Snaphanen has posted some interesting figures today on the growth of the Muslim population in Sweden:
1970 1,000 1980 30,000 1985 50,000 1988 100,000 1990 120,000 1992 140,000 1994 160,000 1996 200,000 1998 250,000 2000 325,000 2005 375,000 2006 400,000
Table 1. Estimated Muslim population (1970-2006) [i Sverige]
Source: Sander and Larsson
When I looked at those figures, my natural inclination was to plot them in a graph. Here’s the result:
At first glance this graph shows a steady growth, which may or may not be alarming to the average Swede. However, that growth appears to be a simple linear trend, with the figures rising in more or less a straight line.
But this graph is deceptive. The number of years between successive population figures is much greater in the earlier part of the table than it is for the more recent figures. To make it easier to see the trend in the graph, I added the missing years and inserted the estimated population as a standard proportional interpolation. That makes the graph look quite different:
– – – – – – – – –
The revised graph does not show a linear trend. It’s too early to tell for sure, but that looks like an exponential curve to me. Here’s an example of an exponential growth curve:
The rectangle marked in blue represents the period shown in the second population graph. As you can see, in the coming years the curve rapidly steepens.
An exponential increase means that the population doubles within a certain fixed period. Suppose you started at 1980 with 30,000 (the same figure as in the actual statistics) and doubled it every 6.7 years. The resulting population table would look like this:
These figures come close to the actual numbers listed since 1980. If the trend continues, since the population of Sweden in 2007 is estimated to be between 9 and 10 million people, within about thirty-five years there will be more Muslims than “persons of Swedish origin” in the country. And this is assuming that there is no further emigration from Sweden of the native population.
Obviously, the future demographics will not really look like this. Even if the rate of increase actually is linear, and not exponential, something will change — either Sweden will resist further Islamization, and the Muslim population will stabilize at a lower level, or Sweden will succumb. In the latter case the numbers will stabilize at a population which can be supported by a slave-based feudal economy within the land area available.
The population fluctuations for any species in a real ecosystem exhibit chaotic characteristics. In the typical case, there is an initial slow start, with an exponential growth curve causing an explosive increase after a certain amount of time. Then the limiting factors kick in — exhaustion of the food supply, an increase in natural predators, disease through overcrowding, and so on. After that, the population crashes, and the process begins all over again with the survivors forming the nucleus of a new population explosion. The resulting cycles, being chaotic in nature, are generally not predictable.
Other limitations on exponential growth may appear as a result of the way the data are defined. For example, consider the increase in illegitimate births in the United States. Over the last forty years or so the increase of illegitimacy has exhibited the characteristics of exponential growth. In recent years, however, that increase has slowed.
Is that because young Americans are becoming less promiscuous and more responsible? No; it’s because the proportion of illegitimate births, at least in certain subgroups, is approaching the natural limit of 100%.
Both examples illustrate the fact that an exponential growth trend cannot continue past the carrying capacity of the environment in which the growth takes place.
In Sweden’s case, the limiting factor which will define the county’s carrying capacity for Muslim immigration has not yet become apparent.