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I have written several times before about the rapidly changing global demography, but sometimes a message needs to be repeated until it sinks in. Just ask Coca-Cola.
One of the most important mega-trends in the world today is the changing demographic balance between the world’s countries and regions. Roughly speaking, some of the most technologically advanced societies with a high level of economic performance have below replacement-level birth rates and an aging population. This applies not just to Europe and the Western world, but also to East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and China. At the same time, less successful peoples as measured by their technological level breed faster.
Those who have a doctrinal dedication to open borders and the (highly questionable) claim that all peoples and cultures are equal will present a simple solution to this dilemma: Just let the dysfunctional societies continue breeding and let them send their excess population to countries with lower birth rates. The East Asian countries have not yet succumbed to such pressures because their political elites actually care about the long-term preservation of their people and are not open-border fanatics. Western political elites, however, seem stubbornly wedded to a nearly religious belief in open borders at all costs.
The challenge is that many people from backward societies will bring with them their dysfunctional culture if they move to other countries in significant numbers. As a result, we now have large and growing Third World ghettos in cities across the Western world, riddled with all kinds of social problems. How long can this continue until the newly arrived immigrants have made Western countries just as dysfunctional as their home countries?
It is true that birth rates fluctuate and will not necessarily be the same fifty years from now as they are today. Even in some Muslim countries such as Iran, they are lower now than they were a few decades ago. Yet they are still higher than in virtually all European nations. This is not just true of the Middle East or the Islamic world, but also of other parts of the global South.
A report from 2013 predicted that sub-Saharan Africa would record the largest population growth between now and 2050. According to the Population Reference Bureau, the world’s poorest region will more than double in population, from 1.1 billion to 2.4 billion. The current population of the entire European Union is just over 500 million people. It is estimated that Africa’s population will grow by more than twice that much, in two generations. Where are these people supposed to live? Will they have water, food and work at home? If not, where will they go next?
Many of them may remain in Africa. Yet if merely 8% of them were to leave the continent, that would amount to more than 100 million Africans departing Africa in just a few decades. If just 4-5% of Africa’s projected population growth in the coming 35 years were to head for Europe, Europe would be expected to absorb an African population the size of Poland or Spain in a relatively short period. This flood has already begun.
Western governments and human rights organizations seem to treat the huge influx of illegal immigrants as some kind of natural disaster, something that will pass. It is not, and it will not. It is an ongoing process, which keeps getting worse and worse. Europe’s misfortune is that it is situated right at the doorstep of the world’s most dysfunctional continent — Africa — and the world’s most dysfunctional cultural sphere, the Islamic world.
The continent of Africa today houses a population larger than that of the continent of Europe. This has not happened for thousands of years. Even now, African and Muslim illegal immigrants are fleeing from their own failed societies to get into Europe, sometimes risking their lives by literally swimming to European shores.
In August 2014, local police stations do not have the resources to identify the many illegal immigrants, mainly from sub-Saharan Africa and the Islamic world, who cross the Strait of Gibraltar in small inflatable boats headed for Spain and Europe. For 40,000 dirhams (4,000 euros) paid to mafias, illegal immigrants can even ride on powerful water scooters that take barely 15 minutes to cover the distance from Morocco to the Spanish mainland. They pay less if they smuggle drugs for the mafias. At the same time, Spanish public debt passed a record 1 trillion euros and was expected to reach 100% of GDP, a figure that Spain had not seen in a century.
According to a report by UNICEF from 2014, Africa will experience a continuation of its current population explosion in the coming generations. By 2050, four out of ten of the world’s children could be an African. In the same period, the number of people in Africa will at least double. According to this report, two billion children will be born in Africa over the next 35 years. A billion people on the continent are expected to be under eighteen by 2050. If present trends continue, Africa could even surpass Asia to become the most populous continent on the planet during the course of this century. However, it is questionable whether Africa would actually be capable of sustaining such a large population.
