:00   when attacks on refugee accommodations were reported for the first time.
11:04   But the decrease is not nearly proportionate to the decrease in asylum seeker accommodations.
11:10   So there is no reason to relax,
11:13   and no reason not to be active anymore.
11:18   We will begin with the first question by our colleague Lohse.
11:21   In the meantime, I will take further requests for questions.
11:28   I have got two quick questions. One: the chosen term “migrants”,
11:33   insofar as I have understood this, does not include the accepted asylum seekers.
11:41   The question: will the term remain? And why was it chosen?
11:44   Why the term “migrants” at all, which also, for example,
11:48   applies to Canadian engineers who came in under the Residence Act.
11:52   That was the first question, and the second question —
11:55   I did not have the opportunity to read up on it; how many successfully accomplished homicides
11:58   are in the “migrant” category, and where
12:01   do the 12 homicides by Mr. Amri appear in these figures, or do they appear at all?
12:09   Mr. Lohse, one may discuss whether the term “migrants”
12:15   is chosen adequately.
12:18   It’s the way the experts have chosen it; it is defined in the text,
12:22   and it does not refer to migrants from the EU,
12:26   and it does not refer to migrants from third [non-EU] countries,
12:30   but to the refugees, regardless of their residence status,
12:35   but also illegals who are here. I have said this time and again:
12:38   A portion of the Moroccans come here, stay illegally, and
12:42   and only when they become an offender do they file an asylum application.
12:47   It has been defined the way it is particularly
12:51   because the public discussion is about that:
12:56   How is our level of crime developing in particular concerning this group of people?
13:01   But that does not mean the others are overlooked. You will find
13:05   the category “non-German suspects” in your documents.
13:10   Those are all. And the group of “migrants” as described by me is in there.
13:16   So that we can get a complete view.
13:19   I would also like to point out that the BKA (Federal Criminal Police Office)
13:24   today released the report which is usually given every quarterly period,
13:28   concerning criminality and migration 2016, the “Lagebild”.
13:35   This, too, is at your disposal. Regarding your second question.
13:42   The criminal statistics by the police, now this becomes a bit technical,
13:45   are the so-called “outcome statistics”; this means
13:48   they are recorded when the police have
13:52   closed their investigations, and are handing them over.
13:55   What this means for the homicides is, that for example the twelve
13:59   people murdered on Breitscheidplatz are not yet included here,
14:04   but the more than 200 people killed in the German Wings plane crash
14:10   are included in the 2016 statistics, even if the crash was in 2015.

20 thoughts on “Real Crime, Fake News on German Crime Statistics

  1. This man, look at his evil ugly nazi traitor face!

    He is ex stasi operative of east german ddr, how can this person be allowed to continue communist doctrine against the german peoples without let or hindrance??

    How mAny innocent germans has this man signed papers to have locked away for speaking the truth??

    In few days time marine le pen will become president of france, and this man de maziere will at that moment will need a change of underwear, as he begins to realise its a step now closer that european citizens and germany are going to turn into a mob and they going to come after this man, hunt him down, and take him away, just like he has done to many many innocent germans who speak the truth and love there country.

    Yes, be in fear mr de maziere, you stasi nazi traitor of germany, be in fear!!

    For your time is up, and some brave germans are looking to get hold of you and the others in your nazi stasi gang.

    Eu is about to come crashing down, along with euro and deutsch bank.

    Cant wait.

    • sorry, but wrong! You mean a cousin ( Lothar) by the same name.
      Th.d.M. is son of a west german 4 star general who was inspector chief of all forces when I served in the sixties.

  2. I believe the likes of Germany and Sweden are literally at a point in their history where they do not have any real option but to lie about migrant crime. It will be almost certain that if they really told the horrific truth about migrant crime, many citizens will finally rise up and take matters into their own hands. These Governments are completely responsible for letting things get to this disastrous point. Just like in the U.K., had the Government come down hard and heavy on any hate speech and crimes the “new comers” were allowed to get away with for decades, we would not be in this situation. They were literally given free reign by our Government, and suffered zero consequences simply because of the abject fear of being labelled racists. One only has to look at what happened in Rotherham and Oxford, wherein many young victims of violent rapes by Pakistani men were just shooed out of the police station. They can only keep telling the lies for so long.

    • “had the Government come down hard and heavy on any hate speech…”

      Are you saying it’s the duty of the government to regulate speech which is critical or even offensive?

  3. What strikes me is how ultimately damaging this is for the people putting this information out, because after a while people stop believing anything they say. All you need to do is look at how powerless the main stream media in the US was to stop Trump from getting elected. The news has lost all credibility. Everything they put out is seen as propaganda.

