Concerning the events of the last 24 hours: the Iranian attack on Israel resembles an extravagant theatrical production. Just look at all the media hoopla about an operation that didn’t kill or seriously injure anyone.
Iran was behind the Hamas attacks last October 7. It has also been behind the recent Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel, which have driven thousands of people from their homes. Those two operations (and many others) show that the Iranians can be very effective at harming Israel when they want to.
Conclusion: the mullahs didn’t really intend to do any serious damage to Israel last night.
I’m not sure what the motivation was for all the theatre, but I’m convinced it’s theatre. Mark Steyn has reached similar conclusions. And so has Sundance at Conservative Tree House. (That last link features some plausible speculation about what’s behind the scrim.)
Everything I say here is pure speculation. I’m no expert. I don’t know what’s going on. I just know there’s more to this than meets the eye.
Whenever I encounter indications of skullduggery, the first question I ask myself is: Cui bono? In this case, the answer is not at all obvious. There are, however, some data points that are worth examining.
According to The Jerusalem Post:
Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be “within certain limits.”
Turkey, which has denounced Israel for its campaign on Gaza, said earlier on Sunday that it did not want a further escalation of tensions in the region.
The Turkish source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had spoken to both his US and Iranian counterparts in the past week to discuss the planned Iranian operation, adding Ankara had been made aware of possible developments.
So the USA gave the green light for Iran to attack Israel “within certain limits”. And what might those limits have been? Based on what eventuated last night, it seems that Iran was enjoined not to cause significant Israeli casualties or do serious damage to the infrastructure of the Jewish state.
Those are pretty hard terms for a jihad-based entity like the Islamic Republic of Iran. Why would the mullahs agree to such humiliating restrictions?
After all, the Israelis did severe damage to Iranian honor by attacking that building in Damascus and killing major Iranian assets. Iran was honor-bound to mount a decisive response against Israel. They needed something to that would make faithful Muslims take to the streets all over the world, shouting with joy and handing out candy. But they also knew that if they were effective in their actions, Israel might do them significant damage. The Jewish state is quite capable of doing grievous harm to Iran. Doing so might trigger World War Three, with mushroom clouds waiting just over the horizon, but Israel can certainly nobble Iran if the situation is dire enough to require it.
Knowing all this, the State Department made Iran an offer that would allow it to salvage its international honor without ushering in Armageddon. Presumably the panjandrums at State also had enough leverage to persuade the Israelis to go along with the dirty deal.
So that’s a possible explanation for what Iran got out of the deal. What did the USA and its British mini-me get?
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