The New Migration Period

If you appreciate this essay by Fjordman, please consider making a donation to him, using the button at the bottom of this post.

The New Migration Period
by Fjordman

Subjects related to legal or illegal mass immigration fill the news in virtually every Western country these days. Sometimes it can be useful to look at the big picture, not just individual news stories.

Demographers estimate that the world’s population will grow by well over 70 million people during the year 2015.[1] Let us say that the global population will increase by 73 million people in 2015. This corresponds to a global population growth of more than 6 million people per month, around 1.4 million people per week, nearly 200,000 per day, more than 8327 per hour, almost 139 per minute and 2.3 per second. If you spend 30 seconds on fetching a cold drink in the fridge, the planet’s population will increase with about 69 people during this time. If you spend half an hour on eating lunch, there will be 4164 more people on Earth after your lunch break.

It sounds generous if somebody suggests that we should accept 8,000 asylum seekers from countries with many social problems. However, consider the fact that this is the equivalent of the planet’s population growth in less than an hour. That is roughly the amount of time many of us spend daily on commuting to work or school.

Statistically speaking, much of the population growth will be concentrated in low-income families and in societies with many social problems. Technologically advanced nations such as Germany and Japan have very low birth rates. In contrast, Nigeria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tanzania, Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Mali, Yemen, Somalia, Kenya, Gambia, Mauritania, Senegal, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iraq, Libya and the Philippines are experiencing a substantial population increase. Meanwhile, countries such as India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Congo, Indonesia, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda, the Philippines and Egypt have many malnourished children.

The Neolithic Revolution began gradually in several different regions, starting with the Fertile Crescent in the Middle East 10-12,000 years ago. Prior to this we were all hunter-gatherers. The global population at the onset of the Neolithic Revolution is uncertain. It has been estimated at perhaps 5 million, possibly 15 million people.[2] The lower estimate is roughly equivalent to the current population of Norway. The higher estimate corresponds to today’s population of Norway plus Sweden. This was the total number of human beings living on all continents minus Antarctica: Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia plus North America and South America. A single major city the size of Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul, Karachi, Mexico City, Lagos, Mumbai or Cairo now has more residents than there were people living on this entire planet before we started practicing agriculture.[3]

The very first groups that began practicing agriculture and kept livestock did not automatically enjoy improved health because of this. They may actually have developed new illnesses. However, by growing their own food, they could gradually increase their numbers. During the past ten thousand years, while farming spread across the world, the number of people rose significantly.[4] It is believed that the world’s total human population for the first time reached one billion people around the year 1800, at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.[5] It took all of the Earth’s peoples since the Neanderthals hundreds of thousands of years to achieve this number. Since the Industrial Revolution, the global population has grown dramatically over the last two centuries. This trend still continues unabated, at least in many of the planet’s southern regions.

In the coming three decades, Africa’s population could increase by more than one billion people.[6] A single continent can thus increase by a larger number of people in 30 years than it took all continents combined hundreds of thousands of years to achieve before the year 1800. This increase will take place on the planet’s least technologically developed continent. In a mere 4 to 11 weeks, the number of human beings currently grows by more than the number of people living on the entire planet 10,000 years ago. In the Stone Age, the means of transport were primitive, and travel limited. Now, we have modern means of transport such as railways, trucks, motorized boats and intercontinental flights. Combined with a global population explosion, this has created the largest and fastest migration waves the Earth has ever witnessed since our species first came into existence.

We do not know the exact population figures of the Roman Empire nearly two thousand years ago. Estimates vary from around 40 million people to over 100 million people. A relatively common estimate is that the total population of the Roman Empire was about 60-80 million people.[7]

By comparison, in 2013 the world’s population grew by 75 million people annually.[8] Various estimates suggest a global population growth of between 70 and 80 million for 2015.[9] This means that the world’s population is now adding another Roman Empire every single year, maybe more. Most of this increase is concentrated in dysfunctional countries and regions.

About fifteen hundred years ago Europe underwent a turbulent age which has been named the Migration Period. Yet the population movements then were more limited than those facing Europe today. In both speed and sheer numbers, the current migration waves are far greater than those we associate with the fall of the (Western) Roman Empire.

It is completely unrealistic to solve basic problems through the international migration of billions of people. Most social problems of countries in the global South must be resolved locally. There is simply no other option.

People must realize that the population movements we are now witnessing are unprecedented in scope. Mankind has never before experienced migrations on this scale. The migration waves are big enough to overwhelm entire countries. Or, in the case of Europe, perhaps even entire continents.

