The Umma’s Involuted Border

 
The Bloody Borders ProjectA Bloody Borders Update

After my initial post on The Bloody Borders Project, a4g and other commenters suggested that I develop maps to illustrate the density of Muslim population as well as the terrorist attacks.

Since then I’ve been working on the Umma Maps, based on Muslim population data supplied by answers.com. The results are represented in the series of maps shown below.


All Islamic terror attacks since September 11, 2001
The Bloody Borders Project


The nature of the “bloody border” is astonishingly clear in this map. With the exceptions of Iraq and Afghanistan, the highest concentrations of terrorist attacks occur along the edges of the Umma, where it meets the areas of lower (but significant) Muslim population.

And now compare this map:


Islamic terror attacks in 2002
The Bloody Borders Project


With this map:


Islamic terror attacks in 2005
The Bloody Borders Project


You can see that the Coalition interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan have, from a systemic point of view, caused the border of the Umma to involute, to form fractal boundaries extending into what had been the heart of Islam.

It’s not just the American troops that bring this about — the arrival of new ideas and new political systems brings its own instability and generates the “bloody border” response. The political and social concepts introduced by the Coalition into the Umma are an extreme violation of fundamentalist Islamic tenets. Thus the hardcore zealots of the Umma are drawn in to oppose the introduction of what they see as dangerous and deadly memes.

Once again, the exceptions are interesting. China, Burma, Turkey, and the former Soviet republics in Central Asia seem to be exempt from the “bloody borders” principle.

The relative calm and Burma, China and the “Stans” may have one or more of these causes:

1. Repressive dictatorial governments that maintain a monopoly on violence, or

2. Official control of information flow so that news of attacks is lacking.

Turkey is a different matter. Has its military helped to keep a lid on Islamism? Has it exported its worst troublemakers to the Muslim ghettos of Eurabia? Commenters are invited to weigh in on this topic.

In fact, the relative calm in the center of the Umma may result more from the repressive nature of the governments of Islamic countries than in a peaceful utopian political culture based on the Shari’ah. The events in Iraq suggest that the different sects and subgroups of Islam would, if given the chance, have at each other until the last throat was cut.

In any case, Samuel Huntington was not making it up: there is a border and it is bloody. The border has lately become a fractal, and the unfolding events of the next few years should prove interesting indeed.



See the complete range of maps and information, including a new (smaller) animation, at The Bloody Borders Project.

A full table of information on Muslim populations is listed below.

Note: I am well aware that the differential regional breakdown of Muslim populations within countries, especially India, Russia, and China, is significant. I have in hand a database of Muslim population statistics within Indian states, but have not had time to utilize it yet in order to make a map.

If anybody can point me to reliable and complete data (i.e., every administrative district in the country must have a separate statistic) for other countries, please put the URL in the comments or send me an email, and I will collect data to use in future updates.

