The following essay speculating on Europe’s immediate future was published in the Austrian journal Neue Ordnung*. Many thanks to JLH for the translation:
Actions Will Speak
by Dr. Wolfgang Dvorak-Stocker
Throw a frog into hot water and it jumps right out. But if you raise the temperature slowly, it will stay in the water until it dies. Thanks be to Mrs. Merkel. She has raised the temperature abruptly. Maybe we will jump out of the system that is surrendering our culture to a slow death by heat.
For decades, European elites have been pursuing the shattering of the European national cultures and transformation of the continent after the American model. The writer Barbara Spectre has named what she considers compelling reasons for that. This plan is now in serious peril. The frog may jump out of the water.
Members of the European right have grappled for a long time with the implications of the ideas of Mrs. Spectre and company. Journals like Neue Ordnung have explained why we consider the displacement of people and the dissolution of nations to be just as against human nature and disaster-prone, as the battle against religion and the destruction of families and gender identity. We have warned for decades of the consequences of demographic developments. We have repeatedly pointed out what perils the decreed multiculturalism and Islam’s expansion in Europe harbor, particularly for the democratic constitutional state. And we have made clear why the welfare state is being destroyed by mass immigration.
The time for arguments is past. That does not mean we should stop arguing, but we must understand that we are essentially only repeating what we have been saying for decades. The powers-that-be have brought things to a point where it is no longer enough to contend the pros and cons in the comfortable armchairs of public discourse. Right now — like it or not — actions will do the speaking. In the 1960s, British conservative, Enoch Powell, spoke of “rivers of blood” to which immigration policy would lead. That time has now come.
And the thinking in terms of parliamentary cycles also belongs in the past. It is of no consequence whether some patriotic party gains a few percentage points in the next election, or not. The decision will be made in the next year or two. Legally exercised forms of resistance such as demonstrations’ proving to be completely futile — ridiculed and slandered by the media — will have consequences. This is already clear. And we, who have warned of these developments, will again be the scapegoats, as Ernst Jünger knew: “After an earthquake, it’s the seismographers who get beaten up.”
We are, in the formulation of Viennese political scientist, Michael Ley, “at war.” We are undergoing a hijra — a jihad invasion. Wherever this leads, the years 2015-2017 will mean something to students a thousand years from now.
There are various possible directions of development, but three of them are probable:
1. Radical Change
Police and volunteers are reaching the end of their ability to cope. Government finances are overextended. The immigrants’ expectations of instant prosperity — to some extent promised by the people smugglers — that everyone will immediately get a car and a house, are disappointed. Realistic estimates by economists assume that fewer than 30% of the immigrants can be placed in the labor market. Conflicts within the refugee camps, but also with police and the local population, will increase. There will be fatalities.
In the local elections in Spring, 2016, AfD will enter the state legislatures with double-digit results, the CSU will slam on the emergency brake, Merkel will step down, there will be new elections. A fundamental change in the party system seems possible, similar to what has already happened in Italy and Greece. The hopes of many AfD adherents seem to focus on that. If it comes to a center-right government, the military, the police and the bureaucracy would be prepared — indeed just waiting for the setting of a new political leadership.
Then Germany could really close the borders. The result would be a domino effect. What does Austria do? How will Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia act? If it comes to a rigorous closing of the border, some part of the immigrants will probably try to force their way north. Plundering, battles and fatalities will be the result in southeast Europe. And to be expected in Germany is that leftist extremist forces will join the immigrants in throwing themselves in the path of the new government. Here too, escalation will accelerate.
If the new German government wants to retain control in this situation, it will not be able to avoid giving the shoot-to-kill order already mentioned by Alexander Gauland of the AfD. At first to secure the border, and also for internal security, after the first police officers are killed. Even this seems possible in a situation in Europe in which people are dying daily. Then the German government could enforce push-backs. If the pendulum of public opinion swings radically, an extensive divestiture would be conceivable, with voluntary reverse migration of immigrants who had arrived recently. Germany could become a model for Europe, with countries like France and England encouraged to take similar measures.
However, the objections to this scenario are massive. Won’t German voters be even more likely to flee into the arms of their rulers in parlous times? When the GDR collapsed in 1989, the goal was clear. Now, there is nowhere to go. And the question is: Is the German people up to defending its national interests — if necessary by force?