Of course, we cannot predict the future with 100% certainty. Some projections indicate that the world’s population will continue to grow until it reaches 9-10 billion people. Others forecast it will not peak until it reaches 12 billion people, or even 15 billion or more. Yet all realistic population projections I have seen indicate that, barring a worldwide outbreak of a killer virus or some other global disaster, the world will continue to grow, adding several billion more people this century. Much of this growth will be concentrated in countries and societies that are technologically backward and which are already today riddled with social problems.
Egypt saw its population rise by 2 million in one year between 2013 and 2014, or 1 million in just six months. Its population hit 87 million in August 2014, the country’s census authority announced. The population growth of a single Arab country in less than three years is thus in principle enough to overwhelm a nation the size of Norway, Denmark or Finland.
Egypt is the most populous country in the Arabic-speaking world. In 1882, it had some 6.7 million inhabitants. Yes, that was the entire country, much less than what the city of Cairo alone holds today. In 1897, just over a century ago, its population was about 9.7 million. That is virtually the same as Sweden housed in 2014. In 1947, the population of Egypt was 19 million people. In 1986 it was 48 million; in 1996, 59 million. Forecasters predict that Egypt could have as many as 137 million people in 2050, up from fewer than 7 million in 1882.
Taken together, by 2014 all of the Scandinavian and Nordic countries — Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland —had a total population of about 26 million people. This already includes quite a few recent immigrants who did not live in these countries 40 years earlier. Egypt’s population grew by over 28 million people from the middle of the 1990s until 2014. This means that the population growth in a single Arab country in less than one generation is greater than the total population of all of the Nordic countries put together.
I have lived and studied in Egypt. Most of the country is sparsely populated desert. There could soon be 100 million people or more crammed into the Nile valley and surrounding areas. Egypt was a major source of grain in the Roman Empire, yet today it can barely feed itself. Despite this, the population continues to boom, contributing to growing political instability.
It is well-documented that this immigration from technologically backward societies is very costly for the receiving countries, measured in both direct and indirect ways. Meanwhile, many European countries themselves now face serious economic problems and high levels of debt. Native Europeans are currently borrowing from the Chinese and others to spend money that they don’t have paying Muslims, Africans and the rest of the global South to colonize their countries and push them out of their historic homelands.
Surely, this must be the white privilege they keep talking about in American universities these days.
For a complete archive of Fjordman’s writings, see the multi-index listing in the Fjordman Files.
Again, I respectfully disagree with your linear extrapolations applied to a chaotic system. There is widespread agreement that the global population will begin to implode in a noticeable way at mid-century. I wish I were going to be here to see it.
On our sidebar, you can see Sir Gregory Copley’s explanation:
UnCivilization: Urban Geopolitics in a Time of Chaos.
Then there is Spengler’s take on it, here:
How Civilizations Die: (And Why Islam Is Dying Too)
And here’s an old one from David Brooks at the NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/opinion/brooks-the-fertility-implosion.html?_r=3&ref=opinion&
Usually, high religious observance and low income go along with high birthrates. But, according to the United States Census Bureau, Iran now has a similar birth rate to New England — which is the least fertile region in the U.S.
The speed of the change is breathtaking. A woman in Oman today has 5.6 fewer babies than a woman in Oman 30 years ago. Morocco, Syria and Saudi Arabia have seen fertility-rate declines of nearly 60 percent, and in Iran it’s more than 70 percent. These are among the fastest declines in recorded history.
The Iranian regime is aware of how the rapidly aging population and the lack of young people entering the work force could lead to long-term decline. But there’s not much they have been able to do about it. Maybe Iranians are pessimistic about the future. Maybe Iranian parents just want smaller families.
And maybe it’s just despair. The worse the “news” gets, and the more instantaneous its spread, the more the oligarchies bleed everyone, the more often doom-and-gloom becomes a trickle-down “consensus”, the less inclined are people to “breed”.