Moreover, these migration waves are still developing. Africa, the Islamic world, the Indian subcontinent and other southern regions are projected to experience further population growth for generations to come. This means that the migration pressures on Europe are likely to continue for decades. There is a distinct possibility that the pressures could increase. What we are seeing now are merely the early stages of a long-term trend.


1. World population, 2015.
2. World population
3. List of urban areas by population, 2015.
4.   Read the 2009 book The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution, by Henry Harpending and Gregory Cochran.
5. …it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion
6. Africa’s population to double to 2.4 billion by 2050. 12 Sep 2013.
7. Demography of the Roman Empire. There are many estimates of the population for the Roman Empire, that range from 45 million to 120 million with 55-65 million as the classical figure. More modern estimates place this number at the higher end (80-120 million).
8. Typhoon Haiyan: there is worse to come. 11 November 2013.
9. Annual World Population Change: 1950-2050


For a complete archive of Fjordman’s writings, see the multi-index listing in the Fjordman Files.

49 thoughts on “The New Migration Period

    • The seeds of death for the West are being presently sown. I watched a spokesperson for the Hungarian government get a hard time last night from an interviewer of the lefty BBC demanding to know why their PM had stigmatized people of Islam persuasion. I imagine the Hungarians are acutely aware of their nations history and can see where these events are leading. The Western media have used the photo of a dead child on a beach, to whip up a frenzy of how the West could be so cruel to deny these poor people who are only seeking a better life, refuge in Europe. Islam does not care about children, children are only a means to an end for this creed. Using them for suicide bombing, selling them into slavery and raping them. The British blogger Guido Fawkes has some interesting comments on the insidious disinformation been presently played out.

      • Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Eastern Europeans especially in the Balkans well know the result of 500+ yrs’ of Ottoman domination, and are not eager for a rerun.

      • Schools have been teaching false whitewashed history for decades in the name of inclusion and tolerance. This has resulted in the inclusion of evil and tolerance of evil, meaning that almost everyone who got their knowledge of history from grade school in the last 40 years, at least, is now so tolerant and inclusive that they’re unable to identify and respond to threats.

        Oops, too late to fix that now. Brace for impact. Maybe the next civilization will figure out how to do better, if there is a next civilization.

  1. That’s a good world-map projection; very suited to its purpose.

    Reference is made to “migration pressures on Europe”.
    What migration pressures on Europe? Outsiders may want to
    enter Europe, but it is completely within the power of Europeans
    not to let them in. What about the migration pressures on Africa?
    So far, Africans — and the climate and indigenous diseases
    of their beautiful continent — have been successful in averting
    a Camp of the Sinners scenario.

  2. Your article assumes world populations will continue to grow exponentially. It will not.
    Land mass is not the problem as the state of Texas could easily accommodate 11bn people and with the correct farming and husbandry technology, all could be well fed. However, this is only a small part solution to a very big problem.
    Accept it or not, the planet is well overpopulated. Here in the UK, for centuries the population remained at around 4m using traditional farming methods, this at a time when it was a very lucky man who saw his grandchildren, that was until the advent of the Industrial Revolution and the populace has been expanding ever since.
    One thing very few valuable contributors omit is that we live by Mother Natures rules.
    In every section and sector of the modern society, one sees these rules being flouted and ignored and the final outcome is that Mother Nature will win. She always does.

    • Re Texas could look after the entire world’s population and feed everyone… Uh uh, the problems of water and waste would be insurmountable; nor do I believe for a moment Texas could feed the world, and what a nightmare scenario that would be–look at China and India today. (crowding, poverty, filth and pollution)
      But I do agree that the world is well and truly over-populated.
      BTW, since you’re from the UK, remember some of the best times in the UK’s history occurred immediately after plagues, (the Black Death) when suddenly there was more land available, livestock, etc., and vastly better living conditions, people seem to forget that…

        • If you cannot allow another poster to state an opinion without flaming, why don’t you [become more demonstrative of your maturity] before you post again?

        • Oh my, we are touchy!
          I said nothing to warrant such a comment.

          You need a course in anger management, methinks…

    • It’s not a population problem, it’s a culture problem! If the refugees were from cultures which respect human rights and they were happy to embrace European culture and had job skills, very few people would complain. But that is not the case. Only a minority of Muslims and a minority of ‘refugees’ from North Africa fulfill those requirements.

      Most Muslims would prefer to live under Sharia Law! Allowing people to settle whose beliefs mandate that you change to their ways is suicidal.

      Europe already has enough problems with its Post-Modern, Politically Correct elites and left-wing nutcases who want to destroy everything they can get their hands on, and have now teamed up with the non-European cultures which despise us! Allowing more Muslims in will make it all the harder for the little good that remains in Western culture to survive.

