The election of Donald Trump last November is widely seen as part of a “populist” (i.e. nationalist) trend that will also include political earthquakes in Western Europe. Based on recent polls, it looks like Trump Round 2 will unfold in the Netherlands on March 15, when parliamentary elections are held, with Geert Wilders predicted to score a major victory.
Our Dutch correspondent H. Numan sends this useful summary of the current electoral trends in the Netherlands.
Let’s all boycott the PVV!
by H. Numan
Folks, the elections are coming up soon in The Netherlands. On the 15th of March, to be precise. Just about every party is now boycotting the PVV, Geert Wilders’ party. The few that aren’t are under pressure to join the boycott. The media do everything possible to minimize the electoral damage. The polls are softly massaged in the desired direction. But I have good news for you: Wilders will win. Not only that, he will win by a landslide. I expect the PVV to trump Trump. Even the media grudgingly admits a victory by Wilders is almost a certainty. So… let’s all boycott the PVV, making that a hollow victory.
First, the most important question: how big of a victory will the PVV be able to achieve?
50 seats, maximum. According to the law, a party cannot occupy more seats in parliament than the number of candidates they submitted. The PVV list is 50 parliamentarians long; therefore they can occupy 50 seats in parliament, no more. I have no idea what happens if the electorate were to give them more. It has never happened.
Next, how does the Dutch political election process work?
Okay, it’s the 16th of March. The polls are closed, and the results are in. Tradition says that the winner of the elections can appoint an informateur (inquirer), or, if the polls are very tight or negotiations are expected to be difficult, a pre-informateur (pre-inquirer). Not that long ago this was a royal prerogative. The queen could appoint anyone she wanted, and didn’t have to explain why. A few years ago this royal prerogative was taken away and given to Parliament.
So, the chair will appoint someone to consult all parties, write down with whom they want to govern, with whom they don’t, and under what conditions. This takes a couple of days, and he reports back to the chair. Based on the results, further consultation will take place, until it’s reasonably certain a cabinet can be formed. Then the informateur becomes formateur: he will form a cabinet and become its leader as prime minister. It’s customary to appoint an elderly statesmen or politician to do this inquiring. When the negotiations are nearly finished, a new informateur will be appointed, who will be asked to become formateur. The whole circus can be over in a fortnight, but it can also take a full year. There is no time limit. In Belgium the record is 2.5 years.
Now the funny stuff. Calling for a PVV boycott is bull. A cabinet MUST be formed, and it must be formed based on the current results. Going to the ballot box over and over again until we got what we would like it to be is not going to happen.
So, let’s look a the polls. I’ll ignore the small fry, they have very limited effect anyway. This election a record number of parties are participating: 81 parties. It is expected the ballot form will be more than a meter in length. Most of them are small fry and most of them will not pass the grade.
These are the poll results from last Sunday: numbers on the left are what they currently poll in the lower house of Parliament; on the right the actual seats they hold in the Senate:
| PVV: | 34/9 | |
| VVD (conservatives): | 23/13 | |
| CDA (Christians): | 16/12 | |
| D66 (socialist conservatives): | 14/10 | |
| GL (communists): | 16/4 | |
| SP (Maoists): | 11/9 | |
| 50Plus (elderly): | 10/2 | |
| PvdA (socialists): | 10/8 |
A government must have 76 seats in the lower house of Parliament (the Tweede Kamer) and 38 in the Senate to be able to work. This is where a PVV cabinet might face problems: within the Senate they are small, only 9 seats. Any legislation that does not please the opposition can be blocked in the Senate. A PVV blockade will likely not work in the Tweede Kamer, but does in the Senate.
The VVD party announced today that they aren’t going to work with the PVV party. Okay, that’s nice to know. A coalition PVV-PVV-CDA would be, as of today, 73 seats. Not enough to govern, but only just. What nobody talks about is an alternative. After all, if these are the electoral results, a cabinet must be formed. Any other coalition is simply impossible. Do the math. Any coalition without the PVV would need support from an unwieldy large number of parties, and that is simply out of the question.
