A few days ago there were major headlines in all the media outlets about the bombing of a UN aid convoy in Syria. The United States blamed Russia for the attack (see this article from the Military Times that summarizes the testimony of Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, before the Senate Armed Services Committee).
Russia denies responsibility. Given that this comes on the heels of the “accidental” American bombing of Syrian regime forces, one has to wonder who is lying. When dealing with Russian geopolitical operations, disinformation is the norm. But our side puts out its own share of disinformation, so the whole thing becomes a hall of mirrors.
Below is a Russian military briefing on what happened on September 19. It makes me wonder if there is any non-classified way to confirm or refute this officer’s assertion about the Predator drone taking off from a Turkish airbase.
Many thanks to D@rLin|{ for the translation, and to Vlad Tepes for the subtitling:
Transcript:
| 00:00 | Dear colleagues, following categorical oral statements by Ben Rhodes, | |
| 00:05 | a senior aide to the NSA advisor to the President of the USA, | |
| 00:10 | in which he blamed Russia for bombing of the UN aid convoy to Aleppo, | |
| 00:15 | and leaks by the US of the alleged presence of Russian SU-24 warplanes in this area, | |
| 00:22 | we are forced to make public sensitive information related to the incident on September 19th. | |
| 00:27 | I will start with the fact that Russian Defence Ministry has | |
| 00:31 | objective intelligence on the air control situation | |
| 00:34 | on the evening of September 19th, during the hours when | |
| 00:37 | the alleged strike of the UN aid convoy occurred. | |
| 00:40 | Russian war planes had no missions in the area of Urum al-Kubra | |
| 00:44 | and were not present there at this time. | |
| 00:49 | There were no Russian Air Force presence in this area at all. | |
| 00:52 | Moreover, that same evening, we fully informed over the phone a senior US officer about this fact. | |
| 01:07 | His name is very well-known to Americans. | |
| 01:10 | But this evening in this exact area there was an object, | |
| 01:15 | which was situated two miles up and moved at a speed of 200 km/h. | |
| 01:26 | This object took off from a Turkish airbase. | |
| 01:31 | Our radars identified this object as “Predator”. | |
| 01:45 | The drone entered the airspace above the UN aid convoy in Urum al-Kubra | |
| 01:51 | a couple of minutes before it was attacked. | |
| 01:57 | It left the area thirty minutes later. | |
| 02:01 | I want to stress that we do not make baseless assumptions about this incident, | |
| 02:06 | just as we did not in a tragic case of September 17th airstrike on | |
| 02:09 | Syrian Army positions in the Deir el-Zour area, where more than 200 people were killed or wounded. | |
| 02:17 | Why this drone was there at this time, and what its mission was, is known only to its owners. | |
| 02:26 | I’d like to explain to Mr. Ben Rhodes — this unmanned drone is able | |
| 02:30 | not to just gather intelligence, but also | |
| 02:34 | to strike precise ground targets. | |
| 02:42 | Now I want to direct your attention to certain consistent patterns. | |
| 02:46 | Lately, baseless accusations against Russia of alleged airstrikes on Syrian targets | |
| 02:52 | are growing in a geometrical progression. | |
| 02:58 | This tactic is well-known, but the motives are there for all to see. | |
| 03:04 | Our Western colleagues, using media disinformation, do everything in their power | |
| 03:09 | to whitewash the tragic incident in Deir el-Zour, | |
| 03:12 | to intentionally avert the focus of world’s attention from the fact that | |
| 03:16 | Al-Nusra Front militants are attacking Aleppo | |
| 03:20 | and in such manner to cover up US incompetence | |
| 03:24 | in reaching a ceasefire between Syrian Forces and opposition militants in Syria. |
Here is video of the attack on the aid convoy,showing a missile attack ( not bombing) with visual ‘signature of the Metal-Augmented Charge (MAC) Hellfire AGM-114N, the Predator drone’s typical payload.’
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-23/caught-tape-did-us-target-syrian-aid-convoy-hellfire-missile
Can someone with military or weapons expertise confirm or debunk this please?
Although I see Russia as politically corrupt as the US, in the last decades it has been US and NATO inciting and/or carrying out the greatest atrocities. It is noteworthy the propaganda offensive that accompanies the wars of aggression… They often include outright and proven lies ( Hussein is develop and will attack with chemical weapons, Gaddafi is preparing to massacre it’s own people, Ukraine needs it’s corrupt PM changed,etc), then twisting of facts ( an hour long attack on Syrian forces with four planes that was coordinated with ISIS advance was just a mistake) and distraction/false flags ( the aid convoy attack? ).
Here is video of the attack on the aid convoy,showing a missile attack ( not bombing) with visual ‘signature of the Metal-Augmented Charge (MAC) Hellfire AGM-114N, the Predator drone’s typical payload.’
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-23/caught-tape-did-us-target-syrian-aid-convoy-hellfire-missile
Can someone with military or weapons expertise confirm or debunk this please?