We’re seeing a terminal situation and thinking it will simply be more of the same. But it won’t. The UN believes in the coming implosion:
http://esa.un.org/wpp/documentation/pdf/WPP2010_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf –
…and China has decided the time for one-child families is over. They are worried about what happens when all those single males in the cohort born in the last fifty years or so die off. They will die childless because there aren’t enough women to go around. Same with India. In fact, if India and China are ever tempted to turn bellicose toward one another, it will largely be the extravagant amount of cannon fodder they both possess…
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This is a charged subject, though not as much as the slowly crumbling Anthropogenic Global Warming debate. However, it is equally confusing because, again, we’re working with fungible numbers.
Meanwhile, your cohort needs to get to work making babies…Though with Scandinavian women eyeing world domination by the fair sex, probably a waste of time to go a-hunting in your neck of the woods. I suggest looking further abroad – say one of the Asian countries known for the high IQ of its people.
My cousin is a beautiful Anglo-Asian girl who has a high tech job in the Northwest here. She’s adopted, but the adoptive parents got…umm, they have her papers proving her blood lines…? Something like that. Though with American “white” people the mix of genetic material is unfathomable. Just ask the Baron to list his (known) antecedents.
I forgot to mention the spread of diseases, old and new. Look in last night’s news feed
https://gatesofvienna.net/2014/08/gates-of-vienna-news-feed-8202014/
under the sub-Saharan news section for the current ebola updates. It will get worse.
There is talk in the paranoid sites that this is the doing of the U.S. in its applied application testing for bio-terror — this current outbreak just being a practice run.
However, the death wish religion has inherited some of those “imaginary” WMD that Saddam developed — the very same ones the Left said Bush lied about, the very same ones Saddam used first against Iran and then as practice on the Kurds — before he sent them in a real hurry for safe-keeping to Syria. I pray they’ve all deteriorated by now but if not, then the Death Wish Warriors wouldn’t be averse to using them indiscriminately.
In other words, as the chaos continues swirling, look for not only the Four Horsemen to come riding out of the fog, but also for a huge contingent (so to speak) of Unintended Consequences riding over the horizon ahead of them.
There are far too many Unknown Unknowns to even begin to predict populations continuing to rise…
But nevertheless , they still do !
I think that Fjordman does not necessarily imply that the populatioin will continue to rise — and you are right that it won’t. He has simply cut short before going to Part 2, which is what you invoked as the “Four Horsemen.” Explaining which four it will be and why will simply put one in the Rolodex of the neue-Stasi regime, forever joined-in-the-hip in their and the MSM’s mythology with Anders Breivik and Mein Kampf.
GoV tasted that medicine with PJ Media, I tasted it with New American Review and others, F must have tasted it multiple times. Ann Barnhardt defied the system to the bitter end; now she lives in a truck and cleans floors for a living.
Essentially, the closer we are to the four’s galloping through our street, the more adamant the regime is in suppressing any consciousness of the inevitable catastrophic consequences of its 50 years of prima facie madness, and the greater the fear among the publishing gatekeepers of content that could prepare Everyman for what’s coming.
.
I get Miss Barnhardt. I left a high-stress corrupt govt job running herd on foster children and foster homes. It was gruesome…I knew I never, ever wanted to go back to the “helping professions” again, marking time till I retired.
Cleaning houses and offices was a relief for a very long time. But I worked too many hours. As the B said, I had to “do every good thing I think of”…
I fear for her future health though. I found cleaning jobs to be restful – no paperwork but paper towels, no strange supervisors, no seriously dysfunctional clients, etc. Or rather, I didn’t have to straighten out their lives, just organize their closets.
More money per hour than social work, but it is lonely and if you invest too much time on any one family ,you tend to end up as the trash can for the scapegoats…the very wealthy have their own set of issues indeed.
Yes, Fjordman did stop with the present numbers but I inferred from what he said about the increases tht he thought overpopulation would be an ongoing, worsening problem. This coming implosion is a big unknown. It could be boon or blessing and there’s no way to tell…yet.