Please bear in mind that the PvdA, SP, GL don’t want to work together to begin with. And even if they did, they would need much more than that. An ultra-left coalition? Not possible. All left wing parties combined are smaller than the PVV alone. They would need many other parties to form a coalition, and that is not going to happen.
GL-SP-PvdA=37. Add D66 to it. Not enough, and D66 is highly unlikely to do that. Add D66 plus CDA=67. Still not enough. You need another 9 seats. That would be an impossible six- or seven- party coalition. Not only that, but the coalition members are diametrically opposed to each other and only united in their hatred for Wilders. Nothing else. Rest assured if CDA and D66 were to join such an idiotic coalition, simply to spite Wilders, that would be the last time they could do that. Next time they would be voted out of existence.
But the elections aren’t here yet. So there is time enough to ‘manage’ the polls. Last week the PVV lost one (virtual) seat, and one the week before as well. Why? No reason at all. Wilders didn’t say anything, nor the party did anything warranting the loss of any virtual seats. The VVD party didn’t lose any (virtual) seats. Why not? Plenty of reason for them to loose a lot more than two virtual seats. This poll-massaging is very subtle, but I do notice that people more and more openly question those polls.
Last week the news reported emerged the government crime figures are somewhat off. By a whopping five hundred percent no less. Yes, you read that correctly. The official crime figures are five times worse then reported. The VVD already lost the minister of justice and his junior minister. The present one is considered just about the worst we have had in the history of the country. Not bad, for a chap who hopped on for the ride and has not even been two years in office.
Nobody expects the PvdA to do better than 15 or maybe 18 seats. However, nobody talks about the drubbing the VVD will certainly get. The VVD presumably holds a virtual 23 seats, based on what? Prime Minister Rutte, the guy who said he will never form a coalition with Wilders in it, broke all his electoral promises. Not one, not many, not a lot. All of them. Surely that will be remembered on the 15th of March. I would be highly surprised if the VVD manages to get even 18 seats.
The question is not will Wilders win, but by how much will he win. The PVV social boycott will now very nicely work against the boycotters. Hang a PVV poster on your wall, and stones will fly through your window. Guaranteed. Say that you prefer the PVV, and you lose your job. Guaranteed. Nothing will be done about it. Also guaranteed. Therefore most people don’t say much. They don’t have to say anything. The only thing they need to do is go and vote… Exactly the same tactics were employed by the Democrat party in America, and they lost massively. Social pressure against the PVV is much worse in The Netherlands; take my word for it.
The media eagerly report that Wilders won’t be able to get anything done, if he is elected. Because what he proposes requires “changes in the constitution”. That is baloney. Why? Because those constitutional changes weren’t required when previous governments opened our borders. So Wilders can just as easily close them. Wilders won’t need to change the constitution to make the police do the work they get paid for. Just a kick in the butt will do nicely.
He doesn’t have to change the constitution to forbid the koran. We have a very nice piece of jurisprudence: the Arrest Goeree. In a nutshell, the High Court said you are fully responsible for your own actions. You cannot justify it by a religious book. If you say, ‘I hate gays/want to destroy Jews/disobey the law/marry toddlers, because my holy book orders me so,’ you can go to jail. You are responsible for your own actions; you can’t justify them based on a book. The Goerees were ultra conservative protestants, but exactly the same applies to any religion. Also mohammedanism. All Wilders has to do is inform the courts they have to enforce the law. That’s why (amongst other reasons) we have a justice minister. Nothing could be simpler.
Currently the government is sending a delegation to Morocco begging them to take back their own citizens who are being extradited. No, said the Moroccan government, not unless a lot of money comes with them. Tunisia and Algeria said exactly the same. The same states had exactly the same policy in the past. At that time they were called the Barbary Pirate states. Wilders doesn’t need to change the constitution to negotiate with them.
