Truths About the Refugee Crisis

The following analysis of the “refugee” crisis in Germany was published in The European before New Year’s, but it is especially relevant now, in the wake of the Groping Jihad in Cologne and elsewhere on Silvester night.

Many thanks to JLH for the translation:

Truths About the Refugee Crisis

by Adorján F. Kovcás
December 28, 2015

The current number of immigrants is repeatedly compared to the total German population of the Federal Republic. That results in no accurate prognoses. The basis for comparison of numbers would be careful consideration with no thought prohibitions. To arrive at results, it will suffice to employ fundamental arithmetic.

In 2015, a likely million people came to Germany — recently no longer called refugees, economic refugees or asylum seekers, but “people seeking protection.” According to statements of all those responsible for decision-making, this is not the end of the Einwanderung which is euphemistically styled Zuwanderung.[1] Neither the agreements with the Turks nor other measures will make any difference, if there is not a fundamental change of direction, if this should even be desired. This is not something to expect from the established parties. The decision taken in September by Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, that makes it possible — therefore obligatory — to accept 500,000 people annually, has not been convincingly disclaimed. So — and this is not unlikely — in five years, three to four million more people could be living in Germany than at the beginning of this year.

Comparison to Number of Residents is Not Valid

Besides the invocation of the right to asylum, the chief argument of proponents of this unprecedented immigration is against the fanning the flames of panic by the critics of this development. Germany, according to the chancellor, is powerless against this, and really one or two or even three million people are so few in comparison to the 79 or 80 million people who presently live in Germany. But this is an invalid comparison.

According to figures published by BAMF[2], immigrants are not between one and 100 years old, but are almost exclusively between 20 and 35 years old, if not younger. So they must properly be compared with exactly this age cohort in the Federal Republic. The federal office for statistics counts 15 million people in this age group in Germany. Anyone can check this out on the interactive age pyramid on their website. The percentage of people in this age group who have an “immigration background” to use this ghastly neologism, is circa 3.5 million.

Since most of the “people seeking protection” are men, “family reunions” are to be expected. At the moment, no one knows how many of the immigrants will stay here or how many family members will come to join someone who stays. There are estimates of three to eight people. So if only half of the three to four million stayed in Germany, and only three people came for each recognized refugee or asylum seeker, then we are talking about eight million people added to the fifteen million in that age group.

The Percentage of Immigrants Will Continue to Climb

So, in five years, of the 23 million residents in this country between 20 and 35 years old, 11.5 million would have an immigration background. That is half. And that is not considering the higher birth rate of at least the first generation of immigrants. Just think thirty years into the future, when the majority — over 50% of those now living in Germany, and these are the older people — have died out, and now imagine the future composition of the population of the Federal Republic. There are some uncertainties in this extrapolation — the volume of immigration, the residence permits granted and the family reunions in coming years. Nonetheless, it is very probable.

Just examine the public pronouncements of the politicians of almost all parties in light of these figures. Federal President Joachim Gauck’s August demand that we free ourselves of the idea that the mother tongue of almost all citizens is German and citizens are overwhelmingly Christian and white, is not a prophecy. It is correct. It just happens that he no longer made any mention of “Germans.” That is consistent. Regrettable or not, the Federal Republic of Germany is actually overwhelmingly no longer inhabited by a German people, but by a multi-ethnic population of federal citizens. That is a lasting change.


1.   Two German synonyms for “Immigration” are used here to make what might be called an “insider” point.

Used as they are here, the distinction between Zuwanderung vs Einwanderung = approximately the distinction between “approach or come toward” vs “enter”. Example: someone who takes advantage of what is available on a roadside table, likes what is there and decides to find a place to stay, versus someone who walks in and sits down at your family table for dinner, without asking (and then probably complains about the quality of the food).

2.   Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge = Federal Office for Immigration and Refugees

45 thoughts on “Truths About the Refugee Crisis

      • Comparatively less and less specifically related to muslim demographics and most importantly those non muslims of fighting age are not actively involved in destroying a host culture.

        • The relative proportions of fighting age males, I assume, are weighed strongly in favour of the non-Muslim majority population.

          Despite the shock provoking images, I don’t think that those proportions will change considerably, even decades from now.

          AFAIK, Germany is roughly around 80 million strong, that is the reality.

          • The ethnic German population is aging fast. The Muslim male population is going to quickly take over the majority in the next generation.

          • The “reality” is that Germany is being over-run by hundreds of thousands of people who do not share Western values; in fact, they are hostile toward the West. We’ve all seen the pictures, listened to the the horrors – e.g., Erdogan’s threats about what mosques are for. A population begins to shift toward sharia (as opposed to Western) law somewhere around 15%.