      • Couldn’t have put it better myself. Cultures are precious – even our own Western European cultures – which deserve to continue.

  3. Mr Orban (the Hungarian pm) must have read Fjordman. Orban seems the only leader who does understand that this migration insanity will only import stupidity,madness and islam into Europe.

  4. Paul Ehrlich advised curtailing immigration of high birth-rate cultures a half-century ago.

  5. Right! There’s also what I call “the breadcromb effect”. You start feeding pigions in the park, by throwing bread to them. Then more come along-throw more bread–yet more come around. You can never feed all of them.

    “I don’t know if faith can move mountains; but I’ve seen what it can do to buildings”. from the web.

  6. Convert, die or become dhimmi under sharia

    All ignorant individuals welcoming these “refugees”/invaders should look into what happened to the Christian lands in the Middle East.

    What was Syria like 1 400 years ago? What was the culture of Aleppo and Damascus? Why are they no longer attractive cultural centers?

    What do today’s ignorant islamophiles think will happen to modern Christian lands that are being invaded by hordes of muslims, followers of the same death & destruction cult as the invaders of Aleppo and Damascus? Are all these ignorants ready to convert, or stay future minority dhimmis?

    Do they even know that under sharia they will have these three options?

    • Look back a few decades when Lebanon was the Switzerland of the middle east, until ‘the followers of the teachings of the prophet’ overwhelmed it with their ‘culture’.

  7. Well remember that at the same time that people are coming into the world, they are leaving it as well. Right now the world death rate is 108 per minute…some countries are trying to increase that number by rattling nuclear swords.

  8. Forty years ago it was permitted to speak of overpopulation. Now that the source of population increase is in the third world it has become a forbidden topic. The greatest environmental crime is not that of carbon caused global warming. It is the displacement of those peoples who have responsibly curbed their numbers by those who have not. And if anyone even dares raise an objection, however mild, to mass third world migration the elites will demonize him or her; think Donald Trump or Ann Coulter.

  9. I think I will move to Kauai – last of the Hawaian Islands. Too far for the Muzzies or the Central Americanos to reach by swimming or by rowboat.

  10. Picture yourself in a lifeboat that has a rated capacity of 50 souls. You are floating in the middle of the ocean and have 60 souls on board. There are more people all around you treading water. How many should you pick up? Will you be soft-hearted to the point of sinking the boat and drowning everyone?

    Europe is such a lifeboat. The United States is more of an ocean liner, but I hear that they have been sunk before.

    The video listed below was made in 2010. It is more pertinent today.

  11. I don’t get it.

    The vast majority of the migrant-invaders curently imposing themselves on Europe are Muslims, and I am pretty sure that if questioned the vast majority of that vast majority would consider themselves fully committed to Islam, unashamedly.

    Yet curiously, instead of heading in the direction of that which is closest to their hearts, ‘Muslims fleeing persecution’ almost always run in the direction of the ‘kuffar’, the ‘infidel’ – never towards Mecca and saudi Arabia.

    Funny that, isn’t it?

    If you were ‘fleeing persecution’, other things being equal, you’d flee towards that with which you were most familiar. Wouldn’t you? Yet when Muslims ‘flee persecution’ they invariably run Westward – even the most fervent of them. Never towards Mecca and Saudi Arabia.

    How does one explain that?

    In the context of ‘fleeing persecution’ it doesn’t make sense. Were I ‘fleeing persection’, other things being equal, I’d make for those closest to me.

    And it doesn’t make sense because that’s not what’s happening. These people are invading the West not ‘fleeing persecution’ – if they were fleeing they’d flee towards Islam not away from it. They’re heading in our direction because they’ve been encouraged to do so by the West’s political, social, and media elite who in their determination to hang on to power come what may intend to use them as a weapon for the subjugation and ultimate destruction of Western peoples. The traitor Tony Blair admitted as much when he was British Prime Minister – he did all he could to encourage mass third world so as to ‘rub the right’s noses in diversity’.

    • I believe it is merely another aspect of demographic jihad. Just as there are groups who transport large numbers of illegal aliens from Guatemala, Honduras, and Southern Mexico to our borders here in America, to assist them in crossing into our country, I have little doubt that the islamic countries (including Turkey) are assisting these hordes of islamic “refugees” in flooding Europe, in order to complete the destruction begun by the elite who control the various governments of the European Union.

      Those countries – such as Hungary – who wish to survive will close their borders. The devastation wrought by the invading islamics in Europe will be even more destructive than that which we will face in America from Hispanic invaders. Of course, with our own President enabling the movement of large numbers of Somalians and other African islamics into our cities as well, it won’t be long before we experience the same problems as Europe is now suffering.