Wilders doesn’t need to change the constitution to forbid the building of mosques. In Holland we normally forbid not a lot. We merely ask them to apply for a proper license, which is impossible to get. So if you hear stories about prostitution being legal in The Netherlands: yes, that’s correct. But you need to register yourself as such in a municipality, and getting a license is not easy. Then you have to register yourself with the revenue department and make sure you obey all labor-related and safety laws, which is an impossibility. All Wilders has to do is check the building safety requirements, and most mosques can be shut down. They don’t comply to safety regulations. As for the others, a check by the revenue department where the money came from is probably enough reason to shut them down as well. Nothing unconstitutional at all.
So what constitutional changes are we talking about? None. Leaving the EU doesn’t require a change in our constitution, nor will reinstating our own currency. Our constitution wasn’t changed when we entered the EU and the Euro. If we could go in without changing the constitution, we can go out as well. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: as soon as Europeans start whining about their constitution, beware! European constitutions are very different from the American constitution. Not a nice little list to memorize at school, but bone dry pieces of legislation. Yes, we have a constitution. That’s about all I know of it. That’s what 99% of the Dutch know about it too. It’s not a big deal here.
You know what is unconstitutional? Boycotting a party without good reason or for electoral gain. Blackmailing an election. Effectively committing a coupe d’état by hijacking the electorate or the results of an election. That is unconstitutional.
— H. Numan
I really feel sorry for you guys. Have for years, ever since I first became aware of Geert Wilders and found him very admirable. I don’t admire many politicians, btw.
So does this mean you are being boon-doggled in some way? Being forced or tricked to give it away. I hope you will stay strong. For some reason, and I only sense this from what I read, your people don’t say much and that may be a cultural thing. But I hope things turn out well for you. Freedom and liberty for all! As well as free speech, something Europe STILL doesn’t seem to understand, after all these years.
On the other hand, they do understand better than the creatures in the mid-East.
The world is turning and burning and nobody knows what to do. I pray and hope.
He is a star.
You talking about coalition between parties who do not want to do such thing. What would happen if the parties simply refuse to form a coalition? New election? Civil war?
Possibly a minority government — they’ve had them in the past.
I am beginning to feel the cold dead hand of that fiend rooskie Putin in all this……
What a guy!!!
Why is the PVV list limited to 50 candidates?! And why are 76 seats needed to make a government, when the total number of seats the parties are predicted to hold is 124, meaning 63 is enough for a majority? (Unless theres further parties not on the list?!)
As for people losing their jobs, etc – looks like PVV already has a huge swell of support… who knows – maybe the boss also supports them?! (And business bosses are not known for being far-leftists!)
Here in Britain, friends voted Brexit, who I had never suspected would do so… so it’s just possible that among one’s friends and coworkers, there are many PVV sympathisers who keep their voices down!
Q: Why is the PVV list limited to 50 candidates?!
A: The reason why the list of the PVV only has 50 candidates has very much to do with the fearful attitude of Dutch academics.
In order to compose a list of competent people who actually can rule, make sensible political decisions and take political responsibility, you need people with higher education, expertise, or professional or political experience. The problems is that many of the people with these merits have too much to loose. Even if they sympathize with the PVV and vote for them, they tend to keep it secret, as to not risk losing their job, promotion chances, customers or friends, and not endanger their children with being ostracized and bullied at school by other children of left-wing or mohammedan parents (Don’t reckon on left-winged teachers and the pc school board protecting your children, if this is the reason for being bullied).
Q: And why are 76 seats needed to make a government, when the total number of seats the parties are predicted to hold is 124, meaning 63 is enough for a majority?
A; The Dutch Parliament (called the “2d Room”) contains 150 seats, so a minimum of 76 of those is theoretically needed to form a stable government.
Q: And business bosses are not known for being far-leftists!
True, but the Netherlands is a nation of tradesmen, and they very much fear losing export opportunities, also to oil-rich mohammedan countries.
There is also a tendency to appease every one, and keep all options for busines open by staying away from political views which are considered “extreme” of “offensive”, whether this is to the left or to the right.
Q: Here in Britain, friends voted Brexit, who I had never suspected would do so.
A: I’m sure this is true. However, Brexit never had this paralyzing taboo around it in the UK as the PVV has in the NL. The reason is simple. Brexit was “only” about the EU and immigration from white Christian European nations, while the PVV mentions the elephant in the room that nobody else in official positions dares to touch, out of fear for being killed by fanatics or being ostracized by the left-winged elite and their supporters.