            Name ONE majority Muslim country in which women are treated well, or even one that has a prosperous middle class and rule of law.

            Islam is juridical and supremacist. Always has been…wherever it goes, deserts, destruction, and poverty thrive. Islam has attracted young men because the West is in decline economically and its culture is a shambles. Those are prime opportunities for an appeal to young men who haven’t much hope of ever finding honorable work and/or women who are willing to become partners in the enterprise of raising a family.

            The economic and moral core of the West is hollowed out: a perfect petri dish for Islam.

          • Have a walk around Bury, Bolton, Bradford, Burnley, Preston, Rochdale, Oldham, Birmingham, Oxford, London where we have isolated communities of muslims living separate existences under different cultural norms to the rest of British society.

            These enclaves become larger and larger, their cultural influence more and more prevalent and accepted upon British culture through a multitude of “positive” discrimination.

            London, the capital of Britain even has less British people living there than foreigners.

            Muslims are affecting cultural annihilation of Britain, just as they are in the rest of Europe.

            Do we need to mention FGM, Halal food, Islamic terrorism, Islamic criminality, Womens Rights, Western concepts of Equality and Personal Freedoms, Sharia Patrols, Muslim Paedophile Gangs, Proliferation of Mosques (and what happens inside them), the very contents of the Koran and bad examples of behaviour by your prophet that you follow as he is the “perfect man”.

  1. When politicians are telling you to abandon the notion of your own mother tongue and religion to accommodate others you must surely realise that you have been treacherously betrayed. As these unwelcome third world young men ( let’s forgo the pretence that there are many women and children amongst them) can and eventually will be issued with EU passports, it is clear that mutti Merkel is expecting the rest of Europe to join in with Germany’s protracted ethnic, economic and cultural suicide.

    • “When politicians are telling you to abandon the notion of your own mother tongue and religion to accommodate others you must surely realise that you have been treacherously betrayed.”

      I haven’t seen any news of this, I wonder if this can be proven, especially the mother tongue part & politicians?

      • You are not paying much attention then.
        Norway recently told camps to remove crosses so as not to offend the savages.

        • Thankyou for that information.

          “When politicians are telling you to abandon the notion of your own…religion”

          To me it appears the “you” refers to the Norwegians being told to abandon their religion.

          As I can can gather, the crosses are located in refugee accomodation for non-Norwegians, thus Norwegians aren’t being forced to lose their faith.

  2. “It is the political classes who set out deliberately to dilute native cultures, laws and traditions. It is they who implemented an education system based around moral relativity in which all races, colours, creeds and lifestyles have equal merit. It is they who opened our borders to the entire world in order to force our societies to become diverse. With absolutely no mandate whatsoever.”
    Wasp, comment (no longer shown)

  3. If most of the ‘refugees’ are men, that means they left their families in’danger’, right. So one can assume that if they aren’t cowards, they do not have families, making ‘family reuinion’ a nonsense.

  4. People needing protection? Who is going to protect us from them? Time to kick the politicians into touch and do the job ourselves.

  5. This is actually one of the most important/useful analyses of the long-term of the situation that I’ve seen, and it’s a scary one.

  6. More Truth – US Refugee Resettlement

    “They are using the UN managed US Refugee Resettlement program to bring hundreds of thousands of strictly fundamentalist Muslims into the US.

    The White House and State Department NEVER reports on these numbers!

    The “refugees” are brought to the US under the radar on chartered flights and bused through our now almost nonexistent southern boarder by “Homeland Security.” They are then handed off to private American charities that receive MILLIONS of tax dollars to “settle” these people.”

  7. Family reunification calculators should recall that they may each have 4 wives–and the wives may be from Pakistan–like our San Bernardino cultural enricher found in the 2’d generation of his family’s diaspora (invasion?, immigration?) of/to the United States. Can a strange new respect for culturally appropriate polygamy be very far behind gay marriage in our slide into cultural incoherence?

    • They may have 4 wives, but does US law recognise and allow them all in?
      I doubt that there is any evidence for that.

      • They come into the country as “girlfriends”, allowed in because these “girlfriends” have children by these polygamist Moslem males.

        • So legally that is not recognising polygamy, but just the same status as for non-Muslims.

      • The UK certainly looks the other way and allows this – I’ve seen this for myself. The “other” wives are legally treated as single mothers – being provided with housing and unemployment benefit. The tax payers of places such as the UK pay for this; the demographics of the nation changes, the culture changes with it – whether intentionally or not.

        • 1 – My specific point is in regard to “beating the immigration system,” fraudulently allowing in these girlfriends as wives from abroad.

