This Dewey defeats Truman was due to a genuine error that is cited all the time in statistics book. In their polling, they had a bias of which they were not aware. They conducted the poll by phone. Only rich people had phones, so the poll didn’t reflect the whole population, was not really randomized.
What happened this time around was only due to the deliberate bias of the establishment. “Deliberate” is the key word. That said, non-deliberate errors happen all the time.
Fascinating, but not buying. Nobody could have been so stupid as to not know poor people could not afford the fancy gadgets of the time. It must have been deliberate.
It is cited in all statistic books, and I have taught graduate level statistics. 20/20 hindsight, everybody is a genius and a snowflake. Who cares whether you buy?
This election had the phenomenon of the “shy Trump voter”. Since the Baron and I were among the socially silent Trump voters we saw it in action. The liberals own the microphone and the floor; they can make life miserable for those who don’t agree with them.
I knew there were a whole lot of us out there, but I didn’t know it was that large. Plenty of other shy Trumpsters were probably as surprised as we were when millions of us carried the day. Not just with the presidency but with the legislative branch, too.
Here’s an explanation of the variation among shy Trump voters…
he has other scenarios in which people simply lie to pollsters, because of social pressure. That one was common this time around. It may doom the future of political polls.
As for the prosperous people in Truman’s era who’d only admit to voting for Dewey, I’ll bet a lot of them were also “shy Truman voters”…the social pressures were even greater back then.
The “basket of deplorables” did the job her syncophants should have done and told the Empress she has no pantsuit…
To the “Deplorables” – THANK YOU.
You’re everything but. She is.
How improbable to think, that the future of the country turned on a Weiner.
We must “erect” a monument to Weiner in DC.
A tiny obelisk covered by a tarp would do!
For just *once*, Ilia, we can agree on something!
Nate Silver was selling the real data to traders. The public disclosure was all rubbish to cover the insider trading.
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