There is a classic experiment in a social psy discipline called proxemics — i.e. how space affects behavior. You put one rat in a cage, take good care of him and the critter is happy. Then you add another one– often fights result but eventually some mainly peaceful status quo is attained.
But then you add another one, and then another, and so on — all the while making sure that there is sufficient food, water, exercise, air, light etc. But no matter what you do, just the action of adding critters to the same space eventually results in bloody warfare, unto death.
Despite the attrition, the population grows, as you keep adding to it. Eventually, the rats start dying from lack of space per se and the sheer depression resulting from it.
Read ‘The Camp of the Saints’ to experience what could happen in the near future.
“Camp of The Saints” IS happening as we speak. Boatloads of Africans keep arriving at the shores of Italy
Another factor which tends to makes Mr. Fjordman’s numbers somewhat unduly pessimistic is that during this, the great Age of Pathos, international aid to corrupt regimes is directed based on how pathetic each nation’s plight is.
Thus, there is a great incentive provided to a set of natural-born liars and cheaters to overstate the total population of, and incidence of poverty in, their respective countries.
Tinpot dictators who wish to remain upwardly-mobile in their respective roles as leaders of unreformed Third World nations, need to boost external income by stating higher and higher numbers in each passing decade. They cannot simply extract income from domestic sources within their economically-challenged lands.
Well actually Europe as a whole has 742 million populous
and if you take into the account of the Caucasian race European,
Russian, European American, European Australian, European New-Zealander, European Latin American. there’s 1 billion Caucasian European white’s already of course if you exclude the [epithets]
but of course those types of groups are remnants to the Caucasian white populous, there barely non existant.
How old are those 742 million in Europe and the other places you mentioned?
What is the median age?
Without that information it’s simply making fungible fudge with numbers.
Hans Rosling har foredratt om dette bl.a på TED.COM. Har du avstemt dine tall med hans?
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Note from Admin:
No foreign language comments, please. If you can read it, surely you can write it? For those of our readers with no need to know Scandinavian languages, here’s the Googlish:
Hans Rosling has been dragged about this proposal is TED.COM. Have you tuned your numbers with his?
To the commenter: a link please?? This isn’t a forum, as I’m sure you know.
It’s called google and type in Europe, like wow you guys are
[epithets] in here and Dymphna its not fudge you [epithet].
No, I don’t type in Google, that’s the job for the person seeking information or trying to pass some on. Others aren’t likely to go thru the trouble of hunting it down, but if the commenter leaves a link and a snip of material, it more often ends in a spread of distributed information among everyone reading it.
Like wow, man. Name-calling as a form of communication stopped after grade school.
“Is that the best you can do?” — to borrow my brother’s way of handling obnoxious people.
Sen. Ron Johnson: Jihadists Coming to US if Obama Doesn’t Act
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Ron-Johnson-ISIS-United-States/2014/08/21/id/590073/?ns_mail_uid=71702528&ns_mail_job=1582534_08212014&promo_code=nfb4cjo9
All western politicians do act: They are inviting muslims and building them mosques and providing them with welfare money so that they will have time to train for ummah and facilitate surrendering to the Western Caliphate.
Western politicians are determined not to change this lethal course.
“Western politicians are determined not to change this lethal course.” Of course not. Their position of authority and that of the rest of the establishment is founded on the promotion and maintenance of the globalist, pro-minority, anti-white, way of viewing the world. If they change course they’re doomed.
The problem for them though is that the egalitarian paradigm, which they use to legitimise themselves and to silence the opposition, is finding it ever harder to answer the questions asked of it. It is no longer as convincing as it once was – a predicament shared by the West’s ruling elites.
I think it’s called being hoist by your own patard.
What is missing from this discussion is the opportunity to vote. I understand that voter turn out in the UK especially is very low. I, for one, vote in every election that I am allowed. Hell, I even vote for the library budget and the fire chief!