      • Can you imagine being the owner of an inflatable small boat business in Turkey? You would be a millionaire by now…
        How many do you think the Turkish gov’t has bought and handed out to smugglers??? My guess is thousands.

    • Excellent response! So excellent, that I quoted you verbatim in Post #8 at the following thread on Free Republic:

      There is only one proper definition for what we see going on – it is an invasion. Only 1/3 of the “refugees” are women and children – most of the rest are young males. I shudder for Europe (and, being Jewish, I don’t really have very positive feelings toward Europe – but it is the cradle of Western Civilization, and there are hundreds of millions of decent people there who are about to have their lives turned upside down). Hopefully, more countries will be like Hungary and Poland, and will tell the UN, the rest of the EU and the refugees to take a hike SOMEWHERE ELSE.

  12. In some respects, this African population/migration problem is of our own making. For most of my life, I have seen TV commercials asking for donations to feed starving Africans. Many Western governments and charities have provided food and basic medical care (antibiotics, dewormers), thereby allowing African populations to grow beyond their ability to support themselves. However, what cannot go on forever, won’t. The West cannot continue to feed Africa, and bringing Africa en mass to the West will quickly lead to the collapse to the West.

    • The west is collapsing now. It seems to have lost the will to proactively do anything. A bit like the USA and the border with Mexico and everywhere else. To guess what outcomes this creates surely is not that difficult?

  13. A bit off topic, but still relevant-

    Does anyone have good, fairly balanced sources for body counts and descriptions of Muslim atrocities from 600 AD through WWI? I was looking at Wikipedia to get started, but I couldn’t find much for say, the Muslim conquest of North Africa.

    I’m curious because I’m locked in a debate with a co-worker who is otherwise a decent fellow. He has swallowed the kitman that the Crusaders were monsters who flooded the deserts with the blood of women and children while living under the Muslim invaders wasn’t so bad because you, “…just had to pay a little more tax.”

    Unbelievable, particularly coming from someone who was an active duty Marine in Afghan and Iraq, and regularly takes shots at the Afghan custom of the ‘dancing boys.’

    • No idea but asking here is a good idea. I suggest you contact folks or make comments at other counterjihad websites, e.g. – also get in touch with organizations like Act! for America as they might be able to help you.

      Finally I hope you will not limit yourself with the information by using it only to enlighten your co-worker. Write up what you learn and share it with various websites/organizations.

      • Ask him about his experience in foreign wars. Listen. If you have never served you only have an idea. It is very common for vets to have picked up some of the foreign culture’s version of ‘things’ and often times you get to know and like local people you interact with daily. The situation is so fluid now that I think very soon he may start to question his sources and become a wanna be Crusader. You can run but you can’t from what is coming down the pike. I imagine.

    • There are 3 sources I can recommend.

      1. Fregosi’s book “Jihad in the West”. It is significant that a) the first book written on this topic should be by a historian who was not an academic b) that the publisher who commissioned it withdrew, when he & Fregosi got death threats as soon as muslims heard the book was planned.

      2. You can look at the timelines on 4F

      3. You could use Bill Warner’s video, which compares the 548 muslim Crusades, vs the 9 christian Crusades which followed the attacks by muslims.

  14. We know that not all the refugee immigrants are Muslim. Some may be Christian, animist, or whatever.

    Fjordman says the problem must be “solved” at the local level. What does “solved” mean? It can’t mean that people are well-fed and have economic opportunities. Ultimately, it means that the prospective immigrants will have to remain in situations where there is not enough food for them, or they may be killed in one of the uncountable wars or massacres that take place in the low-development, high-birth countries.

    Funny enough, it was the importation of technology, medicine, and food from the northern countries that allowed the exponential increase of populations. Prior to that, the survival rate of babies and infants was very low.

    The fact is this: the people in the West will have to steel themselves to the idea that they cannot and should not save the hundreds of millions of people who, left to their own devices, will die of starvation or disease. The people in Africa are simply too ignorant and stupid to use, or even understand, birth control and disease prevention. The only feasible solution for the West is to seal them in, and let nature take its course.

    Allowing the kinds of migrations described by Fjordman is not a solution, for either the immigrants or for us. It simply kicks the can down the road a generation or two (speaking optimistically) until the resources and infrastructure of the West are destroyed, and every population on earth can enjoy death by disease and starvation.

    • African and Middle East governments have been able to skim off funds from aid efforts and transfer the burden of population increase to Europeans. Nothing has been demanded of them except (1) please take these millions of dollars/euros and (2) don’t call us names.