What an amazing situation. Is there some board that approves candidates credentials? It all seems so strange to Americans. One of the highest ranking senators in the USA ran, her first time, as “soccer mom in sneakers”.. Is the actually a law that requires a degree to run for office there? Is a BA sufficient or is an advanced degree required?
No wonder the country is in such bad shape. The academics have a lock on power. Geert should field enough candidates to win a crushing outright majority. Having a few truck drivers would be a very good thing.
Thank you. Still seems a surreal situation, where one can’t get over 50 candidates… surely some more elderly people could step up, who wouldnt care so much about getting ostracised?!
As for Brexit – pre June 23, if you were pro-Brexit, you were a racist and xenophobe… hence very few admittes to it. Now, a Brexiter is just an ignoramus. (PC Brits wouldnt want to imply that 52% of their population are racists?)
It’s the law. You have to submit your list of candidates before a deadline. Not sure, I think it was 30 Dec 2016 for this election. Anyone can be on that list. Education is not a requirement. Sylvana Simons (art1, black racists) has no education, Jesse Klaver (GL, communists) has high school.
” The PVV list is 50 parliamentarians long;”
Why only 50?
Can this be (substantially) increased within the remaining time frame?
If not, why not?
I am pretty surprised as well. The rules seem weird…
I agree that the rules seem weird. One example:
“Tradition says that the winner of the elections can appoint an informateur (inquirer) … Then the informateur becomes formateur: he will form a cabinet and become its leader as prime minister.”
So the winner of the elections cannot become the prime minister; the only one who becomes prime minister is an (in)formateur whom the winner appoints.
It’s not easy to find people for the PVV list in any election. Mainly because you can forget about any other career after the decision to join the PVV. And you better be totally clean when you present yourself to the public. MSM will smear you with whatever they can find, especially if you are PVV.
Still i think the PVV list should at least contain 76 names. (76 is the magic majority number in Dutch parliament)If the PVV would receive enough votes for lets say 51 people in parliament they will lose one seat to another party!!!
It’s to late to change anything on the list now..Dutch election law’s states specific time tables. The list for the march 2017 election needed to be in at the election council on januari 30th 2017.
Lets see if we can get 50 first. A large PVV will make it almost impossible to form any stable coalition.
Let me explain some more about that date 30 jan.. Deadline for the list is the 30th of januari which is 12 days away. But once you have submitted a list? That list is no longer changeable..
Well good luck to you all, I hope you can save your homeland!
The word hero is bandied about with regularity, but I truly believe this man is a hero. Never in my life have I seen someone so absolute in their commitment to a cause as Wilders is. I do not live in the Netherlands but I felt compelled to send his party a donation as I know that what happens there will radically affect the rest of us in Europe.
Tragically, it is too late for Sweden as they are just too brain washed, but there is still great hope for the Netherlands. I have been on quite a few Dutch blogs and see there are p.c. liberals planted all over them to quash and guilt any negative comments about immigration. Go Geert!
I agree. Like him or dislike him, this man is a hero. Can you imagine what is must be like to live with security already for more than 10 years? One must have a character of steel to keep going in such circumstances. And he has done nothing wrong; he just voiced an opinion.
The Dutch political system seems to be a tangled web of confusion. 81 parties! What is that all about?
Holland is a really big mess now with unwanted Muslims increasing rapidly in numbers. They outbreed the native Dutch, and if something isn’t done about their presence in the country, they will wind up owning it. Enter Geert Wilders. He’s the only politician brave enough to want to tackle the Islamic threat posed by masses of Allah aliens living in Holland. But in order to do so Geert has to become the nation’s Prime Minister ( and replace the Merkel stooge Mark Rutte currently in that position).
Come next March, let’s hope that Dutch voters will finally decide that the status quo is unacceptable, and major changes are needed to preserve Holland for its own people. The only one to deliver them is the much-maligned Patriot Geert Wilders!