It has seemed to me for a long time that if the UK wanted to stop the slide into Islamic supremism that members of UKIP and Torys would go door to door and get the vote out. What I find interesting about this is that I like to vote… It is a community activity, I get to see my neighbors and go to a central place in my community. Maybe you should hold bake sales or something like that to get the decent people out to the polls.
Until you bring up the participation in the voting process grievance mongers will win.
OT: Would someone please define “Sub-Saharan Africa” for me?
Babs, if you go to Google maps and put that in your search string, you’ll find it. or google the same phrase with wiki after it and you’ll have more than you’d want to know. In fact, the wikis usually have maps on the sidebars which you can enlarge.
I got really interested in geography when reading Sir Gregory Copley’s first book on geo-energy. The Silk Route? The disputed border between Denmark and Germany? Blue water vs littoral navies? Who knew?
I finally got a full map rather than a globe – the small print is too hard on my eyes. I could use one of those lighted ones, but they’re too pricey…
did you know there is a discipline called Geographical Anthropology – or maybe it’s vice versa?
Here’s Copley’s 2012 book, a pdf but VERY easy to navigate:
http://www.artofvictory.com/PDFs/Energy%20Security%202.0%20PDF%20Editi..pdf
If you have a lot of paper, you could even print it out – it’s not going to be out of date for a long time. I was lucky: the b came home from a conference in D.C. and it was with his stuff. It lay around for months until one day, confined to bed, I picked it up. Really wow. He perfectly predicted what would happen to Australia if they let the socialists pass that poverty-inducing carbon tax. And it came to pass. But Ozzies are smart: they kicked out Gillian and iirc correctly have rescinded that bill.
There’s a recent study floating around that says our vote doesn’t matter at all. I thought I’d saved the URL – it’s appearing in a number of places- an eye opener that someone has come out and said it, i.e., it’s a waste of time except at the local level.
That’s harsh but I suspect it;s true. The younger generation is walking away. No riots, but no engagement.
It matters to keep the Democrats from cheating in the targeted swing states (with phony voter registrations, busloads of aliens sent from early voting location to early voting location, etc.), and to get the vote out in those states.
In the states that are solidly for one major-party presidential candidate or the other, your vote individually does not matter in that race. But if enough people in your party think that way and stay home, it will throw the state into the swing column.
The battle in the solid states is earlier, at the primary level. That is the level where I think the Establishment really has it sewed up, much more so than in the general election.
The advantage the Democrats have is that they are a professional party with infrastructure and expertise at polling, get out the vote drives, etc. And they work year-round, every year, to achieve success in the elections.
The Republicans, by contrast, are amateurs whose party leaders hire as their consultants either fantasists or Establishment tools (which are not easy to distinguish from one another) to provide them with professional advice.
The rank-and-file Republicans are citizens with competitive jobs in the private sector, and families to raise, and therefore have but limited time to devote to the process outside of the heat of the election season.
Yes, I have heard that too that voting is less and less important. Having read one of these essays my answer is that if you swamp the vote the politicians can’t ignore you.
People in the western world HAVE to get the vote out!
If you want to keep your liberty, your freedom and your ability to direct your country, you must vote.
I live in a very blue state. In fact, every single elected representative for me all the way from town council to the President of the US is blue. I still vote… Politicians need to know that there are people out here that do not agree with their policies.
In the case of the UK if people would turn out at the polls I think they could make a real difference.
Dymphna: To be perfectly honest, I personally do not think the global population will peak at 15 billion in this century. I also do not truly believe that Africa will surpass Asia as the most populous continent. This is simply not sustainable. Africans need technological know-how and aid from Europeans and Asians. Without that, the inflated population of Africa could implode.
“Aid?” We don’t give smart aid, we just line the pockets of corrupt leaders. Kool aid.