  4. The blatant manipulation of truth can only have the opposite effect to that which was intended.

  5. Thanks. Good job with what we might call, ‘statistical fisking’, Baron.

    If Vlad reads this: Vlad, when you translated ‘Grundgesetz’ above you translated it as Basic Law, which follows a long tradition of doing so. However, as far as I am concerned, it’s a tradition of translating badly. The German word Grundgesetz splits into ‘basic’ and ‘law’ in German, but its meaning is ‘constitution’ in English.

    Yes, others are calling the German constitution, ‘the German Basic Law’, but does that make sense?

    • No, it is not a constitution. The German word for constitution is Verfassung.

      The basic law is the basic law because it was to be in place only until Germany would be reunited and free (unoccupied) again.

      Well, Germany is reunited, but instead of giving us a constitution, as the basic law demanded, the relevant paragraph from the basic law was struck.

      Weird, huh?

      • Interesting. But, no, I don’t think you’re right. Verfassung does mean constitution. But that means nothing. More than one German word can be best translated as constitution in English.

        What I am saying is that the best translation for Basic Law is also ‘constitution’. If you can give me a good reason why not, I’m interested. The German Basic Law is a constitution. It’s a set of laws which cannot be altered by parliament, and which binds the laws written by parliament. That’s a constitution, period. *Germany’s own* technical distinctions between basic law and constitution have no bearing for whether it qualifies as a constitution in English.

        The fact that it is called ‘Grundgesetz’ in German is no basis for calling it Basic Law in English.

    • A very good observation! You asked Vlad, but if I may answer –
      Sometimes you have to choose between a beautiful translation, or an accurate translation. Fortunately, most of the times, both is possible.
      But in this case, I chose accurate, even if it sounds bad.
      The German word for constitution is “Verfassung” (from Middle High German vervaʒʒunge, a written contract).
      But the German Basic Law is – like you correctly observed – called Grundgesetz, not Verfassung, because the situation in Germany is a bit of an abnormality.
      To quote from Wikipedia:
      “The term Verfassung (constitution) was not used, as the drafters regarded the Grundgesetz as an interim arrangement for a provisional West German state; expecting that an ultimate reunified Germany would adopt a full-blown constitution enacted under the provisions of Article 146 of the Basic Law, where it is stipulated that such a constitution must be “freely adopted by the German people”. Nevertheless, although the amended Basic Law was finally to be approved in 1990 by the full Allied Powers (who thereby relinquished their continued reserved constitutional rights); neither in 1949 nor in 1990 was it submitted to a popular vote.”
      It really depends on the context. When the context is not political, I might just use the word “constitution”, in order not to bewilder the discussion partner. But in the video, where this Minister is presenting official numbers on a Federal press conference, I thought I should be accurate. But there was a sentence where he said “Verfassung” and there I translated that as “constitution”.

      • OK, Egri, thanks for your response, and I responded above to Wifman before I read yours.

        Well, the meaning of ‘accurate’ is perspectival. You can be more accurate for some purposes and less accurate for others.

        It is not uncommon for a word to have a more specialized and somewhat distinct meaning among specialists than the general public. In those cases, it is commoon for people to consider the specialist’s definition ‘more accurate’ and the general puplic’s less accurate. I say no: these are two different languages, two different uses of a word. One decent example is ‘soldier’. In some militaries I know of, an officer is not a soldier. Just not. But in common language, such an officer is a soldier. I have heard people say that the common language is wrong here. It isn’t. The common language is just different to the military language.

        In the context of English-speakers like us, I still maintain that the best (and in our context most accurate) translation for ‘Basic Law’ is constitution. This may go against what some scholars would use in their context, but that is just different words for different folks.

        Does this make sense?

        • wifmpan, billy bob e.a.
          look up the word ” mireneukers” in a dictionary of dutch slang.
          However,I appreciate your efforts at accuracy in translation.

          • Talking about accuracy…
            The Dutch word ”mireneukers” does not exist.
            I presume you are refering to the word ”miereneukers” (transl. having sexual intercourse with ants, meaning nitpicking)

            Only one letter difference but wars have started over less.

          • So in other words, you drop insults in a foreign language, and then disclaim it?

            If you are going to drop insults, please have the courage to do it in English.

          • yes, not a fair move to use insults in a foreign language( or any other). Please accept my apologies.

  6. “…the rapid rise of the Werwolf movement across Germany and Austria has given rise to many concerned about the security of…..”

  7. “…the rapid rise of the Werwolf movement across Germany and Austria has given rise to many concerned about the security of…..”

  8. The Germans are free to do what they want; they will vote for Merkel or Schulz in October. All I ask is that other countries such as Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Czech Republic be left alone. We know that is not going to happen.

Comments are closed.