The following analysis of the “refugee” crisis in Germany was published in The European before New Year’s, but it is especially relevant now, in the wake of the Groping Jihad in Cologne and elsewhere on Silvester night.
Many thanks to JLH for the translation:
Truths About the Refugee Crisis
by Adorján F. Kovcás
December 28, 2015
The current number of immigrants is repeatedly compared to the total German population of the Federal Republic. That results in no accurate prognoses. The basis for comparison of numbers would be careful consideration with no thought prohibitions. To arrive at results, it will suffice to employ fundamental arithmetic.
In 2015, a likely million people came to Germany — recently no longer called refugees, economic refugees or asylum seekers, but “people seeking protection.” According to statements of all those responsible for decision-making, this is not the end of the Einwanderung which is euphemistically styled Zuwanderung. Neither the agreements with the Turks nor other measures will make any difference, if there is not a fundamental change of direction, if this should even be desired. This is not something to expect from the established parties. The decision taken in September by Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, that makes it possible — therefore obligatory — to accept 500,000 people annually, has not been convincingly disclaimed. So — and this is not unlikely — in five years, three to four million more people could be living in Germany than at the beginning of this year.
Comparison to Number of Residents is Not Valid
Besides the invocation of the right to asylum, the chief argument of proponents of this unprecedented immigration is against the fanning the flames of panic by the critics of this development. Germany, according to the chancellor, is powerless against this, and really one or two or even three million people are so few in comparison to the 79 or 80 million people who presently live in Germany. But this is an invalid comparison.
According to figures published by BAMF, immigrants are not between one and 100 years old, but are almost exclusively between 20 and 35 years old, if not younger. So they must properly be compared with exactly this age cohort in the Federal Republic. The federal office for statistics counts 15 million people in this age group in Germany. Anyone can check this out on the interactive age pyramid on their website. The percentage of people in this age group who have an “immigration background” to use this ghastly neologism, is circa 3.5 million.
Since most of the “people seeking protection” are men, “family reunions” are to be expected. At the moment, no one knows how many of the immigrants will stay here or how many family members will come to join someone who stays. There are estimates of three to eight people. So if only half of the three to four million stayed in Germany, and only three people came for each recognized refugee or asylum seeker, then we are talking about eight million people added to the fifteen million in that age group.
The Percentage of Immigrants Will Continue to Climb
So, in five years, of the 23 million residents in this country between 20 and 35 years old, 11.5 million would have an immigration background. That is half. And that is not considering the higher birth rate of at least the first generation of immigrants. Just think thirty years into the future, when the majority — over 50% of those now living in Germany, and these are the older people — have died out, and now imagine the future composition of the population of the Federal Republic. There are some uncertainties in this extrapolation — the volume of immigration, the residence permits granted and the family reunions in coming years. Nonetheless, it is very probable.
Just examine the public pronouncements of the politicians of almost all parties in light of these figures. Federal President Joachim Gauck’s August demand that we free ourselves of the idea that the mother tongue of almost all citizens is German and citizens are overwhelmingly Christian and white, is not a prophecy. It is correct. It just happens that he no longer made any mention of “Germans.” That is consistent. Regrettable or not, the Federal Republic of Germany is actually overwhelmingly no longer inhabited by a German people, but by a multi-ethnic population of federal citizens. That is a lasting change.
|1.||Two German synonyms for “Immigration” are used here to make what might be called an “insider” point.
Used as they are here, the distinction between Zuwanderung vs Einwanderung = approximately the distinction between “approach or come toward” vs “enter”. Example: someone who takes advantage of what is available on a roadside table, likes what is there and decides to find a place to stay, versus someone who walks in and sits down at your family table for dinner, without asking (and then probably complains about the quality of the food).
|2.||Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge = Federal Office for Immigration and Refugees