So, with its remaining strength, the Federal Republic manages to stop the flood of immigration, perhaps with Turkey doing the “dirty work” for it. There are no extensive expulsions, since they cannot be accomplished without violence, and our society is not ready for that. In spite of escalating conflicts, many asylum seekers are pushed on to central Germany and Eastern Europe. That way, Germany and/or the EU can handle millions more immigrants and their follow-on family members in the coming years. “We can do it” — but the majority relationships in the young active part of the population under forty will change abruptly, at least in Western Europe. And the East will follow. Germany is changing… more than in the last three decades, and ten percent faster. The EU is changing. A majority non-European population is within reach. Islam becomes the strongest religion in many regions.
Representatives of an “active pessimism” like Götz Kubitschek expect such a development. They regard the creation of nests of resistance below the governmental level as the last, non-negotiable line of retreat. After the frenzy of the “welcoming culture,” anyone who wants to remain German will act on this with increased intensity.
Looking at the intellectual conditioning of recent decades, the fear must be that this is the most likely scenario. But what does this mean in the long run? Will a reconquista be possible at some time? Or must we only expect collapse? Will governmental institutions, by then increasingly affected by not only leftist multiculturalists but by immigrants, even allow such “German resistance centers”? Will they not take the fight to them, as has been the practice of the “managerial state” (Paul Gottfried) for decades in the USA? And while there is in the USA at least a strong tradition of autonomy and independence, no such attitude can be claimed here.
On the other hand, all rightist, “patriotic” internet portals have experienced a doubling or tripling of selection. Sharing of the articles in Sezession, Junge Freiheit, unzensuriert.at, etc. on social networks has increased a hundred-thousand-fold and often reach more readers than the articles of established news journals. More and more people recognize the manipulations of the “lying press,” no longer trust the mass media and seek information elsewhere. Millions of citizens are on the way to recognizing how things really are. When critical mass is achieved, basic change will take place abruptly. This can happen within several months. And then, yet other scenarios will become more likely.
The immigration tsunami will bring about the shattering of the EU. Schengen is already in the past. For the first time since the end of WWII, train travel between Austria and Germany has been halted for months. And now, Austria is beginning a border fence with Slovenia. Even in the time of the Cold War, there had been no such thing between communist Yugoslavia and pro-West Austria. More and more countries are instituting border controls.
The East European states are refusing forced acceptance of immigrants. And yet the powers-that-be still manage to prevent the collapse of government structures. The conflict between East and West is reaching a crescendo. Michael Ley expects this development: Arising from the Visegrád States, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland, a new east European alliance will arise, connecting the Baltic countries and the Slavic countries of southeast Europe. People here are aware of the process that led to the demise of the autochthonic cultures in western Europe, and do not wish to go down this path. Austria too — despite its high numbers of immigrants — could, under an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition government, turn to this east European association of nations. In fact, even for the central German federal states and possibly the free state of Bavaria, secession from a West Germany that is swirling down the whirlpool of multiculturalism is conceivable. Such calls were already raised in the PEGIDA demonstrations and it is noteworthy that the AfD and its anti-immigration demonstrations is successful precisely in those states of the former GDR in which there are thus far very few non-European immigrants (with the exception of isolated refugee camps). So the majority situation could reach the tipping point much more swiftly than in the West. Of course, many German patriots see any calculation of secession as treason. But what if this western Germany was no longer a land of the Germans? What if secession were the only option for several ethnically and culturally German parts of the country to preserve a Germany that is still German?
Even in this scenario, there are huge question marks. Is the political power for such a development feasible? Will the USA and its political puppets in the EU allow it? Politically, economically and militarily, the east European countries are a negligible quantity. Of themselves, they will not generate the force to split off. So is a decisive pivoting toward Russia necessary? That would be no problem for Serbia, Bulgaria or Greece, probably also for Hungary. But what about Poland, the Baltic states and Croatia? And yet, could a potent Russia not at least be regionally, politically supportive to a secession movement.?
Years of Decision
These are the “years of decision.” It is about our country, our people, about Europe. No more and no less. The greatest danger is the re-birth of a reactionary nationalism which sets European peoples against one another instead of binding them together.
1. Austrian Freedom Party, Austrian People’s Party
|*||I’m aware of the reputation that surrounds Neue Ordnung. However, this particular essay is right on the mark from a Counterjihad perspective, regardless of the author’s sympathies as evidenced by certain references in the text.