If perfidy had a nation state symbolic of modern times it would be the Netherlands. Alas the USA owns that terrible distinction as of today “. Hopefully the future holds a better outcome for America. What distinguishes us from them is that 50% of Americans are awakening that it’s “fake news”, all day all night all the time. The Dutch, “geez Louise”, I don’t think they have a clue, simply, “you don’t pet alligators” (alligators=uber mensches). The Dutch aren’t naive nor the Germans, they trust the kool-aid they’re forced to swallow. When fear is the delight of our leaders and the elites! What to do? What to do?
What I suspect (and hope) is that in the polls people no longer report their true preference, especially if voting PVV is seen so negatively in The Netherlands. So I would not be surprised if the awakening for the established politicians will be as rude as for the Democrats last November.
I don’t believe the PVV will be able to form a government short of winning 76 seats. None of the so called “far right” parties in western Europe have a shot at actually governing and few of them are right wing in any sense other than being nationalist and generally anti-Islamic immigration. Democracy doesn’t actually work in western Europe and Europeans by and large aren’t particularly attached to democracy nor fans of individual rights or limited constitutional government. That is an American thing rooted in the Enlightenment. European sensibilities are rooted in the French Revolution and its aftermath. The elites in Europe will never yield to populism while in America they have never been able to hold to power for long – and that in a nutshell is what American exceptionalism has always been about.
Respectfully, I don’t think this is a case of ‘conservatism’ as an ideology. It is a case of nationalism and taking back what is theirs by defeating the Muslim invasion. That in itself means defeating the socialist, marxist status quo. The very way the Dutch system has been set up hows us that – it was created to concentrate power and influence in the country’s elites
If Wilders, Le Pen and Petry can do that, it will of necessity lead to more individual right and freedom as surely as night leads to day.
Remember that the Jacobins in France were really proto marxists. Their rebellion was a class struggle. This one will be different, I think.
Stuart (UK)
The point is that the status quo of EU has become so used to its own voice and mindset that its members have lost the use of their eyes and ears to such an extent that they only listen to an inner voice and not the peoples they believe they are serving. We have seen how the Dutch court prostituted itself by denying truth as the foundational principle of judgement in the case of Mr Wilders and now we see the EU suddenly deciding that Marine le Pen can similarly be placed at the mercy of the French courts for something in 2015; namely something on her website albeit visible on others at the time. It seems that freedom of speech is only available if one is pro-EU and pro-Islam. Everything is being allowed to be perceived as offensive so thatif giving someone a smear-label doesn’t work or the threat that it is not politically correct then ogfence rules the day in courts, media and EU mandarins. Any offence considered by those making a stance against the onslaught is dismissed. Noting this attitude and the threats to my country before, during and post Brexit result, by Junkers et al, it amazes me that any sane person would tolerate any more EU fascism. So much for the so-named representatives building a club of happy and willing countries working together, for any questioning or descent brings out threats and punishments which belie anything but contempt and a belligerence that equates tothe childish tactics of the school playground ‘I won’t be your friend if you won’t do that’. Conditional love. Conditional acceptance. So this alleged unifying that has plagued us for 40 years remains no more than an illusion which is totally conditional upon the continuing cowtowing to the unelected EU gravy-train bureaucrats manipulated like puppets by the controllers of global corporatism.
The EU parliament is nothing but a front by which to manipulate the freedoms of the people whilst giving power through the other EU institutions to owners of corporate empires for them to inflict their will on us all.
Add this dilemma then, to the invasion and the forced acceptance via political correctness of the Islamisation of our nations, and there awaits the total destruction of democracy, freedom and autonomy that we have fought and paid for over centuries. EU is not democratic. We don’t want to pay for this travesty any longer. DO YOU? We are out. JOIN US by voting PVV!
I hope that Mr Wilders has an unprecedented election win due to the Dutch people finding true courage and then later like-wise for La Pen in France. There does need to be a great shake up and power given back to the people. There is nothing wrong with being proud of one’s nationality so long as it is tempered with what is good in other countries and bad in one’s own.
Long live Freedom and Democracy
UK