Data Source for Muslim Population Statistics

 Country Population 
Mus.
Muslim 
Population 
 Afghanistan 29,928,987  99.0 29,629,697 
 Albania 3,563,112  70.0 2,494,178 
 Algeria 32,531,853  99.0 32,206,534 
 Angola 11,190,786  1.0 111,907 
 Argentina 39,537,943  1.5 593,069 
 Armenia 2,982,904  2.0 59,658 
 Australia 20,090,437  1.5 301,356 
 Austria 8,184,691  4.7 384,680 
 Azerbaijan 7,911,974  93.4 7,389,783 
 Bahrain 688,345  85.0 585,093 
 Bangladesh 144,319,628  88.0 127,001,272 
 Belarus 10,300,483  0.5 51,502 
 Belgium 10,364,388  3.5 362,753 
 Belize 279,457  1.0 2,794 
 Benin 7,460,025  20.0 1,492,005 
 Bhutan 2,232,291  1.0 22,322 
 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4,025,476  40.0 1,610,190 
 Botswana 1,640,115  1.0 16,401 
 Brunei 372,361  67.0 249,481 
 Bulgaria 7,450,349  12.2 908,942 
 Burkina Faso 13,925,313  55.0 7,658,922 
 Burundi 6,370,609  10.0 637,060 
 Cambodia 13,607,069  3.5 476,247 
 Cameroon 16,380,005  20.0 3,276,001 
 Canada 32,805,041  2.0 656,100 
 Central African Republic 3,799,897  15.0 569,984 
 Chad 9,826,419  54.0 5,306,266 
 China 1,306,313,812  3.0 39,189,414 
 Comoros 671,247  99.0 664,534 
 Congo (Brazzaville) 3,039,126  2.0 60,782 
 Congo (Kinshasa) 60,085,004  10.0 6,008,500 
 Côte d’Ivoire 17,298,040  38.6 6,677,043 
 Croatia 4,495,904  1.3 58,446 
 Cyprus 780,133  18.0 140,423 
 Denmark 5,432,335  3.0 162,970 
 Djibouti 476,703  99.0 471,935 
 East Timor 1,040,880  4.0 41,635 
 Egypt 77,505,756  91.0 70,530,237 
 Eritrea 4,561,599  50.0 2,280,799 
 Estonia 1,332,893  0.8 10,000 
 Ethiopia 73,053,286  47.5 34,700,310 
 Fiji 893,354  7.0 62,534 
 France 60,656,178  7.5 4,549,213 
 Gabon 1,389,201  1.0 13,892 
 Gambia 1,593,256  90.0 1,433,930 
 Georgia 4,677,401  9.9 463,062 
 Germany 82,431,390  3.7 3,049,961 
 Ghana 21,029,853  16.0 3,364,776 
 Greece 10,668,354  2.8 300,000 
 Guinea 9,467,866  85.0 8,047,686 
 Guinea-Bissau 1,416,027  38.0 538,090 
 Guyana 765,283  10.0 76,528 
 Hungary 10,006,835  0.6 60,041 
 India 1,028,610,388  13.4 138,188,726 
 Indonesia 241,973,879  88.2 213,469,356 
 Iran 68,017,860  99.0 67,337,681 
 Iraq 26,074,906  97.0 25,292,658 
 Ireland 4,015,676  0.5 19,676 
 Israel 6,276,883  14.6 916,424 
 Italy 58,103,033  1.7 987,751 
 Jordan 5,759,732  95.0 5,471,745 
 Kazakhstan 15,185,844  47.0 7,137,346 
 Kenya 33,829,590  7.0 2,368,071 
 Kuwait 2,335,648  85.0 1,985,300 
 Kyrgyzstan 5,146,281  80.0 4,117,024 
 Laos 6,217,141  1.0 62,171 
 Lebanon 3,826,018  70.0 2,678,212 
 Lesotho 1,867,035  2.0 37,340 
 Liberia 3,482,211  20.0 696,442 
 Libya 5,765,563  97.0 5,592,596 
 Lithuania 3,596,617  0.6 21,579 
 Luxembourg 468,571  2.0 9,371 
 Macedonia 2,045,262  30.0 613,578 
 Madagascar 18,040,341  7.0 1,262,823 
 Malawi 12,158,924  20.0 2,431,784 
 Malaysia 23,953,136  60.4 14,467,694 
 Maldives 349,106  99.9 348,756 
 Mali 12,291,529  90.0 11,062,376 
 Mauritania 3,086,859  99.9 3,083,772 
 Mauritius 1,230,602  16.6 204,279 
 Mongolia 2,791,272  4.0 111,650 
 Morocco 32,725,847  98.7 32,300,410 
 Mozambique 19,406,703  20.0 3,881,340 
 Myanmar 42,909,464  4.0 1,716,378 
 Namibia 2,030,692  3.0 60,920 
 Nepal 27,676,547  4.2 1,162,414 
 Netherlands 16,407,491  6.0 984,449 
 Niger 11,665,937  90.0 10,499,343 
 Nigeria 128,771,988  50.0 64,385,994 
 Norway 4,593,041  1.6 73,488 
 Oman 3,001,583  99.0 2,971,567 
 Pakistan 162,419,946  96.3 156,491,617 
 Palestinian Territories 3,761,904  84.0 3,159,999 
 Philippines 87,857,473  5.0 4,392,873 
 Portugal 10,566,212  0.3 36,981 
 Qatar 863,051  95.0 819,898 
 Russia 143,420,309  15.0 21,513,046 
 Rwanda 8,440,820  4.6 388,277 
 Saudi Arabia 26,417,599  100.0 26,417,599 
 Senegal 11,126,832  94.0 10,459,222 
 Serbia and Montenegro 10,829,175  21.0 2,274,126 
 Seychelles 81,188  1.1 894 
 Sierra Leone 6,017,643  60.0 3,610,585 
 Singapore 4,425,720  16.0 708,115 
 Slovenia 2,011,070  2.5 50,276 
 Somalia 8,591,629  100.0 8,591,629 
 Somaliland 7,591,629  100.0 7,591,629 
 South Africa 44,344,136  1.5 665,162 
 Spain 40,341,462  2.5 1,008,536 
 Sri Lanka 20,064,776  7.0 1,404,534 
 Sudan 40,187,486  65.0 26,121,865 
 Suriname 438,144  22.0 96,391 
 Swaziland 1,173,900  1.0 11,739 
 Sweden 9,001,774  4.0 360,070 
 Switzerland 7,489,370  4.4 329,532 
 Syria 18,448,752  88.0 16,234,901 
 Taiwan 22,894,384  0.7 160,260 
 Tajikistan 7,163,506  95.0 6,805,330 
 Tanzania 36,766,356  35.0 12,868,224 
 Thailand 65,444,371  5.0 3,272,218 
 Togo 5,681,519  13.7 778,368 
 Trinidad and Tobago 1,088,644  6.0 65,318 
 Tunisia 10,074,951  99.0 9,974,201 
 Turkey 69,660,559  99.0 68,963,953 
 Turkmenistan 4,952,081  89.0 4,407,352 
 Uganda 27,269,482  15.0 4,090,422 
 Ukraine 47,425,336  0.5 237,126 
 United Arab Emirates 2,563,212  76.0 1,948,041 
 United Kingdom 60,441,457  2.7 1,631,919 
 United States 295,734,134  1.4 4,140,277 
 Uzbekistan 26,851,195  89.0 23,897,563 
 Venezuela 25,375,281  0.5 126,876 
 Vietnam 83,535,576  0.8 710,052 
 Western Sahara 273,008  99.8 272,461 
 Yemen 20,727,063  99.0 20,519,792 
 Zambia 11,261,795  1.1 123,879 
 Zimbabwe 12,746,990  1.0 127,469 
 Other 784,410,076  0.1 892,881 
 All Countries 6,386,793,850   
23.4
  1,493,776,900 