Although I see Russia as politically corrupt as the US, in the last decades it has been US and NATO inciting and/or carrying out the greatest atrocities. It is noteworthy the propaganda offensive that accompanies the wars of aggression… They often include outright and proven lies ( Hussein is develop and will attack with chemical weapons, Gaddafi is preparing to massacre it’s own people, Ukraine needs it’s corrupt PM changed,etc), then twisting of facts ( an hour long attack on Syrian forces with four planes that was coordinated with ISIS advance was just a mistake) and distraction/false flags ( the aid convoy attack? ).
I believe the Russians about this aide convoy bombing.
This is standard US style to blow up something and BLAME others.
The USA started the civil war in Syria and is totally “pis**d off that they have failed their Sunni Saudi backers.
No firm opinion on this, only couple of questions. I have never seen air search, or fire control, RADAR that can identify aircraft type; so exactly how do the Russians know, positively, that the target they observed was a Predator? Some one just happens to be videoing a perfectly dark skyline at the precise moment and point of impact. What are the odds of that? This person needs to be recruited immediately for a UFO or Big Foot investigation project, we’ll finally get some decent pics. Looks very much like a Pallywood Productions release (it appears there are fires already burning so it appears the zerohedge video is of secondary explosions, if from Aleppo at all); or did someone know something in advance?
Lots of things are possible but rushing to embrace the Russians seems a bit of an over reaction. People often forget that the Russians were the Soviets, ran their empire as a Russian Empire in all but name, and were never conquered out right. The people that were in charge are still in charge. Batten to them at your own risk for they have never been as particular about collateral damage as some other players have been.
And a last question: since the current U.S. regime would bear any embarrassment or humiliation in order to not churn up the American Electorate at this political juncture what possible reason could they have to call attention to the fact that the Obama plan (incremental surrender) isn’t working? Obama isn’t trying to do anything with the Syria tar-baby but get loose from it, without jumping in the briar patch.
All aircraft have unique radar return signatures. A 747 returns a completely different signal than a 727 due to different size, number and configuration of engines etc.
Military radars are constantly updated with 360 degree radar returns for all civilian and military aircraft. Even missiles (surface to air)have this added in order to identify priority targets amongst multiple returns.
Identifying a predator or a falcon is routine and easy.
Now we’re talking about computer software, not RADAR. Still not conclusive either way.
Verbal accounts speak to several different attacks. Since the Predator, as nearly as I can determine, can carry no more than 2 Hellfire missiles not how that squares with witnesses. On the other hand I’ve only seen pic’s of one, possibly 2, trucks so still have many questions; most particularly to what profit for Obama to strike a U.N. convoy.
And what profit for the Russians? It conferred no advantage on them to attack it, and they most certainly knew what the world’s reaction would be if they did. Their intel prep would have given them enough advance information about what the convoy was, so I assume they could not have been attacking it by mistake.
The Russians are not stupid, so there is something hinky about this incident, but I can’t determine what the real story might be.
I agree that all is not, or should that be nothing is, clear.
I am of the Stephen Decatur school of foreign affairs, most especially where the Russians are concerned. I can’t say that the did it; but, I would be interested in hearing an historical examples of them, the Iranians, or Assad hesitating, much less shrinking from such an act. I am sceptical of convenient RADAR “proof” when I am certain, from years of experience, that RADAR can not differentiate acft type. Once you insert computer software into the equation the evidence becomes decidedly less compelling. How up to date is the software? Who wrote it or “tweeked” the data? Etc., etc.
Could be the Russians are being completely straight-up about it. Disinformation only works if accassioally there is some honesty.
By the way I just read that the Russians have just unearthed, conveniently a long lost memory chip that proves conclusively, through the miracle of RADAR, that the Ukrainians, not the Russians, shot down MH17. Does one story support or lend veracity to the other? Wheels within wheels.
Like Decatur I will batten to what I know, my country, right or wrong.
I don’t doubt for a nanosecond that the Russians would commit an act like bombing a UN aid convoy, if it served their interests. If they found the action useful, they wouldn’t hesitate to carry it out.
But in this case I fail to see why doing so would be in their interests. Therefore:
(1) Someone else besides the Russians bombed the aid convoy, or
(2) It was not actually an aid convoy, but something else (say, supplies intended for the Islamic State) disguised as an aid convoy. Then the Russians might have had a compelling reason to destroy it, even knowing the likely reaction of “world opinion”.
I don’t know which of the above two possibilities is more likely, but they are the only two I can think of that make any sense.
All wars are terrible, every wasted life, be it a soldier or civilian, is a personal tragedy for their families and friends.
However, in the past few weeks,when there have been memorial services for the WW1 battles of Jutland and The Somme, when tens of thousands died on day ONE, is there not an over sensitised 21st Century reaction to the war in Syria? You interfere and there will be casualties, you withdraw and let someone win there will be casualties, this is the nature of war!
It is a totally illogical process, devoid of any rational thought processes, “to the victor the spoils” as they say even if it is just a pile of ashes.
The human species is unfortunately one of the cruelest to inhabit planet earth and this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
Just have one question. If humanitarian aid is the window-dressing and tap dancing the West operates behind, what would be its motive for the attack on a humanitarian convoy?