          2 – The U.K., single mothers/wives with children is no different legally for non-Muslims, it has nothing do with immigration of these non-native girlfriends/wives.

          Now, turning a blind eye to scenario 1 as you seem to imply in your anecdotal claim from scenario 2, is a serious matter.
          The two scenarios are legally different, unless there is evidence to the contrary.
          Do you have evidence that would stand in a law court?

          • I cold testify as a witness to the facts I have been informed of by your fellow muslims and local authority employees.

  8. 15 million Germans 20-35.
    7.5 million emasculated, vilified, demonized male video gamers.
    7.5 million man-hating, PC-brainpoisoned women
    Add X million Arab & African men 20-35 and you get: Genocide in 1, maybe 2 generations.

    • Spot on.

      A civilization deceived into killing itself.

      If there’s anyone in the future who isn’t Muslim, they will look back at this in disbelief.

    • Interesting speculation.
      I wonder how close those figures are to reality?
      There appear to be all kinds of mental leaps & bounds required in order to get to the “We’re DOOMED!” paranoid wet dream of genocide.

      • Except for what we see in front of our very eyes? I was raised in a multicultural environment. I have black African family and friends from diverse races.

        It was a shock to me when I went to university and first came across muslims – who did not interact or group socially with other people. From my background I saw them immediately for what they really are – supremacists and racists.

        I was further shocked when seeing the muslim demographics of senior school age in some areas. Given the supremacist and racist attitudes of muslims I had already encountered I knew what this would mean ten years down the line.

        After that I paid attention to the contents of the Koran (Go on – try and defend it) which further illuminated the root cause of Islam’s inability to integrate into Britain. This was quite some time ago.

        Since then we have been seeing, with increasing regularity the fruits of Islam to the point where Western Europe is waking up to the existential threat that Islam really is.

        The worst thing any rational, logically thinking person could do would be to swallow that black and green taqiyya pill that you are holding out – the one that would make us believe Islam is no threat to Western Civilisation.

        The contents of your Koran and way of life can only ever mean you are in conflict with any other peoples or belief system.

  9. Suppose, inside a couple of decades, the multi-ethnic composition of the German people becomes established in the proportions predicted by the author. Questions are then raised not only about the preservation of social peace, but also about about the viability of the German economy.

    Weakened by the presence of millions of people from an antique culture with little history of scientific innovation nor the security and prosperity resulting from an advanced economic organisation, German society faces a much more impoverished future than it’s become used to.

    I haven’t seen this scenario discussed much in the blogosphere.

    • The WASP Americans and Australians said similar things about Catholic immgration from Europe.

      • But the Catholics were assimilated over time, weren’t they? There is no evidence to suggest that Moslems assimilate because in truth they never do. They immigrate to spread their vile ideology, not to integrate into any other culture.

        • The Catholics integrated, rather than assimilated to WASP America. Muslims are doing the same.

          • The penalty for leaving Islam is death. If the penalty weren’t enforced, you wouldn’t be writing here as “Muslim” – your ancestors would have left a long, long time ago.

          • Muslims are definitely not doing the same in Britain. I have seen this with my own eyes. They create muslim areas from which they then expand.

            Your lies are so ridiculous.

  10. We should not worry right now about family reunions. What we should worry about is this:
    No of single young male immigrants by EOY: 4 – 11 million (estimates vary for 2016)
    No of single young male native Germans: approx 6 million*

    Conclusion: the invading army will be invincible within a very short time.

    *15 mill – 3.5 mill immigrants / 2 (half assumed to be female)

    • Not necessarily.
      A few hundred well-trained, well-armed European (or even just very determined) colonial troops were usually good enough to beat many thousands of natives in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
      Rorke’s Drift might serve as an example.

  11. Here’s another dubious use of statistics: Someone remarked that the number of men involved in the groping rampage in Cologne (excluding all the other cities that had similar problems …) is a small fraction of the “refugees” admitted into Germany this year — so let’s just go after the culprits and be nice to all the others!

    Some important questions she neglected:
    * What fraction of ethnic Germans (or non-Muslim German residents) participated in the attacks?
    * How common were such occurrences at large public gatherings in Germany (or Austria or Switzerland) before the Muslim migrant influx?
    * What basis is there for confidence that all the migrants who did not directly participate in this New Year’s outrage have no inclination to do anything similar in the future?
    * How much criminality should be imported into Germany (and other European countries) provided that a large number of non-criminals come in at the same time?

    I’m sure there are other important questions too — such as the question of “nonviolent” pressure on the host country to refashion itself in the image of Islam.

Comments are closed.