People are complaining about the futility of giving when the result is more chaos. And as the banksters continue to impoverish us, as state debt continues to spiral,this aid will perforce diminish. ISIS and Boko Haram, etc, will push this along. For a while they will be sustained by what they can steal and what the CIA gives, but that’s going to stop at some point as the US becomes more and more a poor banana republic…
The aid might come from quasi-governmental forms, say the billionaires or their foundations – Gates, et al – but it won’t basically change anything because it will be bandaids on a hopelessly corrupt system. You have only to see what Gates is doing in his own country with the regimented school curriculum that everyone hates to know that “aid” doesn’t mean authentic help, just well-intentioned garbage that makes things worse.
And look at Norway’s aid to Hamas. That’s just evil.
The question, like with immigration, is not what Africa needs but what we need. By “aiding” beyond a certain limit we are upsetting the human ecology and ensuring that the consequences of our good intentions are likely to be far worse — to the Africans — (e.g. uncontainble population growth) than the good we think we have done with our aid.
I do understand the moral obligation of once-colonial countries like Great Britain, France and Belgium, but there is a case to be made that it has been fulfilled a long time ago — and frittered on the African side. And Scandinavian countries, US etc, have no business sticking their noses there at all .
Ann Coulter had a relevant column recently: http://townhall.com/columnists/anncoulter/2014/08/06/ebola-docs-condition-downgraded-to-idiotic-n1875654/page/full
Sidelight: Sub-Saharan Africa is and has been both a geographical description and a handy euphemism for Black Africa. It reminds me of a die-hard liberal faculty member I knew who would lie in wait for the Director of Admissions to announce the “diversity” numbers for the incoming class. When he arrived at “students of color.” this fellow would inevitably raise his hand and ask: “How many of them are black?’ And thus uncovered the fact that the actual majority of “students of color” were Asian.
@Takuan Seiyo,
That rattus proxemics is a nasty little experiment all sorts of deviances start to occur before the bloody grand finale.
Immigrants might be welcome if there were frontiers to populate, or expanding industries in need of semi- and un-skilled labor, but this is not the case.
These people are simply coming to Europe for “free stuff” and will contribute nothing.
“And look at Norway’s aid to Hamas. That’s just evil.”
Why is Norway giving aid to Hamas, in the first place?
Who initiated it? When?
What does Norway get in return?
And the Norwegians, what’s in it for them?
Psychologically they are not giving aid to Hamas, they are self-righteously mitigating their own self-loathing.
These self-loathers would walk past their own kin begging on the street to hand over millions of $ to what in their mind-set is a righteous ideology that one day will put them out of their misery.
Their madness transcends even the tensions and extremes of the political realm.
In the same way the British Government gave £355 million in aid to Pakistan, for which largesse they don’t even get an extradition treaty. Yet this government wont subsidize the LAST 2 deep coal mines in the U.K., in Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire, for less than half that amount. To enable them to remain open and retain mining expertise, skills and technological development in this country.
The ice bucket challenge – a self-righteous public act of humiliation by pouring a cold bucket of water over your head, metaphorically an act of self decapitation – the West embraces the concept of public beheading.
Great title!
Out of Africa, is that the African business model since the beginning of times? Where are the African brains that could make something of that rich continent today? Are Africans doomed to depend on handouts from less sun burnt people – “the whites”, as they see Europeans, and probably also other peoples from the Northern hemisphere – who have evolved up to a certain stage of thinking, working and creating wealth?
Where are the brains that could help Africans develop Africa, make them work, and benefit from it at the same time? China, only?
Africans built the Pyramids while you Scandinavians where doing…. What exactly were you people doing at that time?
“There’ll Be Bluebirds Over
The White Cliffs of Dover…”
Vera Lynn (1942)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAaxkAgVkHQ
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2726323/Back-Door-Britain-REVEALED-The-secret-route-taking-African-migrants-Libya-Calais-days-waved-Italian-French-police.html
“There’ll be love and laughter
And peace ever after
Tomorrow
When the world is
Free”
“And Jimmy will go to sleep
In his own little room again”
“There’ll be bluebirds over
The white cliffs of Dover
Tomorrow
Just you wait
And see”
(….) When is tomorrow?