      We don’t demand or exhibit any toughness of our own on the problems dumped off on us. But it is passed time for us to summon up the mental toughness, if to accomplish nothing else but interdict, let alone punish.

      These third-world governments deal with population as we do with deficit spending. Obama almost had to be restrained by Reggie Love to keep him from sending troops to Syria, which would have had to have been financed by Chinese and Japanese bond purchases. Those other governments are similarly out of touch. No hard decisions to be made in this century. None at all.

      • Dear Bunny,
        I think you forget the most important part of the equation:
        We will continue to allow an offload of your surplus population, allowing stability in your region, as long as you keep the oil and gas flowing…
        Check out “Eurabia” for further elucidation.
        To this day I don’t understand why Europe and the U.S. decided to wreck the country of Libya.
        That is absolutely on us.

    • ” The people in Africa are simply too ignorant and stupid to use, or even understand, birth control and disease prevention. The only feasible solution for the West is to seal them in, and let nature take its course.”

      Israel was recently accused of “sterilizing” African immigrants. An Israeli spokesman stated that when given the choice of long term (6 mos- 1 yr) of birth control by injection vs. pills or condom, the majority of African women wanted the injection SO THEIR HUSBANDS WOULDN’T KNOW!

      It sounds to me like the women understand the problem. Their husbands, not so much…

    • Take a bow Ron, well said!

      The whole situation admirably explained by Takuan Seiyo’s video at the end of these comments.

  15. If you love death and payback you have a very bright future. The combined disunited Eurotide is setting up the killing fields as we dance. No refuge anywhere for the losers. Stalin would understand?

  16. fjordman is right. The problem must be solved at the local level. Solved means “Balance” has been achieved for person. The natural forces of nature will dictate the terms only WE may not be around. The knowing will look for it in their lives and will it. The individual is the ultimate example of the need for balance. Two hemispheres, two eyes, two hands,etc. The lesson that should give us is the need for economic balance. #PARITY.

  17. Does anyone else see this as a prime opportunity for Russia to pull Eastern Europe fully back into its orbit? Take for instance the opprobrium hurled at Hungary and the Czech Republic for their strident opposition to these “refugees.” If the EU attempts to punish these countries economically, an opportunistic Russia could step in as the alternative economic playmate.

  18. One of the many very good articles by Fjordman. The current migrations into Europe are, in many ways, much more problematic that the ones that occurred 15 centuries ago and which ended the existence of the Western-Roman Empire. Apart from the obvious differences, like extra challenges concerning pollution, overpopulation and mass transport that the current migrations pose, we also face the difference that the Nordic-Germanic, Balto-Slavonic and Uralic-Altaic nations that aspired to settle within the borders of the Roman Empire, had a great admiration for Roman culture, and wanted to learn from, adapt to and even assimilate into this Roman culture a.s.a.p. The Roman Empire collapsed politically, but the values and cultural heritage of the Romans, incl, Roman Law, Classical Humanism and Christianity (which the Roman Empire had adopted a century earlier), survived and even developed further, thanks to the willingness of these “Barbarians” to integrate this heritage into their own value system. In addition, the Germanic, Balto-Slavonic and Uralic-Altaic nations all had a strong connection to the forces of nature and the Spiritual Worlds, and they possessed intrinsic spiritual cores that were orientated on the future of Mankind. Also today, they still possess these qualities. The Nordic-Germanic nations developed the psychological-ethical concept of Individuality, Equality (alsoe between the sexes) and Conscience (German “Gewissen”). The Balto-Slavonic nations are busy developing the psychological-ethical concepts of Compassion, Community and Solidarity. Up to now these terms are only empty words, often abused by wicked left-winged politicians and pseudo-intellectuals, but in the future, these terms will become real living powers, thanks to the Balto-Slavonic nations. The Uralic-Altaic nations, who belong to the same spiritual group as the Mongolians and the Native Americans, will after that develop a reconnection to the Great Cosmic Spirit, whose seeds are is currently preserved in apparently atavistic traditions we call “shamanism”.
    Contrast these three great spiritual imputs into Mankind’s development with the destructive and reactionary forces of Islam. This is a satanic cult, expanded intto a world-conquering ideology, disguised as a religion. There is no future benevolent energy in this, only evil. Combine this with the disrespect its adherents have for our cultures and values, and we can only get frightened by the threat this poses, not only to our culture and values, but even to our lives and those of our children and grand-children. The left-winged politicians and pseudo-intellectuals who made this ethno-cultural suicide possible should be prosecuted and sentenced for genocide – on their own peoples!

Comments are closed.