Note: Some figures are estimates, and
Muslim population figures are unavailable
for some countries.
 


Source: http://www.answers.com/topic/islam-by-country
 

17 thoughts on “The Umma’s Involuted Border

  1. There is no question that your hard work is not only bearing fruit, but also producing new growth that will yield yet other fruits in the future. You have started something that may become a veritable institution.

    I also want to give you a quirky little factoid, of sorts.

    His name escapes me at the moment, but in the 1980s, a young hot shot in artificial intelligence research from Stanford, got an appointment at a university in Texas to work on developing software that would emulate human intelligence. I believe the acronym for the project was CYC, and it may still be going.

    Several years ago, there was a documentary updating his progress. At that point, he had constructed these incredibly complex maps of network connections making up the “brain” of CYC. One objective was to feed this “brain” lots of information in order to find patterns of knowledge that would support further learning.

    He pointed out that one peculiar finding was that the “brain” came back with an observation that no Muslim organizations made up U.N. associated NGOs (non-governmental organizations). That did not seem quite right because there are groups like the Green Cross. But, on reflection, that observation may be largely true. Anyway, the researcher noted it as an odd one that he would look into. This was long before 9-11.

    This may be another “fractal” to consider. Not one of violence, but of social service. The Muslim equivalent of Catholic Relief, or Save the Children, or Oxfam would be found, if at all, to be functioning largely within its own sphere (presumably in part because of suspicious funding activities) and not doing much outreach into Christian and other communities.

  2. Baron,

    Perhaps a few teams of U.S. SF trainers, some weapons and air support could assist the persecuted Christians of southern Sudan in forming their own commonwealth. That would take a nice chunk from the middle of that green blob.

    As a former Geography undergraduate (many moons ago, B.C., before computers) I greatly appreciate your emphasis on maps and other graphics. You might become the Mackinder of the 21st century . Bravo!

  3. These maps are so interesting. Nice work. I notice that the terror attacks in Israel seem to have greatly diminished from year to year. At least your maps show fewer attacks there each year.

  4. Now I just feel guilty.

    Bravo, Baron!

    Funny how the data seem to so closely correspond with the Islamophobe’s fever dream. Almost like all that irrational fear might be… rational.

    Going to go over to Bloody Borders to see if you’ve posted larger versions of the maps for examination. 1600 x 1200 resolution makes these things like postage stamps.

  5. Mr. Sadowski —

    You’re right — I had my two variable names switched in the program code. Thanks for letting me know; I’ve fixed them in both places.

  6. a4g —

    You just love being the squeaky wheel, don’t you?

    FYI, the next addition to the project will be large-scale maps. But it may take a while.

  7. Baron,
    As always, your hard work is right on target. I can’t help but see the “Pakistan” problem. You know what makes it worse, they just banned my side blog. How cool is that?

  8. Baron,

    Your hard and diligent work is greatly appreciated. It sure makes things much clearer.

    Thanks for all you do regarding this issue.

    Hope you and yours have a great weekend.

  9. Darfur and Southern Sudan are under-reported of course, that would add in a thick solid blue band around S and W Sudan.

    Indonesia is also underrepresented in that while it has less terrorists, but more government terror in the east of that country (Papua, Ambon).

  10. Baron,
    Many thanks for the excellent cartography work. A question, does the bloody borders project have any mechanism for tracking piracy?

    Thanks again,

    Adam

  11. fieldpro —

    That’s an interesting idea. Piracy is a distinct problem, and is certainly not confined to Muslims. I’m not sure where statistics for such things are collected.

    Going into piracy is a commercial decision, and arises whenever brutal and unscrupulous people are given the opportunity. Hence the Somali pirates.

  12. Vikrant —

    I take into account whatever is in the statistics!

    I have to scrape my data from somewhere, but I don’t mind revising my source. If you have an idea for a better set of statistics, I’ll be glad to look at it.

    It just has to be consistent; i.e. the 24 million that are counted in India have to be NOT counted in Bangladesh.

    I do have a database of Indian population totals; eventually I’ll map the Indian states and India will display more than one color of green.

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